NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for January 28, 2016, PBS - Part 1

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Deirdre Bosa, Julia Boorstin, Sharon Epperson>

World Affairs; Education>

ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and Sue Herera.

TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Big disappointment. The earnings bar was high and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) didn`t clear it, sending shares sharply lower in initial after hours trading.

SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Global gloom. Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) warns of a tough year ahead. What that says about the world economy and other companies that do business abroad.

MATHISEN: Money 101. What one high school is doing to help its students become better managers of their own money.

All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Thursday, January 28th.

HERERA: Good evening, everyone, and welcome.

The Dow rose triple digits on the busiest day for earnings this season but the big news basically came after the bell with three major reports, headlined by a big miss from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). And its stock is paying the price.

The online retail behemoth earned a dollar a share. That translates into its largest quarterly profit in its 19-year history. But investors wanted more, a lot more. Expectations were $1.56 per share. Revenue came in shy of estimates despite rising more than 20 percent from a year ago. And as for its shares, they were punished initially after that report.

Jon Fortt has more on Amazon`s results.

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JON FORTT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Big number to watch in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) earnings is really the top line revenue. Wall Street was looking for, $35.9 billion in revenue, they got $35.7 billion. EPS also missed. But really, it`s that overall growth that`s been driving the valuation for Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) web services did well. That actually beat despite high expectations. But the stock fell after hours on that top-line number.

We`ll have to see the impact is on other high-valuation stocks because this is certainly one of the ones that gets a lot of notice.

Guys, back to you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: Jon Fortt reporting for us.

A different story altogether for Dow components Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Visa (NYSE:V) which both topped profit expectations.

First, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), its growth drive anyone part by strong results from its cloud business. The company reported earnings of 78 cents a share, 7 cents better than estimates. Revenue came in slightly better than expectations, though it was down a bit from a year ago. As for shares, they rose initially after those results came out.

Josh Lipton has more on Microsoft`s quarter.

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JOSH LIPTON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The big number in Microsoft`s report, $25 billion. That is what Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported in deferred revenue. It`s an indication of future business, a gauge of consumer and commercial demand, and it beats the street`s forecast of $23 billion.

FBR`s Dan Ives says it shows momentum is building for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) in 2016 rather than slowing as it is for other enterprise tech companies.

So, what is driving that good news? Well, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) continues to execute on its cloud services meaning Office 365 and Azure, which is its answer to Amazon`s cloud business.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Josh Lipton in San Francisco.

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MATHISEN: And now to fellow Dow component Visa (NYSE:V) which also topped expectations on higher payment volumes. The world`s largest payments network operator earned 69 cents a share, one penny better than estimates. Revenue rose to $3.5 billion in the quarter. And that was up from the year ago period. Shares got a lift initially in after-hours trading.

Mary Thompson reports on the one key takeaway in Visa`s results.

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MARY THOMPSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Visa (NYSE:V) reporting strong fiscal first quarter results. The payments giant also reaffirming its outlook for the fiscal year, though it warned the strong dollar and subdued domestic activity across all geographies could prompt a change to that forecast.

Still, the news welcome, after rival American Express (NYSE:EXPR) (NYSE:AXP) cut its outlook for this year and next and Discover posted weak numbers. Visa`s adjusted earnings beat Wall Street`s forecast by a penny. Its revenue came in line with expectations.

Visa`s results helped by a 12 percent increase in payments volume growth as more and more consumers across the global are choosing to pay with debit and credit cards instead of cash.

The fees that visa generates by processing the $1.3 trillion in transactions? Well, that helps to deliver strong results for investors.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Mary Thompson.

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MATHISEN: On Wall Street as oil prices climbed. Jobless claims fell and companies reported those mixed earnings we`ve been telling you about.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 125 points to finish at 16,069, NASDAQ up 38, and the S&P 500 added 10. Oil prices also rose nearly 3 percent on production cut speculation. Even though OPEC delegates reportedly said there are no plans for supply talks.

HERERA: Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) was the biggest gainer on the blue chip index today, beating Wall Street earnings estimates. Shares rose more than 4 1/2 percent.

However, the company whose earnings are often used to measure the health of the global economy reported a sharp drop in revenue and warned of a tough year ahead. But for many investors, those results could have been much worse.

