ALL IN WITH CHRIS HAYES for September 29, 2016, MSNBC - Part 2

IN-with-CHRIS-HAY-01

with-CHRIS-HAY-01

Lawrence Mishel, Cornell Belcher, Jill Hanauer >

Clinton set at Monday`s debate, baiting him with the story of Alicia

Machado, a former Miss Universe who says Trump called her "Miss Piggy" and

other insulting names, now three days later, he`s still refusing to let the

story die. With swing women, soft Republican women, soft Democrat women,

they really reject that Hillary somehow has some responsibility for her

husband`s impropriety and infidelities and they also kind of give her a

free pass, even for going on the attack. Vox`s Matt Iglesias took some time

to actually look at his trade policy, concluding it was, quote, told

nonsense, citing an economist who characterized it as a complete mess.

Donald Trump`s tweet is still up where he proclaims the concept of global

warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S.

manufacturing noncompetive. >

Women; Bill Clinton; Trade; Policies; China; Environment>

TODD: Jason, you`ve been doing this a while. You know those are bogus. All you have to do is, like, empty your history and you get to vote again. They`re not real, Jason.

MILLER: Chuck, the energy and the enthusiasm in this race is all of Mr. Trump.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: I mean, again, this is one of these things where, like, I don`t care, I don`t care, I don`t care to litigate the difference. But, like, it doesn`t matter in any grand scheme. It only matters in that the world is the way the world is, and it has not become different, like, purely through the force of will of denial by a bunch of campaign flaks.

WILSON: Look, phrenology is more accurate than online polling. Dousing is more accurate that online polling. Animal sacrifice and reading their entrails in more accurate than online polling.

HAYES: But they know that!

WILSON: And Jason knows this. He knows this. Of course he does.

HAYES: Right.

WILSON: But to be in the Trump bubble requires that you have a separate universe you live in where you, A, always use the words Mr. Trump, and B, completely deny anything based in reality or fact. You know, when they say, Mr. Trump, you`re getting -- I mean, Evan McMullin, who I work with, he`s got 3 percent among African-Americans. Now, Trump has 1, OK. These are people who live in a fantasy bubble. But they will go out and say, we`re doing great with the blacks or the African-Americans or whatever phrase they would use in their klutzy way. This is a group of people who live in a fantasy bubble where Donald Trump does no wrong. You saw some of the reporting today on how he`s, you know, requiring his surrogates to go out and say that Donald Trump won this debate --

HAYES: Yes.

WILSON: -- it was a spectacular victory.

HAYES: Yes, and you can see it all --

WILSON: This is, like Stalin-esque.

HAYES: Yes, you can see it on air all day today. It`s deeply unnerving.

WILSON: Yes, ridiculous.

HAYES: Rick Wilson, thanks for joining us.

WILSON: Thanks, Chris.

HAYES: Still ahead, Gary Johnson`s latest lapse and why that may be one of the least worrisome things about his campaign, plus an in-depth look at the millennial vote, and why the Clinton campaign is working so hard to lock it down.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We let Japan come in and dump everything right into our markets and -- it`s not free trade. They come over here, they sell their cars, their VCRs, they knock the hell out of our companies.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: You can negotiate fair trade agreements so that instead of billions and billions of dollars going out, you can reduce your taxes by having it come back in. The reason NAFTA looks OK now is because the economy is strong. But when the economy is not strong, which unfortunately will at some point happen, NAFTA`s going to look like a disaster.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: You look at some of these companies like China, Japan, India, they`re eating our lunch.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Donald Trump has been talking about trade for decades. There was one high point in Trump`s disastrous debate performance -- at least according to pundits and observers all the way from Hugh Hewitt on the right to Michael Moore on the left -- it was when Trump jousted with Hillary Clinton on trade.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: You go to New England, you go to Ohio, Pennsylvania, you go anywhere you want, Secretary Clinton, and you will see devastation where manufacture is down 30, 40, sometimes 50 percent. NAFTA is the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere, but certainly ever signed in this country. And now you want to approve Trans-Pacific Partnership. You called it the gold standard.

CLINTON: I wrote about -- well I hope --

TRUMP: You called it the gold standard of trade deals.

CLINTON: And you know what --

TRUMP: You said it`s the finest deal you`ve ever seen.

CLINTON: No.

