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Liesman, John Harwood, Julia Boorstin, Robert Frank, Susan Li>
Economy; Housing; Real Estate; Business; Policies; Taxes>
ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and Sue Herera.
TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: All-time high. The Trump rally continues, sending the Dow to a record, although not all sectors go along for the ride. What should you do now?
Trumped up. After the election, mortgage rates spike. Is it temporary, or the new normal in housing?
And, taxing question. How much will you get if a Trump tax plan goes through?
All that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Thursday, November 10th.
Good evening, everyone. And welcome. Sue Herera has the night off.
Well, call it the Trump rally day two. It is early, very, very early. But all the naysayers and prognosticators who said the Trump win would send stocks down hard have been off the mark. Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, supposedly a snapshot of the economy and home of some of the bluest of blue chips rocketed to a record close.
But not everyone participated. We`ll have more on that in just a moment.
The Dow rose 218 points to 18,807, a record. The NASDAQ lost 42. And the S&P 500 rose four.
Bob Pisani has more on the rally.
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BOB PISANI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: What a week of trading. We went from rallying on Monday, going into the election, to down 800 points the night of the election, to soaring to record heights just today.
What`s going on? There`s a new trading mentality on Wall Street right now. Let`s call it the reflation trade. Buy into sectors that will benefit from less regulation and more fiscal stimulus, that means spending. Infrastructure names like Martin Marietta Materials (NYSE:MLM) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD), and bank stocks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) all hit new highs today.
Now, on the other side, on the downside, interest rate sensitive groups like telecom, real estate, and utilities are being hit by concerns of higher interest rates. And big tech like Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) are down on trade concerns.
So, this can this continue these trends? Well, sure they can, but we may be approaching the limits to how far banks and pharmaceuticals, for example, can go without very specific changes in the legislation. We need to see that. We need to hear more on the specifics of less regulation, more stimulus, and tax reform. And that may not happen until January.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.
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MATHISEN: As Bob mentioned, big name tech stocks have not participated in this post-election stock euphoria.
Deirdre Bosa tells us more now on why this notable group is sitting out the rally.
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DEIRDRE BOSA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Transition begins to a Trump administration, shock waves are reverberating throughout Silicon Valley. Executives are grappling with a new reality.
This morning, Alphabet`s executive chairman, Eric Schmidt, acknowledged the stakes.
ERIC SCHMIDT, ALPHABET EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN: The top five most valued companies in America today are Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). So, if the all R team is very focused on big business, there`s five businesses right there.
What do each and every one of those companies need? High value, high quality, high levels of education immigration. Every one of them is powered completely by those policies, which have been stuck for 20 years.
BOSA: But those policies may be changing as a new order takes over, one that has become increasingly hostile.
Never before has the tech industry been so united against a presidential candidate than it was against Donald Trump. Trump took shots at some of the biggest names in tech. He called for a boycott on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), claimed that IBM was moving jobs outside the U.S., and suggested that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) was an illegal monopoly.
In response, Amazon`s CEO Jeff Bezos offered to send Trump to space. But today, he congratulated the president-elect and wished him success.
In a memo to employees, Apple`s chief Tim Cook said the company`s North Star hasn`t changed and the only way to move forward is to move forward together.
But some were not as hopeful. Slack CEO Stuart Butterfield said he was heartbroken. While Shervin Pishevar, co-founder of Hyperloop One, suggested that California secede.
Trump`s hard line stance on immigration is also at odds with the industry`s push for immigration reform, another point Schmidt addressed.
SCHMIDT: We bring these incredibly intelligent people into our country. We have the best educational system by far, at the college and graduate school level. We kick them out after giving them these incredibly expensive degrees, which we helped subsidized, and then they go and create competitors to our companies, right? Now, come on, guys. Let`s fix that.
BOSA: There was one prominent in tech who did back Trump -- billionaire investor Peter Thiel. Though his support put him at odds with most Silicon Valley, he is now perhaps ironically one of the few people in tech who will have the new president`s ear.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Deirdre Bosa, San Francisco.
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MATHISEN: Well, the dust hadn`t settled on election night or early morning before bond yields started to rise. And, of course, with rising yields comes rising mortgage rates.
Diana Olick on what the spike means.