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HERERA: With the commodities crush literally digging into its bottom line and currency headwinds pushing back on profit margins, caterpillar`s fourth-quarter loss and lighter than expected sales figures were hardly a surprise. From the company`s point of view, it`s adapting to changes in the global economy, cutting costs and its outlook, hardly rosy, is perhaps not as bad as some had feared.

DOUG OBERHELMAN, CATERPILLAR CHAIRMAN & CEO: `16 is going to be rough and challenging again, I think, and given all the things going on around us. But I`m very happy with our performance in `15.

HERERA: The costs of change, restructuring, are what some accountants will tell you to ignore. In Cat`s case, ignore those costs and earnings actually beat expectations. It is still spending on things like R&D, digital applications to mine for the kind of data that can help the buyers of Cat`s heavy machinery save money in the future. That`s the kind of positioning analysts will parse carefully.

ANN DUIGNAN, J.P. MORGAN: I think it was a sigh of relief more than anything going into `16.

HERERA: In China for instance, Cat sees growth, even if it`s less growth than before.

OBERHELMAN: I think there`s an overhang of lots of things, and from commodities to you name it. But it will work out. They`re still growing at 6 percent to 7 percent a year.

HERERA: But the slow-down in China includes drastic decline in construction, lower demand for commodities, coal, iron ore and oil, and lower prices for Caterpillar`s heavy machinery. Caterpillar`s total sales peaked at almost $66 billion in 2012, but are expected to fall to $42 billion in 2016. Weak sales in Brazil aren`t helping either.

If Cat is seen as a proxy for a global economy we may be in the roughest patch wife seen in at least five years.

DUIGNAN: I have no overweight ratings in my sector. So, I`m not recommending that investors buy into machinery stocks at this point. And that`s a first for me through the course of my career. This is a unique period of time for investors, particularly in cyclical stuff.

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MATHISEN: Joining us to talk about Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and what lies ahead for it and its industry is Joel Tiss. He`s managing director of research at BMO Capital Markets.

Joel, welcome. Good to have you with us.

JOEL TISS, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS MANAGING DIR. OF RESEARCH: Thanks for having me.

MATHISEN: It`s kind of a tale of two companies. We got the late report today about Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), profits were record for the company but it missed estimates. And so, the stock goes down.

Today, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) goes up because they beat estimates even though revenues were down. And profits were really nothing to write home about.

What do you -- what do you expect going forward for this company, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT)?

TISS: I mean, we are -- we are getting close to a bottom here. The earnings peaked in 2012. So, 2016 is already going to be the fourth down year for Cat. In their whole 90-year history, they`ve never had four down years. So, we`re probably closer to the bottom than to the top.

But on some of the earlier comments about estimates better than expected, they`re 70 cents of pension games in that $4 of 2016 guidance. So, it`s not as rosy as the surface looks like.

HERERA: You know, Joel, you also think as the company said, it`s going to be tough. The next year is going to be tough. You would agree with that.

But what makes you feel as though the stock is nearer to a bottom than some others on the street?

TISS: Well, I mean, if you look at the mining industry, used to be 25 percent of Cat. Now, it`s a very small part of the company. But we`ve had, you know, like I said, we peaked in 2012.

We`re four years into cutting capacity, trying to get supply/demand into balance. Their power generation business is another 15 percent or 20 percent of the company. That`s been down for the last five years.

Construction equipment has been weak for the last three or four years. And there`s a lot of places on the planet. Brazil`s been very difficult for two years. China`s been declining for two or three years. The whole Eastern Europe and Russia has been very difficult for the last couple of years. So, you know, we`ve already taken a lot of pain here.

MATHISEN: You`ve got a target price of $60 on it, today was about $58, that suggests a pretty flat year if I`m quoting you correctly. Are there other companies in this big equipment industrial area that you like better as stock plays for `16?

TISS: I mean, similar to what Ann said earlier, that the two that I think are my top picks are ITW and Carlisle. Those are more diversified industrial companies. They`re growing somewhat through restructuring, somewhat through acquisition, a really had some of the best management teams.

You know, the more cyclical companies, there`s not a lot you can do, just waiting for markets to get better.

HERERA: So, kind to have dove tail on what Tyler was saying, as an investor, if you`re a long-term investor would you be moving into this stock at this point, if you have a long-term time horizon? Or no, not yet?

