REPO-01
Boorstin, Jackie DeAngelis, Phil LeBeau>
Markets; North Dakota; Energy>
ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and Sue Herera.
SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Trade threat. Will China punish companies like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Boeing (NYSE:BA) if Donald Trump follows through on some of his campaign promises?
TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Bond market rout. Treasury yields hit their highs for the year as prices fall. And fresh money pushes the Dow to yet another record. What`s next for your fixed income portfolio?
HERERA: Bitter fight. Why tensions are rising in North Dakota over a major pipeline project.
Those stories and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Monday, November 14th.
MATHISEN: Good evening, everyone, and welcome.
The Dow sets yet another record, but we begin tonight with China`s warning shot. The world`s second largest economy said President-elect Donald Trump would be naive to launch an all-out trade war against China. An op-ed in the Chinese-backed newspaper, "The Global Times" said any new tariffs would trigger immediate countermeasures from Beijing.
This comes in response to Donald Trump repeatedly saying on the campaign trail that the U.S. would punish Beijing with high import tariffs in response to what he considers unfair trade practices. He also wants to brand China a currency manipulator.
The stakes, of course, could not be higher. Americans love iPhones and other goods, from furniture to Nike (NYSE:NKE), they get at low cost from China. But they resent the job loss that many rightly or wrongly lay at Beijing`s doorstep.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT-ELECT: With China, they dump their product all over the place.
MATHISEN: So declares the president-elect.
But China is not taking those kinds of words sitting down. The country warning the president-elect that it will meet a trade war with a trade war. The state-run "Global Times" newspaper telling President-elect Trump what that might look like.
"A batch of Boeing (NYSE:BA) orders will be replaced by Airbus," it says. "U.S. auto and iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and U.S. soybean and maize imports will be halted."
China buys more than $116 billion worth of American goods every year, but China, of course, sells more than four times that amount, about half a trillion dollars worth to the United States. Easily making China the number one seller of goods to the U.S.
It`s a sore spot that Donald Trump jabbed at repeatedly during the bitter presidential campaign.
TRUMP: Our president has allowed China to continue its economic assault on American jobs and wealth. China is responsible for nearly half of our entire trade deficit.
MATHISEN: The trade imbalance isn`t the only front Trump opened with China.
TRUMP: China engages in illegal export subsidies, prohibited currency manipulation.
MATHISEN: China wants its currency to carry a punch across the Pacific, but a slowing economy forced it to devalue the yuan 14 months ago. That moved sent global markets on a wild ride. Also and perhaps even more ominous, China has made no secret of its desire to keep the U.S. Navy out of the important shipping lanes in the South China Sea.
There`s potential for some common ground between the Trump administration and China. Neither are fans of the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership.
TRUMP: The TPP creates a new international commission that makes decisions the American people are no longer given the right to veto.
MATHISEN: Bottom line: which Donald Trump will move into the White House January 20th? The fiery campaigner ready to joust with Beijing, or a pragmatic deal maker who can accurately calibrate the pluses and minuses of a tougher stance with a critical economic competitor and partner?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HERERA: Bill Adams joins us now to talk more about U.S./China relations and whether or not we might see a trade war between the two countries. He is senior international economist at PNC Financial.
Bill, welcome. Nice to have you here.
I want to pick up --
BILL ADAMS, PNC FINANCIAL SR. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIST: Thanks for having me.
HERERA: -- from where Tyler left off in that piece.
What`s said on the campaign trail, it does not necessarily play out the way it is said once you get into the office of the presidency. So, given that, and we heard that from President Obama today as well, given that, how would you characterize Donald Trump and his relationship with China?
ADAMS: Well, thinking about the U.S. relationship with China generally, it`s a complex relationship. We have areas of cooperation and areas where we get along quite well, and then we have other areas of intense friction, and that`s inevitable when you have two very different countries, very different economies like the democratic capitalist U.S. and China socialist country run by a communist party.
MATHISEN: Are there areas, Bill, where a Trump administration might be very aggressive with China, for example, in protecting American intellectual property, and other areas where they might be more inclined to bargain or dial back some of the staunchest rhetoric?
ADAMS: I think the enforcement of intellectual property rights and the new administration`s pledge that they`re going to respond to Chinese theft of U.S. intellectual property, I think we will -- that will be a touch point in the next couple of years. But I think the new administration also wants to protect U.S. exports from Chinese retaliation.
