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MARIA BARTIROMO, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Good morning.
The attacks and rhetoric on the campaign trail becoming more fierce as we get a new look at where the presidential candidates stand today.
Good morning, everyone. I'm Maria Bartiromo. Welcome to SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES.
We'll have much of the focus is on Iowa this morning. One candidate has his eye on the prize in New Hampshire. Ohio Governor John Kasich will join me explaining why in moments.
Plus, the price of oil steering a wild ride for the markets and your money. What is next for the markets and your investments? You will hear see the president of a leading wealth management company.
Then, she's one of the most influential women in the Middle East, the queen of Jordan sits down with me for an exclusive interview. Her message for America on their perception of Muslims and her call for action to help Syrian refugees -- as we look ahead this morning on SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES.
And the presidential race heating up as we inch closer to the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries. New FOX polls this morning out showing the latest standings. Donald Trump expanding his lead in Iowa now with 34 percent support, distancing himself from Senator Ted Cruz who is now in second place with 23 percent.
Senator Marco Rubio, the only other candidate with double digit support in third place with now 12 percent. Trump also in the lead in New Hampshire with 31 percent there. Ted Cruz in second with 14 percent. Rubio right behind him with 13 percent. Ohio Governor John Kasich in fourth with 9 percent.
Governor Kasich has been spending much of the week in New Hampshire. He will be there through Tuesday as the majority of his competition campaigns in Iowa.
Joining me right now is Ohio Governor John Kasich.
Governor, good to see you. Thanks so much for joining us.
GOV. JOH KASICH (R-OH), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thanks, Maria. Good to be with you.
BARTIROMO: Congratulations on these latest polls. You've obviously been focused on New Hampshire. What's the strategy from your standpoint, why is New Hampshire so important as all of your competitors are focused squarely on Iowa?
KASICH: Well, we have now seen up here, Maria, I guess that would make eight polls and in six of them I'm running in second place. And there was a poll that came out of Boston among independents that essentially showed me tied among independents with Donald Trump.
So, we feel good about it. We got a lot of momentum up here. New Hampshire is 1.2 million people and you can see them all and by the end of today, I will have finished my 75th town hall meeting, which is really pretty staggering and we have a tremendous ground game. Gordon Humphrey, the former U.S. senator from here, says it is the best ground game he's seen in nine years.
So, it's important for us to do well here. Everybody says what's "well"? Well is where people like you on the 10th of February say, wow, you know, Kasich, let's talk about him. And then we would be off to South Carolina where we're already building.
So, it is important for us to do here. Our town halls are growing. We're having a lot of fun and, look, what I tell people is, yes, we have problems, but they all can be solved if we can just get the people who hold public office to be Americans before anything else.
BARTIROMO: How important are these big endorsements? Chris Christie getting a big endorsement in New Hampshire. The union leader there, Sarah Palin getting behind Donald Trump. How important are these big endorsements that make the headlines?
KASICH: Well, I have three newspaper endorsements last Sunday and received two more since. In fact, I got one today from "The Valley View News".
I think these local endorsements from the papers does matter. I'm not so sure how much out of state endorsements mean, Maria.
You know, what's interesting about New Hampshire and what I love about it is they don't really care if you're rich, if you're famous, they don't care about any of that. You know, you go in, they look at you, they take the measure of you and frankly when we get to Election Day, there is going to be probably 25 percent of the electorate who's going to walk into vote who are still undecided.
But I can see how much more serious it is today. I mean, we're only, like, 15 days out, but right after Christmas, you can see people saying this more and more seriously and focusing. I think that's a big reason why we have been rising up here.
BARTIROMO: For sure. People are focused on the issues. I want to talk to you about those issues in a moment.
Governor, stay with us. A lot to talk about with you this morning in terms of the news events of the day.
First, though, let's get a look at that, into the state that holds the first primary in the nation, New Hampshire, FOX News senior correspondent Eric Shawn joins us now looking at that.
Good morning to you, Eric.
ERIC SHAWN, FOX NEWS SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Maria. And good morning, everyone.
The fate of Governor Kasich and his rivals in New Hampshire will in turns out not be in the hands of dedicated Republicans or Democrats there. It will be decided by the state's undeclared voters. And there are more of them than members of either of the two major parties.