TISS: Yes. I mean, it`s still a little bit early. I think we need one more shoe to drop, and that is for investors to feel like 2017 is going to be another down year. And that`s probably going to be in the May, June, July time frame. And once that capitulation happens, I think we`re a hot closer to a buy than we are to a sell.

MATHISEN: Joel, thank you very much. Very clearly expressed, we appreciate it.

TISS: Thank you. Thanks for having me.

MATHISEN: Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets.

HERERA: The global slow-down extends far beyond China. Canada, our northern neighbor and largest trading partner, is also feeling the economic chill.

Deirdre Bosa reports from Vancouver.

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DEIRDRE BOSA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Stir fried or steam, or not at all at these prices?

Cauliflower is taking Canada by storm. Not for its taste, for its price.

This humble vegetable has become a national talking point, selling for as much as 8 Canadian dollars ahead, that`s almost US$6. Add in $2 cucumbers and celery that`s triple the price it was a year ago, and that makes for one expensive salad.

The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie, is sitting near 13-year lows, thanks to the economy`s dependence on resources and the plunge in oil prices. As Canada scrambles to diversify its growth, British Columbia`s finance minister Michael DeYoung says it could stay that way for a while.

MICHAEL DE JONG, BRITISH COLUMBIA FINANCE MINISTER: I look at other parts of the world, some of the challenges, destability that we see emerging out of the Middle East. There`s a lot of factors and variables that go -- that go into this. A lesson, of course -- don`t put all your economic eggs in one basket.

BOSA: But now, the Canadian economy is on the verge of falling back into recession. The low loonie may be driving up the cost of groceries but it`s also making Canadian real estate more attractive for outsiders.

Toni Sing is a Vancouver-based realtor.

TONI SING, BEL-AIR REALTY GROUP: The role of foreign investors in the Vancouver real estate market is huge. It has been the last little while. I think as the Canadian dollar value falls, we`ve actually known this to increase in the actual achievable sales prices.

BOSA: As Chinese market volatility continues, many are looking for a safe place to park their cash. And for many, that place is Vancouver.

BRIAN MCCAULEY, CONCERT PROPERTIES: Aside from the low dollar, it`s just a very safe market environment for us -- for others to invest in. You know, the volatility in the Chinese markets today, you see Canada is a very safe political and personal safety place to invest capital in. So, that`s not going to change either.

BOSA: But some say an increase in already white-hot prices is further fueling a bubble.

Between controlling that bubble and rebalancing Canada`s resource-dependent economy, policymakers are scrambling to prevent the Great White North from heading south again.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Deirdre Bosa, Vancouver, Canada.

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MATHISEN: Still ahead, follow the money. How much of your charitable contributions are going where they are intended to?

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MATHISEN: Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) shares soar on that strong earnings report we told you about last night. The stock closed 15 percent higher today. And that strength came from an area where Alphabet`s Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) has always dominated, with YouTube.

Julia Boorstin reports on the new threat that Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) may pose to the bigger search company.

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JULIA BOORSTIN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Facebook`s result soaring -- in part an explosion on video views and the ad possibilities they bring.

SHERYL SANDBERG, FACEBOOK, COO: Customer viewing of video on Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) continues to be really strong on our platform. Five hundred million people are watching videos every day.

In terms of our business, that creates real opportunity for us, because we want the ad format to match the format of what consumers are doing.

BOORSTIN: On Facebook`s earnings call, CEO Mark Zuckerberg talked about a new way Facebook`s quantifying demand for video.

MARK ZUCKERBERG, FACEBOOK CEO: Now, 100 million hours of video are watching daily on Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). We`ve been testing new experiences like suggested videos, which enables people to discover more videos they might be interested in. We`re also exploring ways to give people a dedicated place on Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) for when they just want to watch videos.

BOORSTIN: Analysts saying Facebook`s new strength in video grow the potential for Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) to draw eyeballs and ad dollars from the biggest video destination, YouTube, as well as from television.

MARK MAHANEY, RBC LEAD INTERNET ANALYST: At the end of the day, there`s only a finite amount of ad dollars. We`re seeing a shift of that largest bucket TV ad dollars coming over and Facebook`s a beneficiary.

BOORSTIN: And though Google`s mobile ad network may be the only one that`s still bigger than Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) has some real advantages to help it make gains.