TRUMP: And then you heard what I said about it, and all of a sudden you were against it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: According to debate dial meters in which viewers express exactly what they like and don`t like in real time, sort of, through a dial, the only area where Trump made gains was on having the right approach to trade agreements. Part of this has to do with the fact that Hillary Clinton has some credibility issues on trade herself, specifically her previous touting of the framework for TPP as secretary of state before changing her mind on it after the full agreement was finalized. And part of it is Trump`s comparative credibility on trade, a subject duly noted, he`s consistently complained about. But there`s one big thing missing from all of the analysis of Donald Trump`s performance on trade. Is his trade policy good? Does he know what he`s talking about? Does it make any sense? Those crucial questions are what we`ll be talking about after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: Donald Trump talks a lot about trade. Vox`s Matt Iglesias took some time to actually look at his trade policy, concluding it was, quote, told nonsense, citing an economist who characterized it as a complete mess.

And that`s not the first time Trump`s trade policy has been met with a rebuke from people that look at his policies. When Trump gave his big trade speech in Pennsylvania in late June, he cited research from a think tank, the Economic Policy Institute, EPI.

The president of EPI made a point of publishing a corrective to Trump`s trade speech, "The Trump Trade Scam" by Lawrence Mishel.

And Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute joins me now.

All right, good to have you.

So, look, you guys have been fighting this battle on trade for years, 20, 30 years in which economic -- the economics profession had the consensus the deals were good, but weren`t doing the kind of concentrated harm you said they were. You`ve been on the right side of this in certain ways. History has moved in your direction.

Now here comes Donald Trump to champion the cause of busting up trade deals. What say you?

LAWRENCE MISHEL, PRESIDENT, ECONOMIC POLICY INSTITUTE: Well, first, thanks for that acknowledgment. And good to be with you, Chris. It`s also important to note that it`s not just Donald Trump, but it`s also Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, everybody is now agreeing that these trade deals do harm to the vast majority of America`s workers, OK? And everybody`s against the TPP deal that`s been brought forward.

So I feel like our position has been validated across the board.

Now, Trump citing our work many times makes us very uncomfortable because nobody wanted to be associated with a bigot, but he is running what I do call as a trade scam. Let me explain that.

First, he brings up trade but he ends up spending most of his time talking about cutting corporate taxes and cutting regulation, that is actually the old tried and failed GOP policies.

Now, if cutting taxes and cutting regulations were great for the economy, we`d all be moving to Kansas where they radically cut taxes.

HAYES: Right.

MISHEL: We would all remember George W. Bush as the prosperity president and the Bush boom which we don`t. OK.

So what does he say about trade? Well, the fact is that Donald Trump thinks that he`s a great negotiator and he`s going to do great trade deals, but no one has ever asked him and he has never specified what exactly...

HAYES: Yes.

MISHEL: ...what exactly do you want to change.

HAYES: This is the thing that drives me nuts. We go -- he says NAFTA was terrible, the TPP -- look, there are things in these deals, you have to point to the specifics.

The other thing is, and I`m curious what you think about this, look, there are ways, the sort of, you know, the kind of -- the predisposition of economists to say, look, free trade and exchange makes everyone better off, which was a kind of guiding bias that I think drove the kind of Washington consensus and support for these.

The opposite of that is also true, like if you put up an 80 percent tariff on everything, if you started passing laws that companies just could not leave legally, there would be economic damage from that. You as a trade deal skeptic would concede, correct?

MISHEL: Yes, but the fact is that it`s worse than that really, Chris, because when Donald Trump says Ford Motor Company won`t be able to move jobs when I`m president, he has no way to do that. He has not specified what is he -- he can`t pass a law that says Ford Motor Company can`t move jobs to Mexico.

And the fact is that he`s not really able to fix our problems through somehow better trade agreements. I`m with Larry Summers on something, if we want to have an international economic agenda, I go for a treaty, then we should be getting countries together to figure out how do we tax corporate incomes.

HAYES: Yep.

MISHEL: Because there`s a trillion dollars a year shifted from workers to companies every year. Let`s work on that

HAYES: Yeah, that`s a good -- that would be a good thing to pursue. A quote, good deal on, right. I mean, if the idea is that you can negotiate good deals, you can get better binding good deals, there`s a lot of income that`s sloshing around and essentially being hid, and if you want to bring the world together and negotiate a good deal, that would be a good thing to pursue.

