MARIA-01
Madden, Dagen McDowell, Kevin Kelly, Cheryl Casone, Michelle Meyer, Jon
Hilsenrath, Nicole Petallides, John Matthews, Phil Flynn >
(CROSSTALK)
KELLY: They went from 1 percent up to over 5 percent, right, so 5.2 to 5 percent.
BARTIROMO: So, in a two year period they raised rates 17 times. KELLY: And this gets back to what happened with the ECB, yesterday. I mean, they`re looking at the stronger dough. They`re looking at a lot of things that are happening in the market. So, what they`re going to see is a bad number, they may raise rates at a slower pace.
CHERYL CASONE, MORNINGS WITH MARIA HOST: I think it`s so much more than just that top line number too. I mean, we talked about that, but Janet Yellen, have said throughout the whole year they are really looking at wages and labor participation rate, and that is going to be a big thing when this report comes out. Did we see more people enter back into the work force? Are they feeling optimistic about the, you know, the opportunity to participate. Will we see any movements there Michelle.
MEYER: And I think that`s something that Yellen actually talked little about yesterday, the idea that she still believes there is hidden slack in the labor market looking at these broader measures, the unemployment rate ease 6 measures, marginally attached workers to labor force. So, it`s been discouraging the fact that the participation rate has remained stubbornly low, but I think there`s still hope out there that at a minimum it could stop falling, and could start to stabilize. And that`s another reason that you want to keep policy a little bit more accommodating. If you believe there is capacity out there for people to join the labor market, you want to keep the economy growing as strong as it can, as long as it can.
HILSENRATH: But the only way to do that is actually for the Federal government to come in and actually start -- stop having growth tampering initiatives like the affordable care act, like all this overreach of regulation, right. That`s how you removed slack.
(CROSSTALK)
CASONE: You know what, that could really have a negative impact in 2016. Because it will be -- the Obamacare will be fully implemented and that means that employers will be, you know, impacted by having all of these additional costs for medical. We are seeing small businesses, even midsize business, and now it`s going to be larger employers that won`t be able to afford the health care.
(CROSSTALK)
MCDOWELL: What is the benefit though? Because getting ready for that tax.
HILSENRATH: One point on the Federal government side. We could talk all day long about the impact of regulations, and there`s a lot of talk about how that has affected the willingness of people of businesses to hire. But it is also the case that the head winds coming from fiscal spending having reseeded a little bit, and we actually could get a little bit more out of that in the next year. In other words a little more growth into this, for instance, from this highway spending bill.
BARTIROMO: Jon, let me ask you about the ECB. Did the ECB miss the mark yesterday? What a reaction. They were really -- markets were really disappointed.
HILSENRATH: Mario Draghi has developed this habit of telegraphing what it`s going to do next. And the last time he moved in January, he over delivered, so I think markets were expecting him to be fairly aggressive and they didn`t get it. You know, the ECB is another reason why we were talking earlier about how the Fed is going to be moving slowly in this whole process. You know, with the ECB in easing moves, the Fed is very reluctant to tighten very aggressively. You know, I think we`re going to have the same conversation that we had in 2015, all over again in 2016. But when are they going to do it next? Not this meeting, not that meeting, not the next meeting. It`s going to be a long wait, I think, for the second move.
BARTIROMO: That`s where they are, because he constantly comes out and says everything is on the table. We`ll do whatever it takes.
(CROSSTALK)
MCDOWELL: I actually find that irritating, that investors are so dependent on the extremely loose money and extremely cheap money. They already have negative deposit rates, negative deposit rates in an environment that is not crisis. Suck it up.
(CROSSTALK)
CASONE: I don`t know.
(CROSSTALK)
KELLY: Emerging expectations for investors and that what we saw yesterday. Draghi over promised and under delivered, but he doesn`t have that much ammo to use in his arsenal. I mean how many bonds he can buy? There is lack of liquidity in bonds for him to actually purchase. So he hasn`t affected deposit rate, which is already negative.
MEYER: A lot of it comes to the communications, has open mouth operations. One of the key ways that policy works is through guidance. So, for Draghi and for other central bankers, it is not only what they actually deliver or what they are promising about what is coming. And so I think that is what he was attempting to do, we are putting additional accommodation and we promise we`re going to remain accommodative if the economy warrants it.
BARTIROMO: Real quick with the U.S. economy, Michelle, 2016 do you expect we could go into a recession? That`s the debate arriving every day, because we know that`s caught on in the industrial side of the economy.
MEYER: You`re right. You`re right, and we listen to our analysts covering industrials. They`re so downbeat, but we are not in a recession camp. We still think that there`s room for further expansion. You know, you`re talking about low to mid 2 percent growth, it`s not a spectacular performance in the economy. But we don`t think were at the point where the business cycle is turning. There`s still room to recover.
KELLY: And the service economy is doing well.
MEYER: The services economy is doing well. The housing market has room to recover. We first finally starting to see fingers crossed, recovery wages and that`s going to be a stronger consumer spending. So there are still a lot of positive stories that you can tell outside of the weakness of the industrial sector.