MICHAEL GRAHAM, CANACCORD SR. ANALYST: Who has almost no revenue coming from social advertising, right? So, if you look at the ad landscape, look at how much market share Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is taking, advertisers really want to have their messages placed within social media and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) doesn`t really have an offering for them right now.

BOORSTIN: And it`s not just advertising where Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) overlap. Both companies are investing in virtual reality. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) has its Oculus headsets and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) its Cardboard headsets, and both have their own VR app stores. They`re also both investing in artificial intelligence as they fight to make their consumer experience the best.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin, in Los Angeles.

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HERERA: Under Armour (NYSE:UA) runs past Wall Street targets and that`s where we begin tonight`s "Market Focus."

The nation`s second-biggest sportswear maker beat estimates for both quarterly profit and revenue in the latest quarter. The results were helped by strong demands for its signature Steph Curry basketball shoe line. That helped drive a 95 percent increase in footwear sales in the quarter. Under Armour (NYSE:UA) shares spiked 22.5 percent to $84.07.

China-based online retailer Alibaba beat estimates and posted a 23- percent jump in the key metric of gross merchandise volume. That growth however was the slowest in more than three hours. Alibaba shares fell nearly 4 percent to $66.92.

Shares of Oshkosh were hit today after the maker of military, fire, and emergency vehicles saw profit plunge 58 percent in its latest quarter. The company says although sales of its vehicles were higher, it wasn`t enough to offset a drop in its access equipment segment. Shares of Oshkosh fell about 7.5 percent to $31.23.

Eli Lilly`s profit beat forecast helped by strong sales of its top-selling insulin drug. Revenue was flat hurt by a stronger dollar. But the company maintained its full-year outlook. Lily said it is upbeat about this year`s prospects based on half a dozen FDA approvals in 2015 and a number of successful late-stage trials. Shares fell, though, 6 percent to $76.81.

MATHISEN: Harley Davidson topped estimates with fourth quarter profit, but revenue was a bit low. The motorcycle maker gave a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2016, while noting they expect macro economic conditions to continue to be challenging. Harley up about 4 percent to $38.92.

Ford`s earnings meanwhile beat expectations and the automaker reiterated its full-year pretax forecast would be equal to or higher than 2015. Ford also said its European business returned to profitability last year with the Asia-Pacific region posting its best ever annual profit. But the company did warn its 2016 North American profit margins may not reach 2015 levels and that was enough to knock off more than 1 percent of Ford`s stock price today. It finished at $11.71.

Well, the video game publisher Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) profit beat Wall Street expectations, thanks to strong sales of its new "Star Wars" game. But the company issued a disappointing forecast for the current quarter with both earnings and revenue coming in below estimates. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) shares fell sharply in extended hours after finishes up a fraction at $69.79.

And strong sales of its blockbuster arthritis drug Enbrel helped Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) beat earnings and saw them rise 40 percent. The world`s biggest biotech drugmaker also raised its outlook for 2016. Shares initially rose in extended hours after falling more than 1 percent today to $148.35.

HERERA: The Wounded Warrior Project, the charity organization that supports veterans, has come under fire for its lavish spending. According to the charity rating agency Charity Navigator, only 60 percent of Wounded Warrior Project`s money goes towards helping veterans, compared to similar charities who spend significantly more.

So, how do you know if your charitable contributions are really going where they are intended to?

Michael Thatcher joins us, president and CEO of Charity Navigator. He joins us now.

Nice to have you here. Welcome.

MICHAEL THATCHER, CHARITY NAVIGATOR PRESIDENT & CEO: Thank you very much. A pleasure to be here.

HERERA: You know, Wounded Warrior pushed back on the various news reports about their spending, saying, in order to raise significant amounts of cash, you have to spend. Is that a valid argument? Or not?

THATCHER: I think it`s a valid argument if you can also show the effectiveness of your spending. So, am I -- as I`m investing in different projects, what are the outcomes and results of those projects? And being able to articulate that is something that`s important for donors and they need to know this.

MATHISEN: How do you grade them on that metric?

THATCHER: Today, we`re rating organizations based on their financial metrics, the accountability and transparency metrics of the organization, and we`re in the process of bringing on results reporting or impact reporting. Today when a donor really needs to be proactive, engaged with the organization, and find that out directly from the organization.

HERERA: So you basically say there are three things that you should look for, if I`m reading you correctly, when you want to donate to a charity. Overall, their "overall score", quote-unquote, their financial score, and their accountability and transparency.