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DIANA OLICK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: As President-elect Donald Trump met with leaders in Washington today, investors around the world continued to back out of the bond market, which in turn pushed U.S. mortgage rates, which loosely followed bond yields to their biggest two-day gain in three years.
MATTHEW GRAHAM, MORTGAGE NEWS DAILY: In terms of actual interest rates, we moved a quarter of a point higher in two days. And that is relatively unheard of. This is sort of thing we can count without using any of our toes, going back at least a decade. So, it`s definitely a big spike.
OLICK: The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgages are still historically low, below 4 percent. But the increase would definitely cost buyers in their monthly payment. It could actually keep some buyers from qualifying for a loan. Rising rates also just plain scare buyers.
GRAHAM: Psychologically, we feel like 3.875 is a much higher rate than 3.625, if that`s what we`re looking at, and that`s what we had access two days ago. So, I think the psychological impact is fairly substantial.
OLICK: On the larger scale, the rise in interest rates is also hitting the stocks of REITs, which invest in commercial real estate. REITs, which offer high dividends, are a low yield play.
ALEXANDER GOLDFARB, SANDLER O`NEILL: REITs are derivative of interest rates and the economy. So, if you have interest rates that are going up, that`s going to send REITs down. The flip side of that is that the economy does better, that should help rent growth, which should help REITs.
OLICK: It really is a grand irony. Donald Trump rode to victory on an electorate looking for a better economy and a better standard of living. But the initial financial market reaction made mortgages more expensive and could push rents even higher.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Diana Olick in Washington.
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MATHISEN: So, can the Trump stock market rally continue? And how did so many get it so wrong? The question of the week, I suppose.
Joining us now to discuss, David Lebovitz, global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and Brian Rehling, co-head of global fixed income at Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Investment Institute.
David, can this rally continue or is it time for a little breather here?
DAVID LEBOVITZ, J.P. MORGAN ASSET MGMT GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST: So, I wouldn`t be surprised to see this rally take a breather. I think there`s a still a lot of uncertainty around what President-elect Trump`s policies will be.
Obviously, stocks have been rallying on the idea of higher infrastructure spending, you know, decreased regulation, that all sounds very good. But the proof will be in the pudding. We need to get a better sense what his policies are going to look like in order for this rally to be extended.
So, I wouldn`t be surprised to see stocks, interest rates, take a breather, settle at the levels they`re currently sitting at, and await more information. I mean, that`s really the missing piece to this puzzle.
MATHISEN: Brian, let`s get some thoughts on bonds. What is the bond market saying?
BRIAN REHLING, WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE: Well, the bond market is reacting to all the factors that are occurring in the equity markets. So, both -- when people buy equities, they tend to sell bonds, in simplistic terms. But also on the fiscal outlook, if we get more fiscal spending, we could see growth rates and also inflation increase. That`s a negative for bonds.
And also on the trade policies, if we have less global trade, we`ll have to buy more things here within the U.S., and that would tend to raise prices, raise inflation. Inflation is not what you want to see if you`re a bond holder.
So, there`s a lot of nervousness in the bond market, that`s why you see the selling. But there`s not a lot of specifics. So, I do think we`re close to an end to that selling as we await more specifics.
MATHISEN: Which is sort of a code, Brian, I supposed for saying you think it may be a little overdone here. You know, a lot of people have piled into bonds. Are they ready for what higher interest rates might mean to the total return on bonds and to the value of their shares or their bonds themselves?
REHLING: Well, if you look at bonds in a portfolio context, if your bonds have not been doing as well, your equities are probably doing better as of late. So, they`re doing what they`re supposed to do, diversify. Also, if you`re thinking of buying bonds and holding them to maturity, that income stream is still good, will still get you the income that you thought. So, there`s no change there.
But in a total return perspective, bonds alone -- yes, a lot of the policies Trump outlined could increase growth, increase inflation, in general that could be bad for a bond-only holder.
MATHISEN: David, back to you on stocks, we`ve seen already some of the sectors that have bend or are responding positively to the prospect of the Trump presidency. And some that have reacted negatively. Do you think that`s what we`re going to see going forward, certain sectors doing very well? And talk to me a little bit about technology and why it`s not doing so well.