From the moment after midnight when those first votes from Dixville Notch roll in, the nation watches New Hampshire. That the state holds what some consider an open primary, meaning undeclared voters can cast ballots in either the Democratic or the Republican contest. All they have to do is temporarily register as a Democrat or Republican at the polling place. Then, unregister the very second after they cast their ballot.
New Hampshire's long time serving secretary of state is Bill Gardner. He says the fact that there are so many undeclared voters is all part of the state's New England independent Yankee Spirit.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BILL GARDNER, NEW HAMPSHIRE SECRETARY OF STATE: It gets wilder and wilder. That last week and that last weekend, and people want to vote on Election Day. It's the tradition.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SHAWN: And there are 229,000 registered Democrats in the state. More than 260,000 registered Republicans.
But look at this, the vast majority of voters are undeclareds, more than 383,000 of them, or about 44 percent. And polls right now show more than one-third of the undeclared voters do favor Donald Trump.
But a new FOX News poll shows of Republican voters, just over one quarter, or more than anyone else, would not vote for Trump in November.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Of the undeclareds, the fairly high percentage are one party or the other party. So, what are the number of truly independents? It's much, much smaller than the number of undeclareds, much smaller.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SHAWN: Well, in 2012, 90 percent of the undeclared voters actually cast their ballots in the Republican primary. It certainly is a defiant streak that so well fits the official state motto, "Live free or die" -- Maria.
BARTIROMO: Thanks so much. Eric Shawn with the latest there.
And we are talking with Ohio Governor John Kasich this morning.
More with you governor. New reports this morning that Michael Bloomberg may very well enter the presidential race. What do you think about that?
KASICH: Well, Michael is a smart guy. He was a good mayor of New York. He says he'll spend up to a billion dollars.
I mean, we'll see what kind of a message he has, but, you know, I like him. I think he'll make it all a lot more interesting and I will tell you this - - if he jumps in, of course, we'll be talking about a heck of a lot of issues which are really important. So, we'll see and, you know, we just don't know.
You know in politics, Maria, anything can happen. And it always does.
BARTIROMO: Governor, what do you think is the most important issue for voters now. I feel like since the last debate it has gone back and forth between the economy and national security. What do you think voters care most about right now?
KASICH: Oh, well, look, what they care most about always is the pocketbook. Now, national security, of course, has risen.
I was with the auditor of Iowa and she asked me that question. I said, "What does your daddy do?" She said, "Well, he's a hog farmer." I said, "What do you think the first thing she does in the morning?" She said, "What do you think? Check hog prices."
So, it's always about economic security. And, Maria, the other thing that I believe is the biggest issue in our country today is never give up. I mean, you get knocked down, you got to pick yourself up and hope.
You know, In my town halls we have an absolute ball. I mean, people laugh, we have a lot of serious information out there, but a lot of people have left saying, you know, I didn't feel that good coming in, but I'm leaving and I'm more hopeful. I'm really proud of that.
Because these problems can be fixed. You know it and I know it. It is not hard to fix Social Security, just have the will and the guts to get it done.
BARTIROMO: Yes, we're going to be getting some important economic data upcoming this week. What do you think is most important in terms of truly moving the needle on creation of jobs, Governor, as well as growth, getting economic growth to higher levels?
KASICH: Three things. Common sense regulations, we're not, you know, just hitting people over the head, less taxes and more clarity and finally, some fiscal discipline. It is always those three things, right? You don't want to over-regulate, you want to reduce taxes and you want to have, like, you know, sanity when it comes to fiscal policy.
Then the ground is not moving under the feet of the entrepreneurs, and you've been a great reporter on all of this, and you know that when companies or investors, people, entrepreneurs are nervous, they sit on their wallet. We can't have that anymore. And all three of those things are what exist in America today. Clean that up and you're going to see economic growth.
BARTIROMO: And then there's national security. The Obama administration now authorizing air strikes against ISIS in Afghanistan. Defense Secretary Ash Carter announcing the U.S. and six other countries have agreed to intensify the fight in Iraq and Syria as well.
What is your plan to take down ISIS?
KASICH: Well, look, I just think they're moving piecemeal. It is not going to get the job done. I mean, we're going to have to have a coalition just like we had when we fought Saddam Hussein with both Arabs and West going and taking care of this. And we have to be in the air and on the ground. And as we settle it down, we have to turn it over to the regional powers.