So, in previous administrations, we have seen tariffs imposed on China. The Obama administration imposed tariffs on Chinese steel and Chinese tires. The George W. Bush administration imposed tariffs on Chinese steel in 2002, but the overall relationship went on.
HERERA: So given that, given what you`ve just laid out, how likely do you think it would be that we would get into a so-called trade war?
ADAMS: Well, I think that there are a lot of areas of mutual interest, and I`m not -- there`s so much trade -- there`s so much rhetoric that happens every campaign season, that I`m looking to what happens next with an open mind.
HERERA: On that note, Bill, thank you. Bill Adams with PNC Financial.
ADAMS: Thank you.
MATHISEN: On Wall Street, the Dow rose for a sixth straight day, closing at another record, as investors evaluate the prospects for economic growth following last week`s election. The blue chip Dow index added 21 points to an all-time high of 18,868. Otherwise, though, the day was kind of flattish. The NASDAQ off 18, the S&P 500 down a quarter point.
HERERA: In Washington, President Obama held his first news conference since the election and shared some thoughts on the next president of the United States, Donald Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I also think that he is coming to this office with fewer set hard and fast policy prescriptions than a lot of other presidents might be arriving with. I don`t think he is ideological. I think ultimately he is pragmatic in that way. And that can serve him well, as long as he`s got good people around him and he has a clear sense of direction.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HERERA: John Harwood is in Washington tonight.
Good to see you, John, as always.
The president is about to embark on an overseas trip. What did he tell the press corps that he`s going to tell foreign leaders about President-elect Trump when it comes to NATO specifically?
JOHN HARWOOD, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Well, he indicated he thought that President-elect Trump would be a supporter of NATO, notwithstanding some of the rhetoric about getting other countries to pay more. I think more broadly he`s going to emphasize the continuity of American government. He talked about government being an ocean liner, not a speed boat, you can`t turn it quickly and those are words meant to reassure foreign leaders who have made agreements with the United States of various kinds that you can`t just turn on a dime and things will not be disrupted too rapidly.
MATHISEN: What did he say, if anything, about the Iran deal? Any changes to that or, for example, to the Paris climate accords?
HARWOOD: Well, on both of those things, Tyler, he expressed the same view as an orientation that he did about Obamacare, which President-elect Trump has indicated in the campaign he wanted to do away with, but it`s more complicated and difficult to change something that already exists. In the same vein, he indicated that the Iranian nuclear deal, by the estimate of Israeli intelligence officials, is working and, therefore, to try to unravel it would complicate our relationships with our allies, who negotiated that deal with us.
The same is true with Paris climate agreement. That`s a voluntary agreement. It`s easier to get out -- get the United States out of it, but he`s trying to make the case that once we have entered into negotiations with other countries and made deals that they have relied upon, he`s appealing to that pragmatism we heard in that sound bite to say don`t go so fast, it`s more difficult than you think.
HERERA: On that note, John, thanks so much. John Harwood in Washington tonight.
MATHISEN: House Republicans are threatening to challenge President Obama`s retirement savings rule once Donald Trump takes office. The so-called Fiduciary Rule set to take effect in April requires that brokers and investment advisers put their clients` interests ahead of their own. GOP Congresswoman Ann Wagner says the rule hurts low and middle income retirement savers. She wrote legislation last year to block its enactment but it was vetoed.
HERERA: President-elect Trump is already having a big impact on the nation`s housing market. Interest rates have gone up and mortgage rates have followed. So, what else might a Trump administration have in store?
Diana Olick has some possible answers.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DIANA OLICK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The price tag for a home just got a little higher today, as the continued sell-off in the bond market pushed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate across the 4 percent line. That`s the highest in almost a year and up dramatically from just a week ago. Words like "panic" and "damage control" were floating around lender land as borrowers tried to lock at lower rates.
While the immediate Trump effect was negative for borrowers, if the president-elect keeps his word in deregulating the financial system, getting a mortgage could get easier. Lending has been tight due to endless lawsuits that continue even years after the housing crash.