LEBOVITZ: So, I think there are a couple of things going on. First, again, I wouldn`t be surprised to see this rally take a bit of a pause. It has been the more cyclical names, the materials, the industrials, the financials, which have led this rally, whereas utilities, telecom, consumer staples, the more defensive parts of the market have been lagging.
Now, that stands in sharp contrast to what we saw during the first few months of this year when this defensive high dividend, low volatility names were really the name of the game if you will.
So, do I expect the cyclical leadership to continue? I think as long as the information we get on what the actual policies will be is in line with expectations -- yes, I think cyclicals could continue to outperform. And I would add on top of that, from a valuation standpoint, they look far more attractive than the more defensive sectors.
On technology, you know, technology is being pushed down, given concerns about what trade agreements may look like going forward. But what I would say the thing to keep in mind about technology is, if we think back to 2015, when we were in a moderate economic growth environment, a little bit of inflation, tech names performed very well, because they have the ability to grow avenues, they have the ability to grow earnings kind of regardless of what the broader macroeconomic backdrop is.
So, I wouldn`t dismiss the tech names yet. I think that there`s still some opportunity there.
MATHISEN: David, thank you very much for helping us tonight. Brian, thanks to you as well. We appreciate your insight and your time.
LEBOVITZ: Thanks for having me.
REHLING: Thanks.
MATHISEN: All right. What does a Trump administration mean for the Federal Reserve, as we talk about interest rates?
Steve Liesman assesses the landscape.
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STEVE LIESMAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The election of a new president has thrown open questions about the Federal Reserve, ranging from rate policy to personnel. The first hint that Donald Trump could surprise the world by being elected president on Tuesday evening sent the chance of a December rate hike plunging.
It`s stabilized at lower level the next day and has now come back to be around 63 percent. That`s just about where it was when markets thought Hillary Clinton was likely to be elected.
Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker today joined other Fed officials in saying the election officials have not changed his view, but the case for raising rates is relatively strong.
Almost certainly that sense come from a pretty positive stock market reaction to the election. A Dow Jones nosedive could have changed the outlook for a Fed hike. Another area of interest is whether the president- elect will respect the Fed`s independence.
Trump accused the Fed and Fed Chair Janet Yellen of keeping rates low to help his opponent, levying harsh criticism at the Central Bank.
Some Fed officials, they felt the need since the election to emphasize the value of independent Fed.
JOHN WILLIAMS, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SF PRES.: One of the lessons from, you know, 100 years of central banking is that independent central banks tend to perform better, keep inflation low, and that`s something that, you know, most countries, the most successful countries have accepted as the U.S. So, from my perspective, you know, that`s the most important thing, for the Fed to continue to have the ability to make the monetary policy decisions that are best for the long run.
LIESMAN: Trump economic adviser David Malpass said in an interview this morning that the Fed is independent but didn`t quite stop there.
DAVID MALPASS, PRES .ELECT TRUMP ADVISOR: The issue, though, is their performance has not been good. We`ve had a really slow growth economy. And so, the question is, will they look inside and see that they`re part of that problem?
LIESMAN: President Trump will be able to put a large imprint on the Fed in the months and years ahead. Yellen`s term is up in February 2018. And two Fed governorships are vacant now. That means he`ll be able to appoint at least three of the seven members of the board of governors, along with any other governors who might resign.
The unknown question: now that he`s president, does he want higher rates, or like many who held the Oval Office before him, prefer rates as low as possible?
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Steve Liesman.
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MATHISEN: The lobbying of the Trump administration has begun already. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, which represents the major car makers, sent a letter to Trump`s transition team, urging the president- elect to rework fuel economy standards, among other things. Those fuel mandates could cost the industry billions.
Well, the transition has begun, of course. President Obama and President- elect Trump met face-to-face for the first time at the White House today to discuss policy and life at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
John Harwood joins us from Washington.
John, good evening. How did the meeting go?
JOHN HARWOOD, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It went very well. President-elect Trump and President Obama were cordial with one another. They said all the things that the country and the markets wanted to hear about a smooth and peaceful transition. This is just the beginning of it, of course. But they continued the spirit of what Donald Trump expressed on election night, what President Obama expressed yesterday, and I think that`s as much as we can hope for, especially given the fact that Donald Trump is somebody who is taking direct aim at core elements of President Obama`s legacy. If they can work together in that atmosphere, that says something.