BARTIROMO: Alright Michelle, good to see you.
MEYER: Good to see you.
BARTIROMO: Thanks so much, Michelle Meyer and Jon Hilsenrath, always a pleasure, we will see you soon sir.
HILSENRATH: Thanks a lot.
BARTIROMO: Thank you, 2015 officially the biggest year ever for mergers and acquisitions. We`re could be on the way, Nicole Petallides on that story this morning, next.
NICOLE PETALLIDES, FOX BUSINESS NETWORK: That`s right. Good morning Maria, good morning everybody. The Wall Street Journal reporting this year, is the biggest ever for mergers and acquisitions. There was a series of 112 small deals announced this week, that push the year into the record books of a total of just over a $4.3 trillion in global M&A volume. This is struggling beauty products company, Avon, it`s getting closer to selling its North American business to private equity firms Cerberus Capital. The Wall Street Journal reporting the deal will help to strengthen the company`s balance sheet and allows servers to become Avon`s biggest shareholder. That deal is expected to close sometime this month. And of course, some of the big deals would be Pfizer-Allergan, Dell-EMC, SABMiller and of course Anheuser-Busch InBev, those and other, Maria.
BARTIROMO: Yeah, a lot of deals, particularly in health care as well. I know that is one of the most important sectors, Nic, thank you. Don`t forget to start your day, every day with Nicole on FBN:AM, catch it right here on the Fox Business Network, each weekday 5:00 AM Eastern, right before Mornings With Maria. Up next, an arsenal of bombs and weapons found in the home of the San Bernardino shooters, as the Pakistani born wife potential terror ties our probe. We will have more about the wife, coming next. Then HBO, dropping hints about the next season of Games of Thrones, including the possible return of one beloved series regular.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Welcome back. The headliner of the Super Bowl halftime show has been announced, Cheryl Casone has it and any other stories right now, Cheryl.
CHERYL CASONE, MORNINGS WITH MARIA HOST: That`s right, good morning Maria. Well, the NFL announcing that Cold Play will lead the halftime show at Super Bowl 50, in February. The band has sold more than 80 million records worldwide. Super Bowl 50, set to take place February 7, in Santa Clara, California. A familiar face will grace the front cover of Playboy`s final nude issue. Pamela Anderson is going to be featured for a record thirteenth time, after the magazine announced in October, it will no longer show pictures of naked women. The magazine hits newsstands a week from today. She`s 48 years old, by the way. And finally, the first of Game of Thrones, teaser trailer for season 6 is here. And if you are not caught up, turn away from your television, but if you want to see this, go ahead and watch. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNINDENTIFIED MALE: The past is already written. The ink is dry.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CASONE: Games of Thrones, Maria, returns on HBO in April, a lot of excitement. Jon Snow supposedly died, but he`s on the poster. So, we will see.
BARTIROMO: Alright Cheryl, thank you. We want to turn back to top our top story, and that is the San Bernardino shootings. Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina, warning that political correctness may have been a factor in the inability to prevent this horrific massacre.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CARLY FIORINA, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is what happens. People stop talking, and we cannot stop talking. We can`t stop speaking the truth and we can`t stop saying something if we see something. But that`s the cause, when people demonize the messenger because they don`t like the message.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BARTIROMO: That was on Greta, last night. Fiorina referring to a neighbor, who claims to have seen suspicious activity regularly at the suspect`s home, but failed to report it. We want to bring in John Matthews, the executive director of the Community Safety Institute. John, what is your thought on that? Good morning.
JOHN MATTHEWS, COMMUNITY SAFETY INSTITUTE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: This is disturbing to me. We want people to come forward. In law enforcement, we depend on citizens, there about 900,000 of us, and 330 million Americans out there. We need to hear from you and we don`t want you to fear being politically correct. We respond to calls for service all the time. Suspicious people, we check them out, a delivery man, it`s a neighbor, no harm no foul, but we want to err on the side of safety, you have to give us the opportunity to check out the incident. Are they dealing drugs? Is it human trafficking? Is it possible terrorism? If we get the information we can look into it and stop these murders from occurring.
BARTIROMO: And of course we are referring to the fact that neighbors saw packages being delivered and some unusual activity in the garage, which now we know was a factory for bombs.
KELLY: Well yeah, this is the type of suspicious activity you should be able to see, right. Instead of going to bye-bye baby or babies are us, you know, they had a 6-month-old child, they`re getting all this ammunition, so it should be pretty easy to see. So, like OK, why isn`t this family pushing their daughter down the street, you know, in a stroller, instead they`re out buying magazines.
MCDOWELL: So John, I want to ask you, though. So, even if you contact law-enforcement authorities given the pressure on police officers in law enforcement across the country, are they -- how aggressively are they going to investigate that? How far can they go? How far will they go?
MATTHEWS: Well, I think we want to look into it. You know, we look into one of the deliveries, what are the times? Maybe, put some undercover officers out there. Have patrol people lookout the residence. Is what we call the totality of the circumstances and with that information we can build a case. Now, it may not be a criminal case that we are building, but we may be getting little bits of information that we can get the whole picture and say yes, you know what, something illegal is going on, we have to look into this further. But you got to give us the opportunity, you got to give us the opportunity so that we can have the information to look at it and say, yes this is an issue and we want to delve into it and stop these crimes from occurring. That`s one of the problems that we have, we have got to have that information.
