MAPI: Manufacturers Suffering But Rebound Coming

Manufacturing sector taking the brunt of a severe global recession, but the U.S. economy likely to see a gradual recovery in late 2009 and into 2010.

ARLINGTON, Va. -- The U.S. economy may see a gradual recovery in late 2009 and in 2010, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.

MAPI expects gross domestic product (GDP), which grew 1.1 percent in 2008, to decline 2.9 percent in 2009 before rebounding to 1.9 percent growth in 2010.

"We are in a severe global recession where manufacturing is taking the brunt of the decline. Fortunately, we are starting to see signs of economic conditions beginning to stabilize," said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Manufacturers/MAPI Chief Economist. "We expect that the eventual recovery will be sluggish due to continued deleveraging by consumers as they move away from excessive debt and to greater savings. Lagging improvement in the job market and persistently high unemployment rates will restrain the pace of the recovery."

Meckstroth adds that the stimulus package, tax cuts, increase in consumer spending, strengthening commodity prices, and recent improvement in the stock markets offer a 'glimmer of hope' for late 2009 into 2010.

Manufacturing production growth is expected to continue on a significant downward spiral and decline 11.8 percent this year. In 2010, it is expected to grow by 2.1 percent.

Production in non-high-tech industries is forecast to decline 11.6 percent this year before increasing by 2.1 percent in 2010. High-tech industrial production is expected to decline by 10.7 percent this year before rebounding to 8.5 percent growth in 2010.

Exports are expected to decrease by 13.6 percent in 2009 before growing 1.7 percent in 2010. Imports are forecast to decline 13.2 percent this year and increase by 7.8 percent in 2010.

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