MATHISEN: And the transition from George W. Bush to Mr. Obama went presumably pretty doggone well.
There was another meeting today, or a couple of them up on Capitol Hill, really almost equally sort of propitious, I suppose, between the president- elect, the speaker, Mr. Ryan, and the majority leader of the Senate, Mr. McConnell.
What do we know about those meetings?
HARWOOD: Tyler, that`s one of the unique things about this campaign, is that President-elect Trump had a relationship as strained with leaders of his party, both Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, that we`ve seen. They kept their distance. He criticized them, especially Paul Ryan, called him weak and ineffective during the campaign.
But now, they`re going to work together and try to figure out what parts of his agenda and their agenda they can cooperate on. I think Paul Ryan is very hopeful in particular on tax reform, tax cuts, and Donald Trump wants help on immigration. And we will see how they end up.
But they had a smooth meeting today. They had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, which is a Republican gathering spot in Washington, adjacent to the national committee. And again, not a lot of substance emerged but cordiality was the rule.
MATHISEN: How -- quickly, how big a figure will Mr. Pence be in working with Congress?
HARWOOD: I think a very significant one. One of the things about Donald Trump is that he has not served if government before. Mike Pence has, in particular on Capitol Hill, before becoming a governor. And I think he`s going to exploit his ties with House Republicans to try to mend parts of the relationship that at times has been strained.
MATHISEN: All right. John, thanks very much. John Harwood in Washington.
Up next, mouse trapped. Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) missed Wall Street`s target. We`ll tell you what`s dragging down Mickey, Mini and the crew.
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MATHISEN: The Dow component and widely-held stock Disney (NYSE:DIS) missed expectations in its latest quarter. The media company earned $1.10 a share. That was a full six cents below estimates on just over $13 billion in revenue. That was below a year ago, and Wall Street wanted $13.5 billion. Shares initially fell after hours following the news but then reversed course.
Julia Boorstin tells us what is hampering Disney (NYSE:DIS).
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JULIA BOORSTIN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Media giant Disney (NYSE:DIS) reported a rare miss of the analysts` expectations of revenue and earnings. The company attributing the miss in part to an extra week in its prior year, skewing this year`s numbers, with the biggest impact on the company`s cable network business. That division and ESPN in particular were in focus in light of growing concerns about the health of the TV bundle. Cable network revenue`s dropped 7 percent in the quarter and operating income dropped 13 percent in the quarter. Dragging on the division: lower advertising and affiliate revenue and higher programming and production costs due to lower ratings and declining subscribers.
ESPN is certain to be a hot topic for CEO Bob Iger on the company`s earnings call and for Disney (NYSE:DIS) for years to come.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin in Burbank, California.
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MATHISEN: MetLife (NYSE:MET) launches its largest share buyback ever, and that is where we begin tonight`s "Market Focus".
The nation`s largest life insurer said its board has approved a $3 billion share repurchase program. Earlier this year, the company suspended buybacks to focus on spinning off a part of its life insurance unit, a move that could be completed by early next year. Shares today up nearly 5 percent at $53.74.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) said it will sell $5 billion to $8 billion worth of assets and cut its capital budget by 4 percent next year. The energy giant said moves like this will help it to become profitable when Brent oil prices are at $50 a barrel. The company also launched a $3 billion share buyback. Shares were down nevertheless, 2 percent, $44.78.
Shares of Fitbit rallied today following unconfirmed reports the maker of the fitness devices received a takeover offer. According to a regulatory filing, China-based ABM Capital proposed to buy the company for $12.50 a share. But Fitbit denies receiving any communication or a bid from any firm. Fitbit shares nevertheless up 3 percent at $8.86.
A robust back to school shopping season lifted profit and sales of Kohl`s (NYSE:KSS). The department store retailer also reaffirmed its outlook for the year, and increased its share repurchase plan to $2 billion. Shares popped 11.5 percent at $50.97.
So, what does big business think, really think about a Trump administration? It defends on who you asked, I guess.
Today in "New York Times (NYSE:NYT)" Deal Book Conference, some of the nation`s top executives weighed in.
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SCHMIDT: I think we should congratulate the next president of the United States. It`s a significant achievement. Think about, think about most people did not expect this outcome. And it`s a pretty amazing story.