And I predict to you, Maria, the map of the world is going to look much different by the time things sort of settle down here. You know, the Westerners put together maps where people didn't fit together, and you're going to see a redrawing. I think it's just inevitable. We'll see.
But I think it is just too piecemeal and we're going to have to move quickly after we have a new president, especially if I happen to be that president.
BARTIROMO: Governor, we'll be watching. Thanks so much. We appreciate your time this morning.
KASICH: Thanks, Maria. Thank you. You did a great job at the debate. Great job.
BARTIROMO: Thank you so much, Governor. Appreciate that.
KASICH: All right. See you.
BARTIROMO: Governor John Kasich there.
Amid the deep chill, Wall Street heating up on Friday. Stocks rallying as oil prices recover. First big rally of the year. We'll talk about it with the president of U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management. Find out what he thinks about this $2 trillion in losses for market value.
Stay with us. Follow us on Twitter @mariabartiromo, @sundayfutures. Stay with us as we look ahead on SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Wall Street capped the week on a high note after the massive damage all year with stocks rallying on Friday. Overall, the market is off to the worst start to a year in history ever with investors increasingly nervous about the economic slowdown.
We're going to talk about that right now with Keith Banks. He's the president of U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management.
Keith, good to see you. Thanks so much for joining us.
KEITH BANKS, PRESIDENT OF U.S. TRUST: Good to see you. Thanks.
BARTIROMO: So, on Friday, we saw oil rally up to above $32 a barrel. That's important because oil has been such a weak spot.
BANKS: It has.
BARTIROMO: Why is oil so important to the stock market?
BANKS: Well, I think it's important for a couple of reasons. Number one, when you're in a downturn in the markets, people get hyper-focused on the things that aren't working. Manufacturing hasn't been working, oil hasn't been working. China hasn't been working.
But oil is interesting. Right now, oil -- if you look at high yield bonds, there is an 85 percent correlation with movements in high yield bonds and the price of oil, normally 23 percent. And for the S&P, the correlation is about 50 percent, which means and normally zero.
So, people, we got to break the link between movements in oil prices in the minds of investors and both high yield and stock prices.
BARTIROMO: Because you can't imagine that oil is going to go that much higher given the supply, right? Waiting on oil from Iran. You've got the American shale companies producing more.
So, you would think oil is going to stay at relatively low levels.
BANKS: Yes, we do. I think what you have to do this is define the bottom. I think people are worried, you're hearing stories about $14 oil and you know, it just -- it gets crazy.
So what we have to demonstrate is -- and $30, Maria, was a very important psychological level. And it represented 12-year low for oil.
So, as long as people can see some stability, even at levels around $30, I think that's enough to begin a stabilization process in the broader market.
BARTIROMO: What kind of year are you expecting? The first three weeks of the year that we had the worst opening to any year ever, does that suggest you're going to have a tough year for stock prices?
BANKS: Not necessarily. We had a confluence of things that were quite a series of issues that got people focused on negative side, right? China, oil, as we talked about, currency, worries about the broader economy because of the weakness and manufacturing.
So, we think it is going to take some time to get a footing here, but we think we can because we do not believe the U.S. is going into recession. We do not believe global growth is going to tip over into recession. And as we get more indications of that, that you'll see continued growth in the U.S. and globally, and you see it through earnings, I think all of these things will ultimately contribute to the markets moving higher.
As we put it in recent report we wrote, this too shall pass, but it is going to take time, there will be more volatility and there could be some more downside in the process.
BARTIROMO: And this is important because that's exactly what oil is telling us. Oil at low levels is indicating a slowdown on the global economy. Is it going to hit the U.S. as hard as some people think? Now, you are in the looking for recession, but a lot of people are.
BANKS: Yes, we are not. I think a lot of what oil is reflecting is China, and concerns about what will the growth rate ultimately be in China and, again, we think that number or that range is 5 percent to 6 percent.
If you think it's going to be 3 percent to 4 percent, that's a different story. It's different story for global growth, different story for oil prices, but we don't see that.
Importantly for the U.S., China only represents about less than 8 percent of exports. So, it's the indirect impact if it does, in fact, slow global growth.
BARTIROMO: That is important.