TIM ROOD, THE COLLINGWOOD GROUP CHAIRMAN: So, just getting them to holster their weapons and say, look, we`re going to put a moratorium and we`re going to stall on any of these existing Department of Justice investigations or suits until further notice.
OLICK: If the banks see less risk, they may open the gates wider to borrowers, but new regulations on lending from the CFPB are unlikely to change soon. Dave Stevens, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association said barring a change at the CFPB it`s hard to see much change in the near term.
Then there are mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are still under government conservatorship. Their stock actually moved higher with some investors thinking they`ll be recapitalized and released, but Donald Trump said nothing about the two during the campaign. Now, we have a Republican-controlled Congress, and the mortgage giants generate billions of dollars that go straight to the treasury. That money could be well spent on the infrastructure projects Donald Trump has promised.
ROOD: The GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are throwing off roughly around $15 billion a year in cash to the treasury. That pays a lot of bills.
OLICK: Housing is likely low on the president-elect`s to do list. The recovery is bumpy but not broken. So, why jump in to try to fix it.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MATHISEN: Investors are also trying to figure out how a Trump presidency may impact the media sector. And as Julia Boorstin reports, for digital video companies, the stakes are higher than ever.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JULIA BOORSTIN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Twitter, Snapchat, they`re all doubling down on video, saying it`s key to their future, joining Google`s YouTube, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Hulu, a range of companies counting on streaming video to drive subscription and advertising revenue. Many of their stocks under pressure in the wake of the election as President-elect Donald Trump is expected to threaten the FCC`s net neutrality rules, which mandate that broadband providers don`t discriminate against different types of content running on their pipes and prohibit Internet providers from charging video companies such as Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) or YouTube for faster service to users.
BARTON CROCKETT, FBR CAPITAL MARKETS: The cable companies have complained that under Obama, the FCC has been unfair, not allowing them to get money from people like Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) or HBO or others to help them cover the cost of building the technology to carry this high bandwidth video. And, you know, the early kind of sense from Trump is that the cable companies may get the better of the argument.
BOORSTIN: So what is President-elect Trump planning? He tweeted two years ago that net neutrality was just another way to attack conservative media and he said on the campaign trail that he wanted to reverse President Obama`s key policies, net neutrality being one of them.
President-elect Trump would face a lengthy legislative process to turn back the clock on net neutrality legislation, but he could select a more cable- friendly FCC chairman who could take a looser view of how the rules should be interpreted.
CROCKETT: What he`s got to do is he`s got to open up the gates for the toll collector on the Internet. If he follows through with what we`re hearing right now, and that would be a little bit hurtful for the earnings at Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and helpful for someone like a Charter or a Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) (NYSE:CCS).
BOORSTIN: But Crockett also notes that it`s unclear exactly what Trump will do. It will play out over many months. As investors and industry players carefully watch Trump`s nominees, to roles like the chair of the FCC, and as they listen carefully to his rhetoric.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin in Los Angeles.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MATHISEN: Still ahead, two sides, one pipeline, and a lot of protesters in North Dakota.
(MUSIC)
HERERA: The Army Corps of Engineers is delaying its decision on the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline, saying it wants to study the issue further. That statement comes as tensions between those in favor and those against the pipeline intensify.
Jackie DeAngelis reports from Bismarck, North Dakota.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BOB PISANI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Since April, the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe has been at this camp protesting the construction of this 1,100-plus mile pipeline that would bring crude oil from the Bakken to Illinois, then eventually to the Gulf Coast. Demonstrations have been peaceful here, but up the road clashes with police have gotten violent in the last few months.
On one side, you have the Native Americans trying to protect their sacred grounds from disturbance and environmental issues. On the other, there`s Energy Transfer Partners, the pipeline company trying to forge forward, saying this project is pivotal for U.S. infrastructure.
The chairman of the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe says if the decision isn`t favorable, we`ll forge forward in this fight.
DAVID ARCHAMBAULT II, STANDING ROCK SIOUX, CHAIRMAN: I think that no matter what happens, the future has pipelines coming, regardless, because of the dependence on fossil fuels. And so, this is just one fight, but there will be many.
DEANGELIS: But ETP is equally committed. When asked what a plan B might look like, the CEO Kelcy Warren said this.