MISHEL: Let`s end the tax havens, you know. Let`s all stop, you know, where companies are going to go to different countries to get the lowest corporate tax rate. They can all stop that if they want.

So the other thing is, we need to look at what Donald omits. He would make it seem as if workers are suffering wage stagnation solely because of trade. Globalization is part of it and as you know, I`ve studied this for decades. But he omits many other things, and he`s against things like raising the minimum wage.

HAYES: Right.

MISHEL: He doesn`t want to strengthen unions. He wants a national right to work law. He now wants to raise interest rates, which will slow economic growth.

HAYES: Right.

MISHEL: And raise unemployment.

HAYES: Not no mention the majority of workers in America are in nontradeable sectors, right. So the majority of workers are not working in sectors where their jobs are being shipped. There`s a huge economic problem that lies outside of, say, manufacturing jobs going overseas. And I think Donald Trump has successfully used that has a sort of totem to invoke for all of the economy`s problems somewhat effectively, but if you go read what EPI is up to, you`ll see that`s not the whole story.

Lawrence Mishel, thank for your time. Appreciate it.

MISHEL: Thank you.

HAYES: Still to come the enthusiasm level among key voting demographic is in the tank. How can that affect Hillary Clinton ahead.

But first, tonight`s Thing One and Thing Two after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: Donald thinks that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese. I think it`s real.

TRUMP: I did not.

CLINTON: Science is real.

TRUMP: I do not say that.

CLINTON: And I think it`s important that we grip this and deal with it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Thing one tonight, he did say that. As we`ve shown many times, Donald Trump`s tweet is still up where he proclaims the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetive.

In fact, he called global warming a hoax on numerous occasions, documented.

Now, Donald Trump isn`t the only one buying into this particular conspiracy theory, a very high-stakes one I would add. It`s taken hold in the Republican Party as a whole. And we`ve seen creeping conspiracism on all sorts of issues from the most important down to the most picayune.

So, it wasn`t that surprising that after Monday`s presidential debate the conspiracy theories started rolling in.

Right after the debate, Trump speculated his microphone was defective, and wondered if it could have been tampered with on purpose. Yesterday, Newt Gingrich claimed he heard rumors that Hillary Clinton received the questions ahead of time.

Alex Jones, Info Wars consulted a poker champion to suggest Clinton was using hand signals to communicate with moderator Lester Holt.

Today on the trail, Trump came right out and said the debate was just overall a rigged deal.

There`s one new conspiracy theory that may top them all, just rolled out by the candidate. And the source, alone, sounds, itself, like a conspiracy theory. And that`s thing two in just 60 seconds.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: After Donald Trump`s disastrous debate performance, the conspiracy theories started creeping in and then came this at Trump`s rally last night.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: The new post-debate poll that just came out, the Google poll, has us leading Hillary Clinton by two points nationwide. And that`s despite the fact that Google`s search engine was suppressing the bad news about Hillary Clinton. How about that? How about that?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Well, that would be something. Google suppressing bad news about one of the candidates? Conspiracy theory that first started back in June when this video went viral accusing Google of suppressing negative searches about Clinton.

It was quickly debunked as utter nonsense. Google even posted a full explanation of their search algorithm. It seemed to put the story to rest.

Until this month when a website highlighted the original video along with a new study claiming to have found the same results. That website is called Sputnik News, that`s right, Sputnik News, part of the Russian government controlled news agency.

So, last night Trump was peddling a debunked conspiracy theory being pushed by a Russian website. Before you think this was some ad lib, or off-hand comment by the candidate, take a look again. That line was part of Donald Trump`s prepared remarks. A debunked, but scripted conspiracy theory.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: So, Libertarian Gary Johnson doing pretty well for a third-party candidate in a presidential election. Polls show Johnson with about 7 percent support nationally with much of it coming from young voters. A recent Quinnipiac University poll, 29 percent of voters under 35 said they were backing Johnson, just 2 percent less than supported Hillary Clinton.

And last night on MSNBC Johnson committed his second high-profile gaffe this month. The first was when he was asked about what he would do with a crisis in the besieged city of Aleppo in Syria and replied, quote, "what is Aleppo?"

