MAPI: Modest Rebound Ahead For Manufacturing

ARLINGTON, Va. -- U.S. manufacturing production continued to fall in the first quarter of 2009, but a modest rebound is possible in 2010, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.

"Unfortunately, there are no quick fixes," said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Chief Economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI. "The deleveraging of the American consumer is ongoing and will continue for years. With heavy job loss, relatively low wage growth, tightened credit, falling housing prices, and declining stock wealth, consumers are cutting spending for big-ticket and discretionary items in order to build up depleted saving reserves. Business spending for capital goods is also in full retreat."

Meckstroth added that the government stimulus, lower commodity prices, lower mortgage rates, and declining imports will contribute to a modest rebound in industrial production.

MAPI expects manufacturing production to fall 12 percent in 2009 and grow 2 percent in 2010.

Production in non-high-tech manufacturing fell by a 22 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2009. It is expected to decline 12 percent this year before increasing 2 percent in 2010.

High-tech industrial production fell at a 22 percent annual rate in the first quarter. MAPI predicts it will decline 11 percent this year and grow 9 percent in 2010.

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