NOW-WITH-01
Track Immigrants; Children of Aleppo Struggle to Understand War; Social
Divisions Linger in French Suburbs; Japan's Prime Minister Meets with
Donald Trump - Part 2>
Melissa Bell, Andrew Stevens, Isa Soares, Brian Stelter>
press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Potential proposal
to use a system to track people coming to the United States from high risk
countries. Families struggle to find food and aid in Aleppo after heavy
airstrikes resumed. Poor suburbs in the outskirts of Paris known as
banlieue suffering from discrimination because of its history. Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe to meet with Trump in New York. >
Immigration; Aleppo; Families; Shinzo Abe; Government>
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: Still ahead on THE WORLD RIGHT NOW we'll introduce you to a man known as the prediction professor. He predicted a Trump win when many didn't but say there's a very good chance he'll be impeached. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GORANI: Welcome back.
U.S. President Barack Obama says he hopes Donald Trump won't not cut deals with Russia that leave the American people vulnerable. He was speaking in Berlin today on the last stop of his European tour as president. Mr. Obama called Chancellor Angela Merkel his greatest international ally.
Also among the stories we're following, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's transition team has wrapped up its first daily conference call briefing the media on plans moving forward. A spokesman outlined some of the meetings Trump is having including his first face-to-face talk with a world leader, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe later on Thursday.
And also this just in, a battle for the leadership of the Democrats in the House of Representatives is underway. Ohio's Tim Ryan is going to challenge the House veteran Nancy Pelosi saying more voices are needed at the Democratic leadership table.
Now Donald Trump is about to have his first face-to-face meeting with a world leader since becoming president. The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as we've been discussing, he is -- you see him there -- he's on his way to New York.
CNN's Andrew Stevens tells us why Mr. Abe is so keen to get a first word with the incoming president.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANDREW STEVENS, CNN ASIA-PACIFIC EDITOR (voice-over): Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is making every attempt to preserve Japan's relationship with its most important political, diplomatic, and trading partner, the United States. Normally a Japanese leader would wait for the inauguration of a new U.S. president before seeking a meeting, but these are not normal times.
SHINZO ABE, JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER (Through Translator): The Japan-U.S. align is the access of Japan's diplomacy and security. The alliance is only alive if there is trust between us.
DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT-ELECT: I will get rid of those tariffs in Japan.
STEVENS: Tokyo has been rocked by Donald Trump's explosive comments on the campaign trail raising fears that the new administration could turn its back on the alliance. Trump has hinted he could withdraw U.S. troops from Japan unless it paid a bigger share of their upkeep suggested that Asian countries could provide their own nuclear defense against North Korea.
TRUMP: North Korea has nukes, Japan has a problem with that. I mean, they have a big problem with that. Maybe they would in fact be better off if they defend themselves from North Korea. Maybe it would be better off --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: With nukes?
TRUMP: Including with nukes. Yes.
STEVENS: And then there is Trump's opposition to global trade deals including the President Obama-led Transpacific Partnership which has had the wholehearted support of Mr. Abe.
TRUMP: I'll take jobs back from Japan and every other country that's killing us. I'll bring the jobs back.
STEVENS: But Abe advisers say Tokyo is looking beyond what they described as campaign rhetoric.
TOMOHIKO TANIGUCHI, SPECIAL ADVISER TO THE PRIME MINISTER: We're looking at the future and no matter what any candidate says during the campaign. Today is the first day of the rest of his administration.
STEVENS: The first step of that first day for Japan to build a working relationship. Abe has already praised what he described as Trump's, quote, "extraordinary talents as a businessman."
TANIGUCHI: This is going to be very much a classic ice breaking opportunity for both of these people.
STEVENS: Analysts say don't expect any key decisions to come from this meeting but with regional tensions on the rise from North Korea's nuclear program, to China's expansion into the South China Sea, it is likely to provide the first indication of what Donald Trump's Asia strategy will look like.
The world is watching.
Andrew Stevens, CNN.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: Donald Trump's victory took many people by surprise at home and around the world. But one political historian predicted Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton on November 8th. Professor Allan Lichtman of American University joins me now from Washington.
First of all, Professor, let me share with people what you said six days before the election.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALLAN LICHTMAN, DISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: I have 13 key factors developed by looking at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980. I developed it in '81.
And the key is basically gauged the strength and performance of the party holding the White House, the Democrats. And if six or more of the keys go against that party, they are predicted losers. And right now very, very narrowly, by the skin of their teeth there are six keys out against the incumbent Democrats, so they are predicted losers.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: The Democrats are predicted losers. The Democrats did lose on November 8th, so you were one of the few people presumably not too surprised that day.