So, what are you looking for in terms of U.S. growth and how does that impact U.S. earnings?
BANKS: So, we think the U.S. can grow somewhere in the 2 percent, 2.5 percent, maybe higher than that. We have thought and continue to believe that earnings in the U.S. will come in somewhere in the 5 percent to 6 percent range.
Now, originally, we thought there would be no ability for the multiples to go higher, because it's at 17 plus times, your near peek levels. But now with the forward earnings at less than 15 time, we think there is a valuation underpinning, and if you see 5 percent to 6 percent earnings growth, which we do think you will, that can set the stage for price appreciation of 5 percent, 6 percent, and maybe around 2,100 on the S&P 500 and throw some dividend yield.
What's interesting, Maria, is 55 percent of S&P 500 stocks today have a yield higher than the 10-year treasury.
BARTIROMO: That is.
BANKS: So, again, you're seeing certain things just tell you we're getting closer, may not be there yet, but these are encouraging signs.
BARTIROMO: And people like to invest in companies that pay out dividends, so that's a --
BANKS: Dividend payers and dividend growers, I think critically important, along with strong balance sheets.
BARTIROMO: Keith, good to see you.
BANKS: Always good to be here.
BARTIROMO: Thank you so much for your insight. Keith Banks, president at U.S. Trust.
One of the most influential women in the Middle East takes a stand against ISIS and the negative comments about Muslims. My exclusive interview next with the queen of Jordan, Queen Rania, on SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Secretary of State John Kerry this morning calling on at least 10 new countries to take in Syrian refugees, asking donors to pledge at least $10 billion in the humanitarian effort.
Secretary Kerry at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that is where I caught up with Queen Rania, exclusively, the queen of Jordan, to get her take on the Syrian refugee crisis.
The perception of Muslims in America and the fight against ISIS.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
QUEEN RANIA, QUEEN CONSORT OF JORDAN: The two things I would like people to understand is that, first of all, Islam in no way condones the actions of these extremists. Those barbaric savage acts that we've been seeing on TV, the public beheadings, the rapes, the slavery, the mass murders, there is nothing in Islam that condones those kinds of actions.
Now I know that some people say there are verses in the Koran that refer to violence, but I would say that there are such verses in the bible as well. And, you know, if you take something out of context and manipulate it to serve your agenda, and, you know, these people are not bound by any morality or any constraints, so they say whatever they want. But there really is nothing in the holy script that actually condones these kinds of actions.
The second thing that I want people to know is that those people do not represent the 1.6 billion Muslims around the world, who just want to live in peace and get on with their lives.
So, as a Muslim community, although we have to all stand up and confront them, and confront them aggressively, at the same time, we can't bear responsibility collectively, for their actions. And, you know, looking around the world, it's kind of unsettling to see how much people associate Islam with hate and violence and, you know, these people when they commit such atrocious acts and they attribute them to Islam, it provokes a feeling of mistrust and that's something that we don't need.
You know, sometimes you feel there is Islamophobia. I want people to remember that these groups have killed more Muslims than non-Muslims and they targeted more Muslim cities than to have targets in the West. So, for example, like 10 years ago, they targeted three hotels in Jordan and killed dozens and we see every day countries like Egypt and Tunisia and Libya reeling under the threat of those extremists.
So, you know, they are operating under the false banner of Islam. They are nothing to do with faith and everything to do with fanaticism. And we have to stand up and can confront them.
We also need to understand though we need to confront them very aggressively, militarily, in the battlefield, that this is also an ideological war. And you can't kill an idea with a bullet. The only way you can kill an idea is to propose a better one. And that is what we need to do.
We need to recruit young people who speak the language of the Internet, to offer a counter narrative and to expose them for who they truly are -- a group of people who are outlaws, who are morally bankrupt, who are -- who have no faith, and who have nothing to offer except -- that's why they resort to fear, because they have nothing to offer.
BARTIROMO: There is a debate going on in terms of technology companies. What should technology companies do in terms of tracking the bad guys, ISIS, other terrorists?
QUEEN RANIA: The Internet was very effective in trying to fight child pornography and issues like that, you know? So, we have to -- we have to use the same kind of strategy to find this menace, which is threatening the entire international community. And, you know, non-state actors like ISIS are much more nimble at using technology and adapting than state institutions.
