MARIA-00
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: The reports also show that the political leadership with the department of justice is trying as hard as they can to protect their angel, Hillary.
CLINTON: It doesn't matter if you're innocent. If he decides that --
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(Show: MORNINGS WITH MARIA) (Date: November 5, 2016) (Time: 06:00:00) (Tran: 110501cb.231) (Type: Show) (Head: Trump and Clinton Targeting Swing States; Examining the Polls; One NYPD Officer Killed in Line of Duty, Another Engaged in Shootout, Two Christie Aides Convicted in Bridgegate Scandal; The Millennial Vote) (Sect: News; International)
(Byline: Maria Bartiromo, Cheryl Casone, Dagen McDowell)
(Guest: Capri Cafaro, Erin Elmore, Christi Kunzig, Jessica Tarlov, Jason Meister, Kevin Kelly, Samantha Wills )
(Spec: Business; Economy; Donald Trump; Hillary Clinton; Politics; Polls; Elections; Chris Christie; Crime; Bridgegate; Trials; New Jersey; Police; Crime)
MARIA BARTIROMO, FBN ANCHOR: Hey, very good Saturday morning, I'm Maria Bartiromo, thanks for joining us. It is Saturday, November 5, your top stories right now at 6 AM on the East Coast. The final countdown is on, we are live this week and we are now three days away from the election. New FOX News polls show a statistical tie between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. They're both campaigning in Florida today and Trump is also heading North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada, as they fight for every last vote.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: I need you to vote, America needs you to vote, because we have to finish what we started eight years ago.
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I actually think we're leading in the great State of Pennsylvania. I love you people. But they won't show, once you go home, you won't see the crowds. They won't talk about them. You're going to see Hillary, she'll have like 300 to 400 people, what a joke.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BARTIROMO: Plus the celebrity factor, Beyonce and Jay Z performing last night to help turn out vote in Ohio; whether it will eliminate the difference, coming up. We're also looking at how the markets may predict the election this morning, what the recent downturn in stocks means for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Plus a New York police officer killed in the line of duty, another officer injured in the shootout as they responded to a 911 call; the details coming up.
First, it was smartphones, now washing machines; Samsung recalling nearly three million machines over the impact of impact injuries.
Oracle closer to its $9 billion acquisition of NetSuite this morning; the technology giant said that it will be completed Monday after accumulating enough stock.
And here it comes, the world's largest cruise ship arriving in the U.S. today, after crossing the Atlantic.
,Plus it is time to fall back; the clocks change tonight at 2 a.m. Get excited for that extra hour of sleep tonight. All those stories coming up this morning.
And joining me to talk about it; FOX Business Networks Dagen McDowell; Recon Capital Chief Investment Officer, Kevin Kelly; and Pollster Lee Carter.
BARTIROMO: Happy Saturday.
DAGEN MCDOWELL, ANCHOR, FOX BUSINESS NETWORKS: Happy Saturday.
(LAUGHTER)
BARTIROMO: I know. Yesterday, I was like, "Hey it's Friday night, I'm going to go to bed at 7."
(LAUGHTER)
KEVIN KELLY, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, RECON CAPITAL: Like you don't do that every Friday night.
MCDOWELL: Right
(LAUGHTER)
BARTIROMO: We're couple of days away from the election. We've got a lot to talk about, and anything can happen.
KELLY: Yes, anything can happen. You're seeing it tightening up in the polls as well, so you're seeing a lot more states are becoming toss-up states.
BARTIROMO: Yes.
KELLY: And not traditionally too. And so, even yesterday there was big talks about Arizona as well, and it was covered here, so that is pretty interesting.
BARTIROMO: And Pennsylvania as well.
LEE CARTER, POLLSTER: It's fascinating that is tightening up. Pennsylvania hasn't gone Republican since 1988.
BARTIROMO: 1988, wow.
CARTER: So I do think, the Cubs won, this could happen, anything could happen in 2016, right?
(LAUGHTER)
BARTIROMO: Exactly, that is why we are here this morning, live this Saturday morning and we're glad you're with us. We're in striking distance from Election Day. We've got three days to go. Donald Trump is campaigning in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada this morning.
Well, Clinton is focused on Florida specifically. New FOX News polls show that there is a tight race nationally. Take a look at the numbers. Clinton leading Trump by two points in a four-way poll. But in the head- to-head match-up, Clinton is ahead by only one point right now. Trump is touting the recent polls and he is talking about it to supporters. Watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Have you been seeing what is happening with those polls, they're like rocket ships. They're like rocket ships, new polls just out have us with a very substantial lead in Ohio, nationwide, and many of the states.
