MAPI Expects Sluggish Recovery

ARLINGTON, Va. -- The U.S. economy is poised to return to growth, though it will be at more of a modest rate than the typical recovery from previous recessions, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Quarterly Economic Forecast.

MAPI expects inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) to decline 2.5 percent in 2009 prior to rebounding to 2.4 percent growth in 2010 and 3.5 percent in 2011.

“We are pleased there is growth in the overall economy, and surprisingly strong growth in manufacturing,” said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Chief Economist.  “Yet by historical standards it is still modest compared to recoveries from past recessions.

“Manufacturing production growth, at 4.6 percent, will grow faster than the general economy, at 2.4 percent, in 2010,” he said. “An inventory swing in the goods producing sector is a major reason for the acceleration in manufacturing production.  We expect manufacturing growth to be led by high technology products, semiconductors, and computers.”

High-tech manufacturing production is expected to jump to 15.9 percent growth in 2010 and 17.5 percent growth in 2011. Production in non-high-tech industries is expected to fall 11.3 percent in 2009 before increasing 2.3 percent in 2010 and 5.8 percent in 2011.

Industrial equipment expenditures are expected to decline 22.7 percent this year, but should recover with 3.5 percent growth in 2010 and 22.6 percent growth in 2011.

Exports are likely to decrease 10.8 percent in 2009 before rebounding to 7.6 percent growth in 2010 and 9.5 percent growth in 2011. Imports are expected to fall 14.5 percent this year, followed by an 8.3 percent increase in 2010, and a 6.3 percent increase in 2011.

MAPI expects the price per barrel of imported crude to average $59.10 in 2009, before moving up to $69.80 per barrel in 2010 and $73.50 per barrel in 2011.

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