LICHTMAN: That's right and my secret is to get the polls, to get the pundits, pay no attention to the twists and turns of campaign events, look at pattern of history as gauged by the keys which examine the strength and performance of the party holding the White House and there were many elements that indicated the vulnerability of the Democrats that had nothing to do with anything that the media spent millions of words talking about. Things like the lack of domestic policy accomplishment in the second term. The lack of a big splashy foreign policy success. Like the dispatch of bin Laden in the first term. A pasting in the midterm elections of 2014. A contentious nomination struggle. The fact that the sitting president couldn't run again. These and other indicators which tapped into the deep structure of what really drive election results pointed to this Democratic loss.
GORANI: So this is a series of 13 true or false statements. But let me ask you about traditional polling, because not just for this election, but as you know for Brexit, for the U.K. general election, pretty much all the polls were wrong. Some of them showed perhaps a closer race, but really in their majority, the polls, the polling companies, got it wrong.
LICHTMAN: That's what --
GORANI: What's going on with traditional -- yes. But I mean, it hasn't always been the case. Polls were pretty much usually a pretty reliable indicator of Election Day, but now it seems they were wildly inaccurate. What has been going on in the last few years?
LICHTMAN: Well, they've always been somewhat -- in 2012 they did not portend the big Obama victory. They showed basically that the contest was even between Romney and Obama. Here's the problem with the polls. Polls are not predictors. They are abused and misused as predictors. They're snapshots. And there's no reality against which to check a poll because the votes haven't been counted yet and you don't know --
(CROSSTALK)
GORANI: But if you have 50 -- sorry to jump in, if you 50 snapshots in a row, and every snapshot indicates one outcome, how can -- I mean, just -- what I mean is, at that point do you never poll again? Do we just throw polls out the window and forget that a poll could ever be an indicator for the future? How do we use them?
LICHTMAN: I think you should throw polls out the window because they not only can be very inaccurate and systematically wrong, not just randomly wrong as they were this time, but they promote lazy, superficial journalism. You don't even have to get out of bed in the morning to write a story about the polls and to portray misleadingly elections as though they were horse races with candidates sprinting ahead and falling behind every day and the pollsters keeping score.
And then the pundits commenting about it. This whole industry that thrives and makes money on misleading horse race coverage and misses all the deeper forces that drive elections. Does anyone remember one word the pundits said this year?
GORANI: Well, we remember those that didn't turn out to be true for sure and it is the case that polls were probably overused in the sense that many people believe they were predictors more than they should have as you say, but we hindsight is 20/20.
Let me ask you a little bit about, though, your next prediction, which is not a scientific one, which is that you believe Trump will be impeached. How do you -- how do you reach that conclusion?
LICHTMAN: As you say it's just speculation out of my gut, but I've got good reasons.
GORANI: OK.
LICHTMAN: One, one of the Lichtman rules of politics is, what you see is what you get. Candidates don't change. It's like you marry someone, you think you're going to change your spouse, forget it, it doesn't happen.
GORANI: OK.
LICHTMAN: Donald Trump throughout his career has played fast and loose with the law. We know he ran an illegal charity, unregistered in New York. We know he made an illegal campaign contribution out of that charity. The strong reason to believe that he used the charity to settle personal business debts. He faces a civil racketeering lawsuit on Trump University. A dozen women have accused him of sexual harassment or --
GORANI: But he's not been convicted of anything. I mean this is --
LICHTMAN: No.
GORANI: These are all accusations and ongoing --
LICHTMAN: No, no, but not accusations. No, no. He has been convicted of making the illegal campaign contribution. He had to pay a fine to the IRS. He has admitted that he did not register his charity and he stopped raising funds in New York.
The documentation is very strong and unrefuted that he settled personal business debts, as is the documentation very strong that he broke the Cuban embargo at a time when that was a serious crime.
GORANI: So let's --
LICHTMAN: You don't have to be convicted in a court of law to have analysis and opinions about what a candidate has done in his life.
GORANI: But if you look at -- of course as you know, both Houses of Congress are controlled by the GOP, so in other words, you know, you have to have the political will to do anything.
LICHTMAN: Absolutely.
GORANI: So therefore, how do you -- how does your gut feeling sort of square off with that reality, that political reality on Capitol Hill?
LICHTMAN: Second part of my analysis. Donald Trump is a wild card. He is uncontrollable. Republicans love control. They would much prefer to have Donald -- rather than Donald Trump, to have Mike Pence as president, the predictable, controllable, down the line Christian conservative Republican. And one other thing that's happened since. Donald Trump has turned his business over to his children which means it's still in the family. He wants to get top security clearances for them.
We don't know what his ties are because he hasn't released any tax returns to Russia and China. We could be heading for a huge train wreck between national security and the Trump private business interests and that would anger even Republicans.
GORANI: All right, thank you very much, Professor Allan Lichtman of American University. OK, one of the few people who saw this Trump victory coming. Thanks for joining us on CNN.
LICHTMAN: Thank you. Great interview.