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Please take this energy out with you. Here in Cuyahoga County everyday is Election Day, we can have the biggest turnout in history.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BARTIROMO: Joining us right now is Ohio State Senator Capri Cafaro along with Trump Surrogate and former Apprentice contestant Erin Elmore. Good to see you both, thank you so much for joining us.
Senator Cafaro, great to see you.
CAPRI CAFARO, OHIO STATE SENATOR: Thank you.
BARTIROMO: This poll result is really well within the margin of error. What is your take right now and how does it feel in Ohio?
CAFARO: Well, I think the polls are right, you know, and I've been saying this all along for months and months, Maria; you and the crew there know this. I mean the mood here in Ohio, while Hillary Clinton certainly does have a robust ground game, at the same time, you know the momentum and the energy is on the side of Donald Trump.
And so I think that, and it has been frankly for months because of his message trade. And you know, I think at this point, you know it's going to be hard for Hillary Clinton to pull it out. We do - we are over- performing, Democrats are over-performing Republicans in early voting. We have early voting here up until tomorrow, but frankly that doesn't really mean anything in my opinion, because you could have Democrats, Union guys pulling a ballot for Donald Trump, and you could have suburban Republican women voting for Hillary Clinton.
BARTIROMO: Yes.
CAFARO: So, saying Democrats are over-performing in early voting is I think misrepresentation. You can't necessarily read into what the early voting, you know, models and statistics are showing.
BARTIROMO: Isn't that interesting, Erin Elmore? I mean, here you have Hillary leading in the polls and yet when you look at where the excitement is, when you look where the early voting is, when you look at just small business and the enthusiasm there for Trump.
ERIN ELMORE, TRUMP SURROGATE AND FORMER APPRENTICE CONTESTANT: I couldn't agree with Capri anymore. Basically, I'm in the State of Pennsylvania and there, there is the same enthusiasm, the same love for Donald Trump, and as you can see from the polls, they are neck and neck in Pennsylvania too.
So the momentum is really shifting towards Donald Trump. I also do think there is a phenomenon sort of called Wilder effect or the Reverse Bradley effect.
CAFARO: The Reverse Bradley effect, yes.
ELMORE: Totally, where people are scared to say they're supporting Donald Trump because the next thing the Democrats are going to do are bully them into submission and call them a racist. They are going to show up on Election Day and they're going to vote for Donald Trump. So, the democrats need to have a little bit of fear.
BARTIROMO: Yes, that's what we've been talking about. A lot of groups who basically are -- they don't want to say who they are voting for, Dagen, and maybe they're not being captured in these polls.
MCDOWELL: Well, our point to the New FOX News poll, when you look at the four way race that includes Johnson and Stein, there are only 4 percent of people who are undecided, which is lower than it has been, and I made - I made Lee make a face just now by saying that.
And if you look at the breakdown of Democrats supporting Clinton and Republicans supporting Trump and it's something that we've been talking about here in the last many weeks, 90 percent of Democrats are for Clinton, 85 percent are for Trump. Trump needs to get those numbers up even further and into the 90 percent range.
BARTIROMO: Wow, I need to know, what did Romney have?
MCDOWELL: Remember, you're talking about north of 90.
BARTIROMO: North of 90.
CARTER: Yes, he did. I do think that right now we're seeing that number is increasing because there are a lot of people who are going to say, I couldn't vote for Donald Trump and then WikiLeaks has come out and they're saying, you know what, I'm not sure that I can let this go to Hillary Clinton, I think we need to make this happen.
So, even though we're seeing the numbers stabilize as a result of that, I do think that these numbers are going to come out higher and we've seen in the primaries that Donald Trump outperforms the polls somewhere between five and six points so that Reverse Bradley effect is real.
KELLY: Yes, I think there is two takeaways from this. One is that I think Trump's base, because they have been villainized so much throughout this campaign being called deplorable, and shame on you for supporting Trump and trying to express your view, I think they're going to come out. I don't think there is any issue in that, so I think that actually helps a lot and lends a lot of credence to him, no matter where the polls are.
But I think the second thing in the takeaways from the FOX News polls is that his numbers are better on the economy. And so, when you saw that happen, that is when his polls started to rise, and right here at the FOX News polls, it says 52 percent Trump, 44 percent Hillary Clinton and that's a big spread on who can do better for the economy.
