The Ford F-150 has been a top-selling pickup truck in America for many years running, but a recent disaster at the plant of one of the automaker’s key suppliers speaks to the precarious nature of even the most valuable supply chains.
On September 16th, a fire took place at the Oswego, New York factory of metal manufacturer Novelis – an event that reportedly leveled the plant’s hot mill, which is the facility’s primary aluminum sheet production area.
Sources say the plant fire produced enough damage that it would pause production of 40% of the aluminum used in the U.S. automotive industry until early 2026.
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As one of several aluminum suppliers to Ford, Novelis holds a lot of cards when it comes to metal used in the F-150 and some analysts are expecting a massive hit from the shutdown.
In fact, a recent note from Evercore ISI analysts predicts Ford stands to lose up to a billion dollars from its bottom line between now and the end of the year.
Evercore believes there could be “knock-on effects” for other automakers, like Stellantis and Toyota, but that this is “largely a Ford issue.”
Notably, Ford designers switched the F-150 to a largely aluminum body several years back in order to reduce weight in the vehicle. With Ford being the Novelis plant’s biggest aluminum customer, the product fallout for its most profitable vehicle could be immense.
While Reuters reports Ford declined to comment on the Evercore note, the company did seem to downplay the impact, saying it was “working closely with Novelis” and that it has a full team dedicated to “exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions."
The biggest challenge, though, is that domestic supply is limited. Reports say Novelis is turning to overseas plants to supply customers, “though a 50% U.S. tariff on imported aluminum presents added cost challenges.”
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