Report: End Of U.S. Recession In Sight

U.S. economy improving, but recovery will likely be 'modest and fragile,' according to a report from the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.

ARLINGTON, Va. -- The U.S. economic recovery will likely be “modest and fragile,” according to a report from the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.

MAPI expects gross domestic product (GDP) to decline 2.7 percent in 2009 before rebounding to 2.1 percent growth in 2010 and 3.2 percent in 2011.

“We believe the economy has bottomed out and will post a 1.9 percent increase at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2009 and 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter,” said Daniel J. Meckstroth, MAPI’s Chief Economist. “The forecast for 2010 calls for a slight rebound in overall consumer spending based on slow personal income growth, and we look for continued improvement in the consumer sector in 2011.”

Meckstroth adds that the move from cutting inventory to adding inventory in 2010 and 2011 will help boost production. Additionally, demand for new housing and motor vehicles will enhance economic momentum.

Manufacturing production growth will likely decline 11.9 percent in 2009 before rebounding to 3.2 percent growth in 2010 and 5.1 percent growth in 2011. Production in non-high-tech industries will decline 11.8 percent this year before increasing by 1.9 percent in 2010 and 4.8 percent in 2011. High-tech industrial production is expected to rebound to 8.9 percent growth in 2010 and 15.4 percent in 2011.

Equipment and software expenditures will decrease 17.4 percent in 2009 before growing 8.9 percent in 2010 and 14.5 percent in 2011. Industrial equipment expenditures are expected to decline 22.7 percent in 2009 and decline 0.7 percent in 2010. MAPI predicts a turnaround of 20.5 percent growth in 2011.

Exports will decline by 11.8 percent in 2009 before rebounding to 5.7 percent growth in 2010 and 7.9 percent growth in 2011. Imports will decline 14 percent this year, before increasing 7.3 percent in 2010 and 5.6 percent in 2011.

Unemployment is expected to average 9.2 percent in 2009, 9.9 percent in 2010, and 9.2 percent in 2011.

The price per barrel of crude oil will likely average $56.90 in 2009, $61.90 in 2010, and $72.60 in 2011.

“There are enough economic indicators that portend an eventual recovery following a long and deep recession,” Meckstroth said, “but any rebound at this point looks to be modest, and fragile, given the unchartered waters in which this occurred.”

For more information, visit http://www.mapi.net

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