BARTIROMO: Yes, Capri, at one point, it was all about the economy and jobs and then we moved over to corruption and people wanting the end of corruption. But jobs are still incredibly important in terms of what will drive the vote.
CAFARO: Sure. And I think when you look at some of the places that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton frankly both are going, you know they are trying to bring home their economic message. Hillary Clinton I think is trying to focus on increasing the participation of the African American vote, which is lagging from 2012, which you know is not necessarily surprising because obviously we have the first African American President on the ticket.
Let me just quickly say something about the FOX News poll and looking at the toplines yesterday, you know really when you take a look at it, it shows how divided the nation is. Both of these candidates are equally unpopular, but both of their negatives are sinking. So, you look at the issue of temperament for example, Donald Trump is still lagging in temperament, people are still concerned about nuclear weapons and Donald Trump.
On the flip side people do not trust Hillary Clinton, her untrustworthy numbers are very high and people think that the FBI investigation is something of significant concern, if she become President of the United States. So it's anybody's game.
CARTER: I also think those enthusiasm numbers are something that is really interesting. So, Hillary Clinton enthusiasm hit in the last week has dropped by seven points and that's significant on how you're going to turn out of the polls. At the same time, his has gone up an equal measure and her trustworthy numbers at their peak were 45 percent and right now they're at 31 percent in the latest poll. That is a big difference.
ELMORE: Trump absolutely has the enthusiasm. I attend rallies and you know conferences and on a weekly basis throughout the country and mostly in Pennsylvania for Donald Trump, people there whether it's women, working people, African Americans are enthusiastic of that and he gets the crowd. He always talks about the crowd, they are really there and they are happy and they are enthusiastic, and they are the ones that are going to the polls.
Another thing about the early voting, you know Democrats, that is engrained in their culture to do the early voting. Statistics have shown that the Democrats are the ones that are getting out there and early voting. They are a little up right now, but not really, so I think what's really going to matter is Election Day, the early voting isn't really that significant.
BARTIROMO: I guess with 37 million early votes cast as of Friday, at least one million more Democrats than Republicans have returned ballots in the data released so far according to an analysis by the Wall Street Journal.
CAFARO: But it doesn't matter.
ELMORE: Yes, that is engrained in the Democratic culture.
BARTIROMO: Yes. But if you are - if you say -- but Capri, if you say it doesn't matter, you've got to -- the Trump campaign at this point needs to worry about getting those votes out and literally putting people in the vans, but no question because.
CAFARO: In this walk and tell, that's not happening. I think that the issue - the only issue that I would say and I think that's Dagen, if I can hear correctly.
MCDOWELL: Yes.
CAFARO: I mean I think that the issue here is that, just because Democrats are outperforming does not necessarily mean those Democrats are voting for Democrat for President of the United States.
We're not going to know, and so -- but I mean here is the other interesting thing about this is that well I see no evidence on Donald Trump's you know campaign at least here on the ground in Ohio putting like people in vans and driving them to the Board of Election.
On the flip side of that, apparently without a ground game, he is like a few points up here in Ohio. So, I think this entire Election is really you know anybody's best guess on what is going to happen and all of the models are going to be redone after this.
BARTIROMO: In this Wall Street Journal article, they make a big point that there is little sign that -- based on the early voting that these new white voters who previously did not participate in Presidential elections are turning out in vast numbers.
CAFARO: I believe that's in early voting, I believe that is true.
BARTIROMO: There are a few pockets of positive signs in play like where the Senator is from in Ohio in certain counties, but right now it's not -- these ardent Trump supporters, they might be going to rallies, but they're not getting out to vote.
CAFARO: And they may not trust...
BARTIROMO: And then they will go to College -- one Democratic Elector in Washington state says he will not vote for Hillary according to report, this is Elector Robert Satiacum, he said Clinton will not get his vote even she wins the popular vote. He is native American, does not believe Clinton supports his tribe.
There are 12 Democratic electors in Washington State. Constitutionally, electors do not have to vote for the specific candidate, so what about that. I mean you know you could come up with a plan and an expectation based on the Electoral College, but then again it's not - they don't have to follow through.
ELMORE: Absolutely and he said, he is a native American, and he said she doesn't care about me and Hillary Clinton doesn't care about my land. And I think that is what a lot of people are realizing, Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton only care about Clinton Inc. and we know that and that is what people are seeing.