KELCY WARREN, ENERGY TRANSFER PARTNERS (NYSE:ETP) CHAIRMAN & CEO: We will protect our people from bodily harm and we will complete our pipeline. The same crude is being transported today by rail and is crossing the river today by rail. This is so much safer. I don`t even have to justify that.
DEANGELIS: To further complicate matters, many expect that no matter which way this decision goes, both sides, including the protesters behind me, will appeal to the Trump administration. Remember that President-elect Trump has already vowed to be pro-business, to roll back regulation that will help infrastructure projects like the Dakota Access Pipeline go through.
While Trump hasn`t commented on this project specifically, any decision he would make is already being questioned, given that he owns ETP stock and the company`s CEO made donations to his campaign. Still, the shale revolution in the Bakken has tapped into resources that this country needs to be energy independent. Part of that process requires transporting oil around. Pipelines are thought to be safer than rail car transport.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Jackie DeAngelis in Bismarck, North Dakota.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MATHISEN: Samsung strikes a multi-billion dollar deal with Harman International and that is where we begin tonight`s "Market Focus".
The smartphone maker said it would take over the automotive technology company for $8 billion in an effort to establish its presence in the connective technologies market. In addition to providing Samsung, which has had a tough year, as you know, with products, Harman`s CEO told CNBC the merger will create many opportunities for growth.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DINESH PALIWAL, HARMAN INTERNATIONAL CHMN. AND CEO: Very excited about the future not just in automotive, but what about our connected car audio systems, individual sound zone. Homes are going also connected home with all IoT. So, this is another synergy with all the television, the display technology of Samsung and our audio technology and our brand in professional and at home.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATHISEN: Shares of Harman surged 25 percent to $109.72.
Germany`s Siemens will buy the software maker Mentor Graphics (NASDAQ:MENT) in a deal valued at $4.5 billion. The merger expected to expand Siemens` presence in the U.S. while also helping it grow its software business. Mentor Graphics (NASDAQ:MENT) saw its shares pop 18 percent to $36.29.
And the cigarette maker Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI) has reportedly rejected a $47 billion takeover offer from British American Tobacco, saying the price was just too low. Bloomberg says the companies are again in talks and British American allegedly is open to improving its initial offer. Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI) shares were down 53 cents, as you see there, at $53.05. BAT`s shares were off nearly 2 percent at $106.09.
HERERA: Shares of Kate Spade rallied after the handbag and accessories company received a letter from a shareholder asking that company to pursue a sale. A hedge fund Caerus Investors says it has become increasingly frustrated with that company`s inability to achieve profit margins comparable to the industry peers. Shares rose 7 percent to $17.93.
The conclusion of a ten-year drug study found that Pfizer`s arthritis treatment, Celebrex, was as safe as prescription strength ibuprofen and naproxen. There had been concern Celebrex might cause heart problems similar to Merck`s Vioxx which was pulled a decade ago. Shares were off a fraction to $32.38.
And Puma Biotechnology saw its shares plunge after new trial data for the company`s breast cancer drug revealed worsening gastrointestinal side effects. The company is also being investigated to determine whether Puma`s management made false or misleading statements about the medication`s trial results. Shares plunged 20 percent to $40.10.
MATHISEN: Well, as we told you at the beginning of the program, the Dow closed at a record high yet again, up for the sixth straight day, on hopes that the President-elect Donald Trump can revive economic growth.
So, what`s next for stocks and what about bonds, which are selling off hard? Michael Farr, president of money management Farr, Miller and Washington, joins us now.
Michael, always good to see you.
Anything new in Washington these days?
MICHAEL FARR, PRESIDENT, FARR, MILLER AND WASHINGTON: It`s been kind of quiet here, Tyler.
MATHISEN: I`m sure it has been.
FARR: Not a lot of news.
MATHISEN: We`ll get to stocks in a minute. The bond market certainly seems to be saying something. Tell me what it is that it`s saying and tell me what it implies for what I should do if I`m among the millions of Americans who have poured money into bonds and bond funds lately.
FARR: Right. On the bond market, Tyler, I think we`re seeing two things. The markets reacting to President-elect Trump`s promises for infrastructure spending and lower taxes, and that basically he`s going to spend a lot of money, which is going to increase the debt and a lot more bonds out there and a lot more supply of bonds means higher interest rates.