GORANI: We appreciate it.
Much of how Donald Trump will handle foreign policy remains a mystery, but could global warming help leave relations with China a little bit frostier? A Beijing delegate has hit back at Trump's 2012 claim that climate change is a Chinese hoax. You remember that one. Something very much on the minds of world leaders in Morocco right now.
Isa Soares is in Marrakech.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ISA SOARES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Trump is not a name leaders want to discuss here, but among the diplomacy and the smiles, they are quietly sweating over his skepticism on climate change and there's no avoiding it.
UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: Can you comment on the election of President-elect Trump in the United States?
BAN KI-MOON, U.N. SECRETARY-GENERAL: I'm sure that he will understand this, he will listen and that he will evaluate his campaign remarks.
SOARES: The fear here is that the president-elect could undo the climate change agreement signed by nearly 200 countries last year in Paris.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are a little bit worried, but we are going to let -- the system of legislation -- may not allow him to undo all the gains from the successful Paris agreement.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There's momentum here with or without the U.S.
SOARES: They have reason to worry. The president-elect has called climate change a hoax, created by and for the Chinese, in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive. He's even hinted at cancelling the Paris agreement and reviving the U.S. coal and gas industry.
(On camera): In legal terms, U.S. President-elect Trump could not pull out of the Paris agreement. He would have to trigger Article 28. That's the provision within the actual agreement and that could take as many as four years by which point his term will have ended. But there's a much quicker and faster way if he does want out. And that's simply to ignore the commitments set in place by U.S. President Barack Obama.
(Voice-over): U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry wants to avoid this at all costs.
JOHN KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE: No one has a right to make decisions that affect billions of people based on solely ideology or without proper input.
SOARES: Europe, too, is pushing for this, sounding alarm bells and calling on Trump to stick to the accord.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We need the United States on board and we will do any effort to have them on board and to convince them that this is a win-win policy.
SOARES: But whilst many at this conference are optimistic the president- elect will change his mind, some of his supporters here are hoping he doesn't budge.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We stand in solidarity with President-elect Trump and this is going to be the first step toward doing it. This is our shredding of the documents.
SOARES: Isa Soares, CNN, Marrakech, Morocco.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: We have people in Washington who's just getting started. Today we learned that the U.S. director of National Intelligence has submitted his resignation. James Clapper says he has 64 days left in the post. His resignation not a huge surprise. He's apparently been telling people for months that he had days to go until his retirement. Today Clapper told a U.S. committee that the U.S. is facing the most diverse array of threats he has ever seen, but apparently he said he felt quite good about the fact he was stepping down.
Hillary Clinton has made her first public speech since conceding the election to Donald Trump. She was emotional about it. She addressed supporters at the Children's Defense Fund. She acknowledged that she was - - she experienced her painful loss and had this to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON (D), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now I will admit that coming here tonight wasn't the easiest thing for me. There have been a few times this past week when all I wanted to do was just to curl up with a good book or our dogs and never leave the house again.
I know that over the past week a lot of people have asked themselves whether America is the country we thought it was. The divisions laid bare by this election run deep. Please listen to me when I say this. America is worth it. Our children are worth it. Believe in our country. Fight for our values and never ever give up.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: The Children's Defense Fund has personal significance for Clinton. She worked there as an intern at the very start of her career.
A lot more to come on the program. Pepsi is at the center of a controversy over something that never actually happened. Talk about fake news stories.
We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GORANI: It's a name normally associated with cool, refreshing drinks. But now Pepsi is in hot water with some Trump supporters. They are threatening to boycott the brand over a comment that was never made, that was later proved to be fake. An online story claimed Pepsi's CEO told Trump fans to take their business elsewhere.
So it's not just a single fake story, it doubled up with more fake news about the stock price for PepsiCo?
BRIAN STELTER, CNN SENIOR MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: That's right. It becomes a whole network of fake stories. You know, there's been a lot of conversation I think about so-called fake news. And what I mean by that they're not stories that are misleading or partisan. I mean just made-up news. And this is an example of that.
The CEO of Pepsi never said that Trump supporters should take their business elsewhere. But dozens of fake but real-looking Web sites did report that. They were shared widely on Facebook and Twitter. And it became this sort of controversy really out of nothing. When in reality the CEO of Pepsi spoke at a "New York Times," conference said that some of her employees were very upset about Trump's election.
They were scared, they were nervous, they were anxious, but she congratulated President-elect Trump on his victory and never said anything about Trump supporters taking their business elsewhere.
GORANI: But do we know why they took aim at Pepsi in particular if she didn't say these things?
STELTER: You know, I think what happens to these cases sometimes is there is one grain of truth, so in this case the CEO was saying that some of her employees were upset. They take one grain of truth, then these fake news sites build a mountain of lies all on top of that one single grain.