CASONE: I mean, maybe now with this happening, some people will feel more comfortable, which actually making that call or contacting their local, you know, police department to say, you know I am kind of suspicious, I have seen something.
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: We need to go back to that post 9/11 mindset, Maria. We need to where -- we are under attack, we are under siege, we want to protect our friends and neighbors. And let me tell you, I heard a quote from a girl who was involved in stopping a school shooting and we asked her, why did you call the police? And she said, as simple as this, I didn`t want people to die. That`s the attitude we need to have, that the mind-set we need to have.
BARTIROMO: John, thank you, good insight from you, we appreciate that, John Matthews joining us there. Coming up next, crude-oil jumping this morning ahead of a highly anticipated OPEC meeting, we will take it to the floor of the CME, for preview. We`re going to find out if OPEC going to cut production and what does that mean for the move in oil prices. And we are also waiting for November jobs report, coming up in less than two hours, big number to likely move markets, keep it right here, back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Welcome back. Crude-oil trading higher this morning, OPEC is meeting in Vienna. Phil Flynn is standing right at the CME group. And a lot of people think this meeting is going to be packed and full. PHIL FLYNN, PRICE FUTURES GROUP: Oh my gosh, the tensions are boiling over, this going to be one of the hottest meeting in some time, And the tensions will rise even more overnight, when an interoffice report from OPEC were leaked, that Saudi Arabia in the economic council within OPEC says, that a production cuts wouldn`t really matter anyway, even if they cut production, they say it would not be enough to overtake the global economic glut. The production talks like Venezuela now with Algeria and Iran say, hey wait a second, we don`t think those numbers are right, we think we need to cut production and to be honest with you, when you look at OPEC`s projections, since 2010, they have been off by about 600,000 barrels a day. So, if they are overstating the case by that much, the production cut would definitely matter and we would see this global glut of supply disappear next year, so that is what is happening right now. Oil prices up today, a weak dollar, it`s going to be an incredible day, back to you.
BARTIROMO: So oil is up this morning on a weak dollar, but you also have this idea that if the Saudis agree with OPEC and cut production that would move oil up even further.
FLYNN: Yeah absolutely. We saw one rumor, one erroneous report that there was a possible deal to cut production, we rallied a dollar in five seconds. At the end of the day, when we talk about this, when we look at the OPEC production cut, there could be a road map for future cut.
BARTIROMO: Yeah alright, Phil thank you so much, Phil Flynn.
MCDOWELL: I`m just going to say Iranian oil is coming on the market. There 2.7 million barrels a day, ramping up to 4, and that`s glut, even if they cut would it be.
(CROSSTALK)
KELLY: We can talk about oil all day. But I mean, even the sufficient operators can make money at $3 a barrel. There`s a new happening in OPEC, I mean, Maria, you can see that happening in front of us. But look what happened, I mean, Turkey shut down a Russian plane, what happened to oil? Barely moved, it was up 2 percent, and we are even below that rate at 5 percent or 10 percent. So, it`s very interesting.
(CROSSTALK)
BARTIROMO: Really hurt stocks. And of course, it`s been down weak, for the major averages, for U.S. stocks. But there`s one sector that was really a bright spot, Nicole Petallides, looking on the bright side on this weekly ETF report, Nic.
NICOLE PETALLIDES, FOX BUSINESS NETWORK: That`s right, Maria. So we`re taking a look at TAN, this is the ETF for Guggenheim solar, it`s 5.9 percent for the week, for this exchange trading fund. And with that, there are names just as Solar City, Sun Power, First Solar, they soared, why? Well, because there was the big world`s climate conference in Paris, and those names really became right in focus. You can see the stocks did run up for the week. For example, Sun Power up at 13 percent, Solar City at 21 percent. But this group is not for the faint of heart, in fact, is a very volatile group. And for the year, it`s down 18 percent.
We have Mornings With Maria, continuing right after this break. So do stay with us, much more Maria Bartiromo and the team, right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Good Friday morning everybody. I am Maria Bartiromo, it is Friday, December 4. With me this morning, Fox Business Network, Dagen McDowell, Recon Capitals, Kevin Kelly, and Monster Worldwide, Joni Courtney on jobs. First your top stories, including the latest developments out of San Bernardino, law enforcement officials, exploring links to terrorism this morning, still no known motive just yet. A search of the suspects home however, uncovered a dozen bombs, bomb making materials, thousands of rounds of ammunition. They`re calling it a bomb making factory, the garage. We also know the names of the 14 victims who are killed. Thousands of people attended the candlelight vigil last night, in San Bernardino. We will have a live report from the scene, we`ll take you there, live. The top story for the market today, the November jobs report, we are expecting 200,000 jobs to be added to the economy last month. We are expecting the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5 percent. We are talking about where the jobs are this morning, checking the market ahead of the number, take a look.
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