Also, it is kind of confrontational talk with a lot of foreign entities that own a lot of U.S. bonds like China. They own a lot of bonds. If they were to start to sell that could drive rates higher too. I think there are a couple of things sending rates higher right now, but that is going to mean if this continues, higher rates for buying a car or a higher mortgage for buying a house. We`ve seen those mortgage rates pick up as well.
You asked about the bond funds. If you hold bond funds, you will see those prices drop. We have seen some pretty good drops and even the ETFs, some of the municipal ETFs and others. You should kind of expect it. As these rates go higher, these bond prices will come down.
If you have a bond holding as part of your financial plan, you really should stick with it and not panic, but I think probably something towards the shorter end of the bond curve makes more sense.
HERERA: And what about stocks, because we have seen this kind of parabolic move upwards and we`re at another record high, Michael, and some people say that`s gone too far too fast.
FARR: It certainly feels like it has, but you know, we`re in this strange time, Sue, where I don`t think we`ve seen a lot of this kind of thing before. We`ve just gotten used to a market that`s been driven by monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve and these near zero interest rates forever have taken us to 17 times earnings.
And now, we`re getting the promise of more money, fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, corporate tax cuts, repatriation of dollars from overseas. More money and more debt spending seems to be those expectations because we haven`t begun to see the process begin yet. Expectations of all that additional debt and new dollars seem to be taking a lot of prices higher.
MATHISEN: Right.
FARR: So, for the short term, it certainly feels good. There could be some real benefits of the infrastructure spending and lower cut tax, but any time I see a market at 17 times earnings, that`s getting more expensive, I think you have to be cautious.
MATHISEN: We have to leave it there. Michael Farr, thanks very much.
Michael Farr with Farr, Miller and Washington.
FARR: Thanks.
HERERA: Coming up, the need for speed. What Porsche is doing to win over buyers in the market for luxury cars.
(MUSIC)
HERERA: Porsche is California dreaming with a new experience center outside Los Angeles for those who have always dreamed of pushing a Porsche to the limit. Speed and power are part of the luxury brand`s latest move to win over buyers in the country`s biggest market for high-end cars, California.
Phil LeBeau reports from Carson in the Golden State.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PHIL LEBEAU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The roar of the engine says it all. Porsche`s new experience center in southern California is for those with a thirst for speed.
OLIVER BLUME, PORSCHE CEO: It`s very important that our customers have an opportunity to test their cars go up to the limit and test their cars on a track like this.
LEBEAU: Four-point-one miles of track filled with twists and turns, as well as a skid pad for doing a doughnut or two gives Porsche`s experience center a wide variety of driving options and that`s the idea. Porsche spent $60 million creating a place it hopes will attract not only fans of Porsche, but luxury sports cars in general -- people who make California the biggest and most lucrative market for these high-end cars.
BLUME: (INAUDIBLE) most of our cars in the U.S. We sell in California. And especially, our customers in California are very passionate for our brand. They are racers and therefore, this track is a very good opportunity.
LEBEAU: So what`s it like to push a Porsche over 100 miles per hour? It`s quite a rush.
Porsche believes this is what will convince thousands of visitors to pay between $385 and well over $1,000 to slide behind the wheel for a day or two, and maybe a few will end their drive saying, Porsche, there is no substitute.
Yeah!
Phil LeBeau, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Carson, California.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MATHISEN: Some sad news tonight from our public television family, Gwen Ifill, veteran journalist and co-host of PBS`s "NewsHour" and moderator of "Washington Week" has died after a battle with cancer. The executive producer of "NewsHour" called her a standard bearer for courage, fairness and integrity in an industry going through seismic change. The head of WETA in Washington called Ifill one of the leading lights in journalism, and we agree. Gwen Ifill was 61.
HERERA: And that`s it for us tonight on NBR. I`m Sue Herera, thanks for joining us.
MATHISEN: And I`m Tyler Mathisen. Thanks from me as well. Have a great evening, everyone. We`ll see you back here tomorrow night.
END
Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post broadcast at http://nbr.com. The program is transcribed by CQRC Transcriptions, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. (c) 2016 CNBC, Inc.
(Copy: Content and programming copyright 2016 CNBC, Inc. Copyright 2016 CQ- Roll Call, Inc. All materials herein are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission of CQ-Roll Call. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from copies of the content.)