Now I personally do wonder if the fact that the CEO is a minority and is a woman has something to do with it.
We've seen Trump supporters, fringe and anti, you know, women, Trump supporters on Twitter and Facebook oftentimes target famous women, whether that's Megyn Kelly or new other news anchors or other CEOs. You know, it's hard to say how these things develop, though. All I know for sure, Hala, if I had hair, I'd be pulling it out because these fake stories continue to spread more and more and more.
GORANI: Yes.
STELTER: And there's a lot more Facebook and Twitter could be doing about it.
GORANI: Right. And there -- it's frustrating for people whose jobs are based on facts and who actually have to, you know, base their reporting on fact and not just make stuff up.
STELTER: Yes.
GORANI: Let's talk -- you mentioned Megyn Kelly. Let's talk about here. She's on a book tour right now. She talked about some of the threats directed at her in the aftermath of that first debate. Let's listen to what she told Anderson Cooper.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MEGYN KELLY, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: So Michael Cohen, who is Trump's top lawyer, and an executive vice president with the Trump Organization had re-tweeted "let's gut her" about me at a time when the threat level was very high, which he knew, and Bill Shine, an executive vice president of FOX, called him up to say, you've got to stop this. Like we understand you're angry, but this is -- you know, she's got three kids, she's walking around New York, really. And he didn't much care. And what Bill Shine said to Michael Cohen was, let me put it to you in terms you can understand. If Megyn Kelly gets killed, it's not going to help your candidate.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: So, Brian, it sounds like they were really taking this seriously. That they believe there were physical or threats -- physical threats against her. What did they do? What did FOX do about this at the time?
STELTER: Well, for one, Kelly travelled with security guards for many, many months. FOX did take the threat seriously. In fact when journalists like myself tried to write about those threats, we were asked by FOX not to, and that's a common practice in journalism and other professions. When someone is facing those kinds of security concerns, the last thing you want to do is draw more attention to it. So in the case of Kelly, she did not talk about this at the time, did not talk about it during the election, only talked about it afterwards, after the election.
GORANI: OK. Brian Stelter, thanks very much. Our senior media correspondent in New York with the latest on that.
And don't forget, you can get our news, interviews, analysis on our Facebook page, facebook.com/halagoraniCNN. We'll be right back, stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GORANI: Casablanca has always been Morocco's economics capital as we continue our "On Morocco" series. (INAUDIBLE) takes a look at how the famous city is opening its doors to international business.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: For many people, the city of Casablanca is forever associated with one thing, the iconic 1942 movie. The Moroccan government is trying to forge a new identity as a major hub of international commerce, getting foreign companies to invest in Morocco and outsource their business there is a key part of that plan.
(INAUDIBLE) works for the company that manages (INAUDIBLE) Shore, one of the biggest and most developed business parks in all of North Africa.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It was created as part of the emergence plan. This plan started in early 2000. Part of this plan was to create this park, which is dedicated to a business park for companies to come and outsource whatever they want to outsource in this country.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The park has more than 300,000 square meters of office space and more than 60 companies and 18,000 employees work there every day. Tech giants like Dell, IBM, and Hewitt-Packard already there. And Morocco is confident that a variety of incentives will bring more big names their way.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So for example, they offered a lower tax ceiling, and they also give subsidies for phone call training.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Casablanca is looking to use everything at its disposal to try to attract business people. And its vibrant culture has quickly become a major asset.
Salvador Sanchez and his business partner co-own one of the restaurants in the city that cater to an after-work crowd.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People work very hard in Casablanca. It's a very big city, very big city. The economical heart of Morocco so when they can come and have a drink and they have places like us where we try to make them feel comfortable and we have different spaces where they can relax themselves or either receive people to talk about business.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Casablanca is famous for its food and nightlife, making it a destination city. But every destination still needs a place for its visitors to stay. And the hotel industry is trying to cater their hospitality to the business people flooding in.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Business travelers, I think one of the main point of localization. For example, the Sofitel Casablanca, she's well situated in the center of the city. Nearby all of the name center of the interest to be in a relaxing atmosphere or a friendly atmosphere, even to sign a contract is not necessary to be in a business meeting room. You can sign a contract even drinking a cocktail, you know?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The city is undergoing a modern renaissance and driving foreign investment is the name of the game. Soon the name Casablanca could get world famous all over again for a whole new set of reasons.
Eleny (INAUDIBLE), CNN.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: All right, I'm Hala Gorani. This is has been THE WORLD RIGHT NOW. I'll see you tomorrow, same place, same time. "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS" is next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, the Dow bounces back, but only just. I don't want you to expect any records for me today. Trading has come to an end on Wall Street. It's Thursday, November 17th.
Tonight Mr. Trump will see you now. Japan's prime minister is on his way to Trump Tower. No transition needed at the Federal Reserve.
END
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