So, you give them four stars on accountability and transparency, correct?

THATCHER: That`s correct. Their governance is above par. And they do an excellent job in terms of their accountability and their transparency. Where they are rated less highly, so a two-star organization from a financial perspective, and much of that is due to the distribution of where the money is going.

MATHISEN: How do they compare with other veterans assistance organizations?

THATCHER: There are a wide variety of organizations that are actually devoting more of their actual funding towards programs. So, there`s a wide variety of these --

MATHISEN: That sounds like they don`t score as well?

THATCHER: That is correct.

MATHISEN: They don`t score as well as some of their peers. Peers like? Any names come to mind?

THATCHER: I`d rather not give specific names but if you look at -- we have on our website at charitynavigator.org, you can actually see a list of charitable organizations focused on veterans.

HERERA: Which would be a good comparison tool.

THATCHER: An excellent comparison tool.

HERERA: What we want to give to our viewers, if you want to donate to an organization, take a look at these metrics. And then maybe take a look at organizations that are similar and see how they all compare, right?

THATCHER: Correct. In other words, the best thing to do, think about investing in a charitable organization the same way you would invest in the stock market. You want to look at the different financial ratios. And then you make a decision based on your feelings and what you feel is right, and are these ratios where I want to spend my money?

HERERA: Perfect analogy for this program. Thank you so much.

MATHISEN: We`re really not saying that this group doesn`t do good work, let`s be clear here, right?

HERERA: Absolutely.

MATHISEN: We`re saying maybe by some measures of financial effectiveness or efficiency, they may not measure up as well as others.

THATCHER: That`s correct.

MATHISEN: Correct?

THATCHER: That`s correct.

MATHISEN: Michael, thank you.

THATCHER: Thank you.

HERERA: Thank you, Michael. Michael Thatcher with Charity Navigator.

Coming up, making the grade. What one high school is doing to help teams make better financial decisions.

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HERERA: Here`s a look at what to watch for tomorrow.

We will get the first look at fourth quarter economic growth with the release of the GDP report. San Francisco Fed President John William is speaking, and he`s one of the first officials we`ll hear from following yesterday`s Fed decision. And the energy markets will be watching the weekly rig count which could move oil prices.

And that`s what to watch for on Friday.

MATHISEN: Whether it`s paying for college education or living on a budget, teenagers need to understand how to manage their money. Boy, do they? It`s a real-life lesson a new report today says our nation`s high schools are failing to teach.

But as Sharon Epperson tells us, that`s not the case in East Greenwich, Rhode Island.

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SHARON EPPERSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: They`re only teenagers but today`s high school students, like these seniors at East Greenwich High School in Rhode Island, often have to make tough financial decisions.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don`t think a credit card would be in my near future.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I do lay out how much money I need during the week to pay for gas or if I want to go out with friends.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The price of college today is insanely high.

EPPERSON: How to manage their money is a lesson many U.S. schools are failing to teach.

Until 2014, Rhode Island had no basic standard for teaching financial education. An issue that was a big concern to Patricia Page who spent years in the private sector before becoming a business teacher.

PATRICIA PAGE, TEACHER: We were graduating a whole generation of students that are going to be compelled to make substantive financial decisions even before they left high school walls. And they were ill-equip to do so.

Good afternoon, financial scholars.

EPPERSON: Some of Page`s students took action, successfully petitioning the state board of education to adopt financial literacy standards.

CHARLOTTE PALMER, FORMER STUDENT: It`s made me a lot more prepared --

EPPERSON: Recent graduate Charlotte Palmer was part of that influential group.

PALMER: When you learn from parents it feels the same as putting your money in a piggy bank. When you learn in a classroom, it`s learning -- seeing in the broader scope what`s going to happen to me as I`m growing up.

EPPERSON: Studies show that high school graduates who have taken a personal finance course are more likely to pay their bills on time and get higher credit scores as adults.

Still, many states do not require students to take a personal finance course to graduate.

According to the nonprofit Council for Economic Education, just 20 states require students to take an economics course before graduation. That number drops to 17 for personal finance classes. But the impact on those who take these classes is clear.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It`s important to know about the Federal Reserve because they sort of regulate the economy.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It`s definitely contributed to the successfulness of my small little business.

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