TEMPE, Ariz. — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI Report.
The report was issued Monday by Susan Spence, MBA, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
"The Manufacturing PMI registered 47.9 percent in December, a 0.3-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.2 percent in November and the lowest reading of 2025. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 68th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a fourth straight month in December following one month of growth; the figure of 47.7 percent is 0.3 percentage point higher than the 47.4 percent recorded in November. The December reading of the Production Index (51 percent) is 0.4 percentage point lower than November's figure of 51.4 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or 'increasing' territory), registering 58.5 percent, the same as November's reading. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.8 percent, up 1.8 percentage points compared to the 44 percent recorded in November. The Employment Index registered 44.9 percent, up 0.9 percentage point from November's figure of 44 percent.
"The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slower delivery performance after one month in 'faster' territory. The reading of 50.8 percent is up 1.5 percentage points from the 49.3 percent recorded in November. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM PMI Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 45.2 percent, down 3.7 percentage points compared to November's reading of 48.9 percent.
"The New Export Orders Index reading of 46.8 percent is 0.6 percentage point higher than the reading of 46.2 percent registered in November. The Imports Index registered 44.6 percent, 4.3 percentage points lower than November's reading of 48.9 percent.
"In December, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate, with pullbacks in the Production and Inventories indexes leading to the 0.3-percentage point decrease of the Manufacturing PMI. Those two subindexes increased in November, so their contraction this month continues the short-term "bubble" of improvement indicative in the last several months of PMI® data — and a hallmark of recent economic uncertainty in manufacturing.
"Although the demand indicators are still in contraction, improvement in three indexes (New Orders, Backlog of Orders and New Export Orders) and the Customers' Inventories Index remaining in 'too low' territory (and at an accelerated rate) are positive signs for December, but several consecutive months of gains in these indicators are necessary for a longer-term recovery. A 'too low' status for the Customers' Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production.
"Regarding output, the Production Index is still in expansion but slipped 0.4 percentage point, likely due to last month's drop in the New Orders and Backlog of Orders indexes. The Employment Index contracted at a slower pace, with 63 percent of panelists indicating that managing head counts is still the norm at their companies, as opposed to hiring.
"Finally, inputs (defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports) were mixed, with the Supplier Deliveries Index indicating slower deliveries, the Inventories and Imports indexes contracting strongly, and the Prices Index with the same reading as in November.
"Looking at the manufacturing economy, 85 percent of the sector's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in December, compared to 58 percent in November, and the percentage of manufacturing GDP in strong contraction (defined as a composite PMI of 45 percent or lower) increased to 43 percent, compared to 39 percent in November. The share of sector GDP with a PMI at or below 45 percent is a good metric to gauge overall manufacturing weakness. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only Computer & Electronic Products expanded in December."
The two manufacturing industries reporting growth in December are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products. The 15 industries reporting contraction in December — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
- "Winding up the year with mixed results. It has not been a great year. We have had some success holding the line on costs; however, real consumer spending is down and tariffs are ultimately to blame. I hope for some return to free trade, which is what consumers have 'voted for' with their spending." [Chemical Products]
- "Trough conditions continue: depressed business activity, some seasonal but largely impacted by customer issues due to interest rates, tariffs, low oil commodity pricing and limited housing starts." [Machinery]
- "Things are quieter regarding tariffs, but prices for all products remain higher. Our costs have increased, so we have increased prices for our customers to compensate. Margins have deteriorated, as full pass through (of cost increases) is not possible." [Computer & Electronic Products]
- "Things are not improving in the transportation equipment market. Many customers are ordering for 2026, but those orders are 20 percent to 30 percent below their historical buying patterns. Some large fleets are still completely on hold for 2026, with zero capital expenditures money available to fleet budgets. Truck rental utilization, which is a good benchmark for the health of the economy, is still below historically stable levels. The general mood of the industry is that the first half of 2026 will be another bust, and we're now hoping things pick up in the second half, even as the North American truck fleet continues to age." [Transportation Equipment]
- "In the current environment, our company is struggling with customer orders and financially overall. Our senior leaders are struggling to focus our business and get the company on track with quality products. In November, layoffs impacted about 9 percent of our workforce, affecting all locations in the U.S. and Europe." [Machinery]
- "Orders continue to drop for most of our businesses. Many plants are not running near full capacity. Make to order being utilized where possible." [Chemical Products]
- "Order levels have continued to decline: We had a bad October, an awful November and a dismal December. January and February don't look too good, as bookings are down 25 percent compared to the first two months of 2025." [Fabricated Metal Products]
- "Morale is very low across manufacturing in general. The cost of living is very high, and component costs are increasing with folks citing tariffs and other price increases. It's cold in our area of the country, absenteeism is worse around the holidays, and sales were lower than we expected for November. So, things look a bit bleak overall." [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
- "Global logistics remains sensitive to geopolitical shifts. Tariffs are influencing equipment pricing and procurement strategies. Large-scale data center programs are absorbing and reducing availability of resources for other sectors." [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
- "2025 revenue was down 17 percent due to tariffs. The lost revenue has inhibited our ability to offer bonuses to employees or create and hire for new positions." [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