Last night Chris Matthews asked Johnson who was participating in a town hall with his running mate Bill Weld to name his favorite foreign leader.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: You got to do this. Anywhere. Any continent. Canada, Mexico, Europe over there, Asia, South America, Africa. Name a foreign leader that you respect.

GARY JOHNSON, LIBERTARIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I guess I`m having an Aleppo moment in the former president of Mexico...

MATTHEWS: But I`m giving you the whole world.

JOHNSON: I know, I know, I know.

MATTHEWS: Anybody in the world you like. Anybody. Pick any leader.

JOHNSON: The former president of Mexico.

MATTHEWS: Which one?

JOHNSON: I`m having a brain...

MATTHEWS: Well, name anybody.

BILL WELD, VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Fox...

JOHNSON: Fox...

MATTHEWS: Who`s your favorite foreign leader, get him off the hook. Name a foreign leader.

JOHNSON: Fox. He was terrific.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Other than those gaffes, Johnson, the former Republican governor of New Mexico, is probably best known for his enthusiastic support of legalized marijuana. Johnson has openly discussed his penchant for pot though he says he no longer partakes.

Here he is in june.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: 29 years since you had a drink of alcohol.

JOHNSON: 29 years.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How long since you used marijuana?

JOHNSON: It`s been about seven weeks now.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Seven weeks, that`s not that long.

JOHNSON: No, it`s not. But it`s something that I made a decision, and I`m not casting judgment on those that do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Johnson`s stance aligns with young voters. More than two-thirds of whom support marijuana legalization, according to polling. But Johnson holds a whole host of positions that would have far more impact, one might imagine, for lives of a lot of millennial voters.

Johnson opposes Hillary Clinton`s push to make college free for most Americans, wants to repeal Obamacare, which among other things allows young people to stay on their parents` health insurance until age 26. He`s been a strong proponent of the private prison system, which is part of what incentivizes incarceration, supports the unfettered flow of money into politics like as Citizens United allowed, largely opposes regulations to combat climate change and wants to lower taxes on the rich while slashing federal spending by a gargantuan amount.

There`s a lot more where that came from. When we come back, we`re going to take an in-depth look at the millennial voters who could decide the election, just 47 percent of voters 18 to 34 say they will definitely vote this year, a far smaller percentage than other age groups.

The high stakes fight for millenials up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: Clinton campaign deployed a pair of high profile surrogates yesterday. Who they hope will boost Hillary Clinton with young voters. Bernie Sanders, Michelle Obama both urged young voters not to cast what would almost certainly be a protest vote or just not vote at all.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHELLE OBAMA, FIRST LADY: Here`s the truth, either Hillary Clinton or her opponent will be elected president this year. And if you vote for someone other than Hillary or if you don`t vote at all, then you are helping to elect Hillary`s opponent. And the stakes are far too high to take that chance.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Exit polls showed President Obama won 67 percent of voters under 30 in 2008 and 60 percent in 2012. In a four-way poll this month, Hillary was winning just 48 percent of these voters.

Joining me now, Cornell Belcher, former pollster for the Democratic National Committee, and Jill Hanauer, president and CEO of the Progressive group Project New America, which has been working with Belcher to conduct polls and focus groups to better understand this cohort of voters.

Great to have you here.

I guess let`s start with this gap that`s opened up. So there`s two things happening, it seems to me.

One is you`re seeing polling showing they`re less inclined to definitely vote this year than they were in 2012, Millennials, there`s a bigger drop-off. And also there`s more diffusion going into this sort of third party candidates.

JILL HANAUER, PROJECT NEW AMERICA: That`s right.

But I would say two things. First of all, we`re seeing her catch up in a two-away race. And she`s getting close to President Obama`s 2012...

HAYES: That`s interesting.

So, when you force the choice to two-way, she`s getting there. But the problem is it won`t be first choice. I mean, those names are going to be on the ballot.

HANAUER: Well, and Jill Stein, a number of the states she won`t be, only will Gary Johnson. But at the end of the day, two things, a, you cannot capture millennials, black, brown, Asian, Pacific, white millennials methodologically the way we used to be able to catch voters and trends. We`ve got. And Cornell`s one of the kings of methodology that actually works with millennials.