MARK BERTOLINI, AETNA CEO: Of all the possible outcomes that could have happened in the election, this one wasn`t even on the sheet. And every time somebody brings up and said, what if the Republicans sweep? Get out of the room, that`s not even -- so we started with a fresh piece of paper yesterday, we had no idea how to approach it.
LLOYD BLANKFEIN, GOLDMAN SACHS CHAIRMAN & CEO: Of course I imagined that he could win. I did not think it was a high probability. But if you told that he was going to win, I would have told you there would have been a rally in the equity markets.
ROGER GOODELL, NFL COMMISSIONER: Our country has to have more respect for one another. We have to unite. And I saw some very positive signs of that yesterday with our current president, Hillary Clinton`s comments publicly, and others coming together and saying, we have to get together, we have to unite, we have to address some of the issues and work together.
President-elect Trump is our president. So, let`s get behind him.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATHISEN: So, how much money might Donald Trump`s proposed tax plan save you? Find out next.
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MATHISEN: President-elect Trump has proposed one of the biggest tax cuts for the wealthy in recent history, while also giving smaller breaks to the middle class.
Robert Frank breaks down how much money Trump`s plan would put in people`s pockets.
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ROBERT FRANK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Donald Trump`s tax plan would put an average of $2,900 a year back into the pockets of average American taxpayers. The highest earners get the biggest cuts both in dollar and percentage terms. Trump has touted his plan as a way to simplify the tax code and put more spending into the private sector.
So, the biggest change he`s proposing is to cut the seven current tax rates down to three. It would be 12 percent, 25 percent, and 33 percent. Companies get a big cut too -- the corporate tax rate going from 35 to 15 percent. For those who own their own companies or have partnerships, Trump would allow them to use that 15 percent rate for their personal income tax returns.
He would also eliminate the estate tax which currently applies to estates worth more than $10 million. And he would cut the capital gains tax.
So, what does it all mean in dollar terms? Well, if you add in all those tax provisions together, the bottom quintile earns get extra $110 or less than 1 percent of their income. Middle earners get a cut of 2 percent or about a thousand bucks. And the top 1 percent get a cut of 13.5 percent or $214,000 a year. And the top 0.1 percent get a cut of more than 14 percent, giving them an extra $1,066,000 per year.
Trump`s plan is similar to that put forth by House Speaker Paul Ryan, so it has a good chance of becoming law. And all that extra cash totaling trillions a year could go to consumer spending, investing or saving.
If there is a price, the Tax Policy Center saying Trump`s plan would add up to $6 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Robert Frank.
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MATHISEN: And finally, Susan Li looks at taxing your sugar intake.
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SUSAN LI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The pop and fizz of soda might be getting more expensive as more cities considered taxing sugary drinks. The latest, Chicago and its surrounding suburbs in Cook County, a population of 5 million.
The county`s board is proposing a penny an ounce tax on cola, sports drinks, iced tea and energy drinks, and also for the first time, diet sodas. Now, if approved it would be the latest to join six other cities across America that have approved these so-called soda taxes. Four of those cities voting in the levy this week, including in San Francisco.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think it`s one way to decrease consumption of something that in the end costs a lot more than that tax, because, you know, diabetes is really expensive.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don`t think we need to tax things we feel are unhealthy. I think people should have the ability to make those types of choices.
LI: But the soda tax has really worked. One example might be Mexico, which introduced its soda tax nationwide in 2014. In a research study published by medical journal "BMJ", during the first year of its act, purchases of sugary drinks fell 6 percent on average each month and reductions were higher among the lower income household which had to suffer the highest levels of obesity.
Industry group said the cost of the drinks will increase the cost of these drinks by 20 percent. The Cook County Coalition Against Beverage Taxes supports this, saying that "we remain very concerned that a beverage tax will directly affect working families and small businesses. If this tax passes, consumers will pay more and get less freedom."
Meantime, the world`s largest drink makers say soda levies are not about nutrition at all.
INDRA NOOYI, PEPSICO CHAIRMAN & CEO: Soda taxes are there to balance budget. It`s got nothing to do with public health issues. If you look at across every one of the jurisdictions, everybody had a budget problem. And everybody, you see taxes coming in, it`s because of budget issues.