MAPI: European Manufacturing Should Rebound In 2010

ARLINGTON, Va. -- Manufacturing in Europe saw an accelerated downward trend in the first part of 2009, but there is the potential for marginal improvement in 2010, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.

MAPI economist Kris Bledowski, Ph.D., forecasts a continued decline for the Eurozone economy for the second half of 2009 before a slow recovery in 2010.

The economy in Central Europe will also see a significant downturn, though it won't be as severe as that of the Eurozone. Bledowski says Central Europe should see a "shallow and hesitant" recovery in 2010.

In the Eurozone, 13 of the 14 industries will likely decline in 2009, including seven by double-digits, with motor vehicle production falling the most, by 17.9 percent.  This sector, however, should rebound with an industry-high 8 percent growth in 2010 and could be a harbinger for near across-the-board improvement. The outlook is more positive next year, with 13 industries showing growth.  In 2010 the lone industry expected to decline is textiles, by 5.9 percent. In Central Europe, a more modest 10 of 14 industries will decline in 2009.

“Clearly, trade linkages have coupled these two parts of the continent more tightly together,” Bledowski said, “but there is still a lag between an earlier and deeper recession in the Eurozone and a later and lighter recession in Central Europe.”

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