BARTIROMO: Before we go, Lee your dolls, anything changed, what have you seen in the last couple of days?
CARTER: Well I've seen most recently and this is surprising to me because independents really picked up with Donald Trump. They still are talking with Donald Trump supporters except not as much -- with as much intensity. I think what I'm starting to see with Independents is they're not sure what to make of everything that's going on right now.
BARTIROMO: Fatigue.
CARTER: There is a fatigue, there's email fatigue, attack fatigue and I'm worried about that enthusiasm level with independents.
BARTIROMO: We can talk about this, but that bares out in the FOX News poll in terms of he still has more support among Independents, but it's a smaller, it's a smaller range over Hillary Clinton than in the last FOX News poll.
MCDOWELL: It makes a lot of sense.
BARTIROMO: I will get into the details later.
MCDOWELL: Okay good.
BARTIROMO: Capri, yes go ahead, Capri Cafaro, Ellen -- Erin Elmore rather, pardon, me good to see you ladies. Thank you so much.
CAFARO: Thank you.
BARTIROMO: Stay with us to FOX Business Network for all day special coverage of Election day, that is Tuesday, November 8, and of course our post-Election day coverage next morning right here on Mornings with Maria. We're going to kick it off an hour earlier at 5 AM Eastern Wednesday morning, important conversations, so please join us on Wednesday as well.
Coming up next, right here live, one Police Officer was killed, another injured in a shootout after responding to a 911 call in The Bronx. We've got the developing details this morning.
And then Samsung's efforts to clean out after its exploding phones crisis hitting a snag; the massive recall of its faulty washing machines now. Back in a minute.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Welcome back. Breaking news this morning, gunman killed a police officer and wounded another one in New York City, The Bronx. Cheryl Casone with the details now. Cheryl?
CHERYL CASONE, ANCHOR, FOX BUSINESS NETWORK: Yes Maria. So, the two officers were attacked while responding to a home invasion in The Bronx yesterday. The suspect forced his way into an apartment where his estranged wife was staying. That man later killed in a shootout with police. While campaigning in Ohio, Donald Trump weighed in on the incident.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Two New York City police officers, supposed to be two great people, were shot in The Bronx. The Trump administration will protect those who protect us and we will stop this tremendous surge in crime.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CASONE: Well, authorities say the suspect had been arrested at least 17 times. We should say flags at New York are going to be flying at half staff today to honor the fallen officer.
Well, a race car at tomorrow's NASCAR Sprint Cup at Texas Motor Speedway is going to honor the Dallas Police Department and the five officers who were killed in an ambush attack back in July. And there were 83 BK race car's black blue and white design was inspired by the Dallas police cruisers and will feature the names and badge numbers of the officers killed in that attack. As well as 84 other names of fallen Dallas officers since 1881, that car is going to be driven by Matt DiBenedetto.
Meanwhile, take a look at this car. Reed Sorenson's #55 individual prominent Trump/Pence 2016 paint scheme that includes Trump's paint Make America Great Again slogan.
And finally this Maria, exploding Galaxy Note 7 smartphones aren't the only Samsung products you now need to worry about. The Consumer Product Safety Commission has announced the voluntary recall of 2.8 million Samsung washing machines because of the risk of "impact injuries."
According to the commission, the top of the washing machine could unexpectedly detach when the thing's in use. Samsung has received over 700 complaints of excess vibration or the top completing detaching from the machine. Nine injuries have been reported, Maria, including one broken jaw. Samsung owners and she has got to receive a free annual repair or a rebate to buy a new washer.
BARTIROMO: Wow, first it was the phones and now it's the washing machine. It's getting a lot worse. Thanks Cheryl.
Kevin Kelley with us this morning. And what about this, a recall of the washing machine now, how is Samsung going to get out of this?
KELLY: Yes, what's happening right now is you're seeing their shares come down pretty significantly because of the phone situation, then you started to have some activist investors come in and you think it's devalue play. But now you are starting to see it's pervasive throughout a lot of different product lines. And so I think this could dog them like it has dogged other companies, like Chipotle, how their management didn't adapt well to the crisis that they had in front of them and then it's continued and lingered on and I think this could have -- continue to happen for Samsung.
BARTIROMO: But food is different than electronics. People will like, will have to come back to electronics, if there's been a recall or default, than go back to a restaurant that made a large number of people sick (ph).
