TONIGHT-00
Heavy Water; How Will Trump Do in California; Putin and the Baltic States;
Transgender Bathroom Laws - Part 1>
McKelway, Guy Benson, Fred Barnes>
Obama; Iran; Nuclear Weapons; Donald Trump>
TOM SULLIVAN, GUEST HOST: Good evening, everybody. I'm Tom Sullivan, sitting in for Lou Dobbs tonight.
Donald Trump is promising to moderate his brash approach and act more presidential.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
PAUL MANAFORT, TRUMP CAMPAIGN CHIEF STRATEGIST: When he's sitting in a room, he's talking business and he's talking politics in a private room, it's a different persona. And when he's out on the stage, when he's talking about the kinds of things he's talking about on the stump, he's projecting an image that's for that purpose.
The part he's been playing is evolving into the part that now you've been expecting, but he wasn't ready for it because he hadn't completed the first stage.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: But brand-new polls out show that his campaign is working just fine the way it is. Get this. Indiana and California will be key to Trump's path, but -- to that magic number of 1,237, and according to the FOX poll just out this last hour, Trump tops Cruz by 8 points in Indiana, 41 to 33. And in California, Trump beats Cruz by 27 points, 49 to 22, John Kasich there at 20.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton feeling more confident about her chances. During a campaign stop in Pennsylvania today, she spent more time attacking Trump's tone than Bernie Sanders.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), FMR. SEC. OF STATE, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know, we've got to change the culture so that it is no longer acceptable for people to say what they say about others. You can disagree with somebody. That's fair game. But to launch personal attacks, to try to intimidate and degrade somebody else is off limits. And we have to be strong about that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: Well, I'll take all that up with The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes -- he'll be along -- and Townhall's Guy Benson, as well.
Also tonight, critics blasting the Obama administration over reports that it will pay Iran nearly $9 million for its nuclear material, this news coming just days after the administration could not say whether Iran was spending some of its $3 billion of newly unfrozen assets on terrorism. They don't know. Meantime, former Pentagon K.T. -- Pentagon official K.T. McFarland will weigh in on that coming up.
Our top story, though, Donald Trump pledging to act more presidential. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: At some point, I'm going to be so presidential that you people will be so bored! And I'll come back as a presidential person, and instead of 10,000 people, I'll have about 150 people, and they'll say, But boy, he really looks presidential.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: Well, part of that shift to a more presidential campaign involves giving more policy speeches, and Donald Trump will deliver a foreign policy address Wednesday to the National Press Club in Washington.
But Ted Cruz argues that Trump is shifting positions to attract the Republican establishment.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He doesn't believe anything he's saying. He's just trying to fool gullible voters and he's not going to do any of it. He's not going to build a wall. He's not going to deport anyone. He is telling us he is lying to us!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: Well, Cruz's attacks have -- they just haven't been working. Five Northeastern states vote on Tuesday, and the RealClearPolitics polling averages show that Donald Trump has a substantial lead in each of those.
And on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders now admitting it will be hard for him to secure the Democratic nomination after his big loss in New York.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Not realistic. It's a hard path, I admit that. But I think, given the fact that we have now won some 17 states, it is a possibility.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: But Hillary Clinton far from a Teflon candidate, an Associated Press review finding that at least 60 -- 6-0 -- 60 companies have paid the former secretary of state to speak, also lobbied the federal government or sought lucrative contracts. That's something that obviously could create a conflict of interest if Clinton makes it to the White House. Clinton is still refusing to release the transcripts of her paid speeches until other candidates do the same.
While President Obama is in London, he's urging Great Britain to stay in the European Union, but the Brits -- they have not been receptive to his pro-European Union stance, criticizing it as an intrusion on British affairs.
FOX News chief White House correspondent Kevin Corke is traveling with the president, has this report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: When the U.S. and the U.K. stand together, we make our countries more secure. We make our people more prosperous. And we make the world safer and better.
KEVIN CORKE, FOX CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was supposed to be a fairly straightforward message meant to encourage the U.K. to remain in the 28-nation European Union, and in the process, elevate the position of his good friend, British prime minister David Cameron. But one remark in particular by President Obama may have unwittingly, if not profoundly, set back the cause.
OBAMA: Our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc of the European Union to get a trade agreement done. And U.K. is going to be in the back in the queue.
CORKE: Back of the queue, as in back of the line if the U.K. exits the European Union. To many U.K. experts, that sounded like a warning.
NILE GARDINER, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: I thought it was an astonishing intervention by President Obama in the internal affairs of the British people.
DAVID CAMERON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I don't have some special power over the president of the United States.
Barack feels strongly about this and has said what he said. And as I said, it's our decision as a sovereign people, the choice we made about Europe.