So, that's why we need to have private sector, we need to have young people who can just help us to identify the credible voices and amplify them and expose these people who they are.
BARTIROMO: So, which brings me to the Syrian refugee crisis and tragedy. Jordan has taken in many refugees, more than 1 million.
QUEEN RANIA: We have 1.3, that's 20 percent of our population. And 90 percent of them do not live in camps. They actually live in our towns and cities, which has placed a tremendous amount of pressure on our infrastructure, both social and physical, on our economy. We have schools that have become crowded, our clinics, our social services, really reaching a breaking point.
And Jordanians have really shown a lot of heart and hospitality and generosity. But we're reaching a point now where kindness alone is not going to solve the problem because Jordanians' patience is running thin. We don't have -- I think there is a misconception sometimes in the West that Jordan is a resource rich country like the rest of the Arab nations, we're not. We import most of our energy needs and we weren't in an economic situation before the crisis.
BARTIROMO: What about the idea of creating safe haven on the border of Syria for the refugees, which is something that is being talked about in the U.S. right now?
QUEEN RANIA: You know, the most important thing that we need to secure is a cease-fire in Syria. So, that the political process can start moving.
With regards to having a safe haven, it's difficult to have that if there is no cease-fire.
BARTIROMO: In the meantime, one of the reasons for this raging debate certainly in America is because there are reports and people believe that ISIS has, in fact, infiltrated the Syrian refugee flow. And then you see the events in Cologne, Germany, where, you know, those women were attacked by a thousand men who they believed to be Syrian refugees.
What do you say to those people who say, look, I understand we want to be taking them in, but how can we knowing all of this?
QUEEN RANIA: You know, what happened in Cologne is reprehensible. You know, it was a despicable, unacceptable act. And I hope that the perpetrators of those actions will be brought to justice and my heart goes out to all the women who had to experience that, and to really any woman in the world who experiences violence because I think everywhere in the world there is so much more to do to protect women against such crimes.
But at the same time, what the -- what doubles the effect of what they do, not only do they hurt these women, but they tarnish their reputation of all of the other Syrian refugees who as we all have seen have taken treacherous journeys, risked their lives and the lives of their children on flimsy rubber boats just to seek some kind of safe haven because what they're escaping is so much worse. And they didn't do all of that just so they can go and break the law in another country.
And the German leadership and people have shown tremendous compassion and courage in dealing with this crisis. But what I find heartening is a lot of the Syrian refugees themselves have participated in protests against what happened in Cologne, condemned them, and when we talk about how many of them have been infiltrated, I think we need a lot of vetting, a lot of screening, but to just assume that all of them are terrorists is also depriving the vast majority of hope.
BARTIROMO: What is the sentiment of the people in Jordan to America right now? How do people feel about America? I mean, you know, there is a debate about the strategy as it relates to our foreign policy, because of drawing a red line and not following in Syria, not supporting Egypt and then pulling out of Iraq. So, that's sort of in the backdrop.
And then there is the whole conversation about the Muslim faith.
QUEEN RANIA: Well, I think people are not very clear about what the strategy of the U.S. is in the Middle East. And I think the vast majority of Jordanians just feel like, you know, we need support, that we're having to shoulder this burden, this humanitarian burden, one of the worst humanitarian crisis of our time, truly human tragedy.
And we feel that it is a crisis of such exceptional scale, that requires exceptional responses. And I think that vast majority of Jordanians would like to see more engagement from the international community to help us deal with this issue. And now, it's an election year in the U.S., and I think everybody is waiting to see what is going to come out of it.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BARTIROMO: And for more of my conversation with Queen Rania of Jordan, be sure to tune into "Mornings with Maria" on the FOX Business Network tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m. on the FOX Business Network. Join us for more of Queen Rania.
Donald Trump says he has most loyal supporters, but his analogy of just how loyal they are raising eyebrows this morning. We'll tell you about what he said next on SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES with our panel. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SHAWN: From "America's News Headquarters", I'm Eric Shawn. Here are some other stories making headlines at this hour.
East Coast digging out now from that big snowstorm. It is being blamed sadly for costing at least 20 lives, from car accidents, heart attacks from shoveling and hypothermia. New York City lifting the travel ban this morning, 26.8 inches of snow piled up in Central Park, that is the most recorded there since 1869.