KELLY: But the issue on the phone side is it's a commoditized business and they're trying to keep you in the ecosystem, and so when the people leave Samsung and move to an iOS device, may become a part of that, it's harder to get them back. And that's the biggest issue, because this Samsung device was -- several were talking about, is actually the same price level as Apple iPhone and that's what they were attacking, so it wasn't a lower margin devices. This was their higher margin device.
CARTER: I also think that, what's important to look at, whenever we are evaluating crisis, we look at how much is the impact to personal safety. And so Chipotle is a personal safety issue because you get sick. This is a personal safety issue because, there's phones bursting into flames, you saw broken jaw, people are really concerned about this kind of thing, and every time you get on an airplane, they are talking about it; it's a constant reminder.
BARTIROMO: We have to talk about markets later and why we are seeing such a downdraft going into the election. Kevin, I know you have some thoughts on that. Take a short break, still come the election just three days away now, but the markets already be crowning a winner, who Wall Street is predicting to win the White House, coming up next.
And then Cloud technology is growing; Oracle now one step closer to a $9 billion deal to acquire NetSuite; more on that deal, coming up. Back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BARTIROMO: Okay, so can the stock market predict who will win the presidential election? Since 1928, the S&P 500 has fallen eight times before an election, seven of those times the incumbent party lost. This is the ninth straight day that the S&P 500 has fallen. Kevin Kelly, based on market indicator, current democrat in the White House, Donald Trump, has an 86 percent chance of winning the White House. Do you trust this correlation between a falling S&P and the next elected president? How do you see it?
KELLY: How I see this, it's tough to pull any real correlation from this because it happens to do with the business cycle. So when we look at these numbers, I mean 2008, we knew what happened. 2000, that's when dotcom bubble was bursting. So it's really hard to extrapolate numbers from this but I think, what the stock market today is telling you is that they are really worried about what could happen should Hillary Clinton be elected president and what I mean by that is, this e-mail and this FBI situation will not go away. And so, I have a problem when people say, oh, well, the market is worried about Donald Trump and that's why it's going down.
That's not actually it because when Donald Trump was tightening the poll earlier in the year, the market didn't go down. The market was completely fine with it, right? Because we know his policies on tax, trade and that now, they are worried because it's now tightening especially in different states that are now toss-up states, so we may actually have to wait a couple of days till we see who could be president should - a Florida situation.
BARTIROMO: Let me tell something about it. I was talking to somebody yesterday, I want to get your take on this, hear me out. This is a democrat that I was talking to yesterday and he said to me, what happens should Hillary Clinton become president? She can't appoint a new AG; she's not going to change Jim Comey; she can't appoint an FBI. These investigations go on. What happens? Is she just a lame duck unable to put the people that she wants in her cabinet because this investigation is hanging over her?
MCDOWELL: And the congressional focus is on her and the misdeeds, whether its e-mail or the Clinton Foundation.
BARTIROMO: Or a special prosecutor.
MCDOWELL: And not on policy. I think some of the concern and we've bought this up is that the senate goes to the democrats and that gives her, if she won the presidency, a great deal more power and influence to, you know.
KELLY: Supreme court.
MCDOWELL: Supreme court justices. I'll also raise the issue of that S&P report about the 86 percent chance. Jon Hilsenrath, when we talked about it the other day said, this election cycle is so different than anything we have ever seen in history. It's hard to take even historical data and apply to what's going on this year and a lot of, I believe, the market selloff in the last week are the longest losing stretch for the S&P since 1980, down nine days in a row, is just the anticipation that the federal reserve will raise interest rates in December. But maybe, again, moving into the new year, with wages running at the hottest pace since early '09 that we found out yesterday.
BARTIROMO: Do you think it's more broad economic story than the actual Presidential election?
MCDOWELL: It's combo; that's why you have that.
KELLY: I think you brought up the nine days in a row, let's also be careful when we talk about that, because it has been an orderly sell off.
MCDOWELL: Yes.
KELLY: And it hasn't been big in magnitude, so it's actually a sell off that has been really people repositioning due to economic numbers.
BARTIROMO: But, they are nervous about something.
KELLY: The economic numbers haven't been great and they've been extremely volatile, so I think that will actually help lend credence to Trump presidency, but no matter what happens, whoever gets elected, is entering a mature business cycle and the first 100 days of fiscal policies is really going to determine and dictate what happens to this economy.