But the other thing that`s really important is this enthusiasm gap isn`t because of Hillary Clinton, it`s because millennials want problems solved. It`s about solutions, stupid. The first Clinton ran on the economy, stupid. Now it`s solutions are going to fix things. How are you going to fix things when everybody, the elite is talking about a horse race, who won or lost the debate. That`s not what they want to hear.

HAYES: But Cornell, it seems to me that Hillary Clinton is very -- she`s got a pragmatic solutions-oriented pitch and that seems to be the one really persistent gap in the Democratic primary was that she got walloped by Bernie Sanders whose approach, I think it was fair to say, was more ideological.

CORNELL BELCHER, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER: Well, let me go back to something the first lady was hitting on in talking about the third party candidates. When you get inside the data and you look and you talk about sort of the enthusiasm level. You know he was even further down on the likelihood to vote list, those millennials are are actually saying they are going to vote for a third party candidate. I mean, they`re six, seven points off.

And when you ask them, OK, who are your peers or are your friends likely to vote for? I mean, it even drops even further down below.

So, I think to a certain extent, you know, the Johnsons and the third party candidates, they are kind of straw men for protest votes.

Look, Johnson is not...

HAYES: I want to make sure I understand you, because that`s an interesting point. So, you`re saying from a methodological perspective that the poll that`s capturing a relatively large number of millennials saying they`re going to vote for Johnson is fictitious votes. There is a certain group, people who aren`t actually going to vote who are sort of invoking this as a kind of principled expression, but behaviorally we don`t think a lot of them are actually going to vote.

HANAUER: Or they`re going to come home.

BELCHER: I think that`s right.

When you get inside the data and you look at sort of how farther back they are on the likelihood to vote, and then you ask them, not yourself but your friends or your peers, which sort of takes some of the bias out of it, you know, it`s even further down.

So -- and again, they`re not that familiar with Johnson. I mean, Johnson is someone who is talking about opening up more coal plants, right? He`s not someone who is in line, necessarily with these millennial voters. I think to a certain extent, they are Hillary`s votes to get, and she desperately needs to bring them home.

And where this enthusiasm gap really hits home is in the battleground states. In Colorado, for example, 15 percent of the electorate in 2004 were under 30, 20 percent of that electorate was under 30 in 2012, 14 percent of it in 2014.

So he has a really -- so, she has a really harder road ahead of her if they in fact do sit home, which I think a lot of those third party candidate voters right now, they`re not turning out for Johnson.

HANAUER: So let me jump in about Colorado because I`m lucky that`s where I live and where my company is based even though we do research around the country. There`s a reason Colorado is still not really a battleground state, it`s because we`re happy in Colorado because it was the economy, stupid. And it was solution based. And it`s not just because people are high all the time.

And it`s because of that we are going to see Millennials...

HAYES: So, you`re confident that Hillary Clinton will win that state?

HANAUER: I am very comfortable that it`s hers to lose just like the senate race is already ours to win. And it`s because of what`s happening in realtime and politicians are going to where voters want them to be.

HAYES: Well, part of what -- that`s an interesting idea, too, because part of what the map has sort of laid out and Josh Barro has made this point, Cornell, a bunch of times about states that are that doing well -- Colorado, Virginia is doing relatively well, Texas actually is doing relatively well in the aggregate where you see very thin Trump margins where he`s underperforming. But actually this kind of -- states that are ascendent or feel like things are going pretty well are stronger for Hillary Clinton, overperforming for her.

BELCHER: Thank you, Barack Obama, right?

But back to this sort of point that we`re making overall is, look, Hillary Clinton is more in line with where these younger voters are. I mean, they do sort of pull back from labels. They do sort of pull back -- I`ve said it before. We got a lot of young voters who are Obama voters, they weren`t necessarily Democratic voters, but when you look at them on criminal justice issues, when you look at them on minimum wage, when you look at them on college affordability, she`s the candidate who has best case to make to them.

HAYES: Yeah, and we should also be clear, of course, that Millennials are not the ones that are supporting Donald Trump in terms of age cohorts. In fact, they reject him overwhelmingly.

Cornell Belcher, Jill Hanauer, thanks to you both. Appreciate it.

That is All In for this evening. The Rachel Maddow Show starts right now.

END

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END

(Copy: Content and programming copyright 2016 NBC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Copyright 2016 CQ-Roll Call, Inc. All materials herein are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission of CQ-Roll Call. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from copies of the content.)

More