CORKE: London's mayor, Boris Johnson, not one to shy away from controversy and an outspoken proponent of leaving the EU, mocked the president, writing in The Sun, quote, "The U.S. guards its democracy with more hysterical jealousy than any other country on earth. It is incoherent, it is inconsistent, and yes, it is downright hypocritical."
The row over the so-called Brexit has nearly overshadowed the president's true objective for the trip, to collaborate with U.K. partners on security cooperation and the refugee migration crisis, something the president sees as a threat to the U.S.
OBAMA: We consider it a major national security issue that you have uncontrolled migration into Europe.
CORKE: The two also discussed the fight against ISIS and Russia's support for the renegade Assad regime in Syria, where a fragile ceasefire has begun to crumble.
OBAMA: I have always been skeptical about Mr. Putin's actions and motives inside of Syria. He is, along with Iran, the preeminent backer of a murderous regime.
CORKE: Still, it wasn't all business for the president. Earlier in the day, he and the first lady lunched at Windsor Castle with her majesty, Queen Elizabeth II for her 90th birthday. Later, the first couple spent time with William and Kate, the duke and duchess of Cambridge, and Prince Harry at Kensington Palace.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CORKE: Not pictured during that story but certainly there was another royal. We're talking about 2-year-old Prince George. He's the son of William and Kate. The would-be future king obviously making an appearance, and frankly, if you saw the pictures on the Internet, I mean, people love this little kid, and why not? And for the record, his sister, Charlotte, slept through the entire exchange and so even though George, Tom, was up past his bedtime, it was certainly worth it.
And speaking of the royals, the president, by the way, Tom, made mention of Queen Elizabeth II and his fondness for her. He called her an astonishing person and said that she's a real jewel not only to the U.K. but to the entire world.
And then lastly, I want to pass along this nugget, speaking of royalty. The president also mentioned music royalty. We're talking about Prince, of course, the late music icon. The president said he began his day by listening to an LP of the late singer -- Tom.
SULLIVAN: There you go. Kevin Corke with the president over in London.
Meantime, the State Department today confirming the Obama administration will buy 32 tons of nuclear material from Iran, the move angering critics still reeling after Iran received billions of dollars in sanctions relief thanks to President Obama's nuke deal.
FOX News correspondent Doug McKelway has our report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DOUG MCKELWAY, FOX CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): $8.6 million for nuclear material -- that's what the U.S. is paying Iran. As part of the nuclear deal, Iran is supposed to reduce the amount of heavy water it possesses to under 130 tons during the first few years, and then under 90 tons in later years of this nuke deal.
The Obama administration sees this as a win-win deal because, first, the U.S. produces no heavy water itself. It buys it on the international market. In addition, heavy water has a lot of uses, such as in the manufacture of fiberoptics and semiconductors and nuclear weapons. And that's what has critics so incensed. Among them, House Speaker Paul Ryan, who fired off angry response to the buy.
Quote, "This purchase, part of what appears to be the administration's full-court press to sweeten the deal, will directly subsidize Iran's nuclear program. It's yet another unprecedented concession to the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism."
FRED FLEITZ, CENTER FOR SECURITY POLICY: The administration is trying to say, Well, Iran is just living up to its obligations under the nuclear deal by producing only so much heavy water. But it shouldn't have heavy water. It shouldn't be enriching uranium. The nuclear deal kept Iran's entire infrastructure in place and is allowing Iran to perfect capability to make nuclear fuel that it will be able to use for weapons.
MCKELWAY: When asked today about the payment to Iran for the heavy water, a State Department spokeswoman deflected the answer and then abruptly ended the briefing.
QUESTION: What kind of dollars are being used to purchase this heavy water from Iran?
ELIZABETH TRUDEAU, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESWOMAN: OK, so this was actually facilitated through the Department of Energy, so I'm going to (INAUDIBLE). Thanks, guys.
MCKELWAY (on camera): In the meantime, Iranian foreign minister Zarif in New York today is putting pressure on Secretary of State John Kerry that sanctions relief is not happening fast enough because world bankers are unsure what Iranian assets should be kept frozen. Kerry promised to remind the bankers of the prohibited transactions with Iran that are now legal.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SULLIVAN: All right, Doug McKelway in Washington, thank you.
We're coming right back with much more. Stay with us.
Donald Trump closer than ever to clinching the GOP presidential nomination. But now his top advisers say he's implementing a new strategy.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PAUL MANAFORT, TRUMP CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST: He's looking to work with the RNC and work with the other leaders of the state parties to begin to put together the framework for what will be a united Republican effort in the fall.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: Will Trump's new image help guarantee him the Republican nomination? We'll take it up with FOX News contributor Guy Benson and The Washington Free Beacon's Elizabeth Harrington.
And this daredevil takes his stunts to the top of a Dubai skyscraper. We'll have the video right after these messages.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SULLIVAN: Well, Donald Trump today in Delaware dismissing Ted Cruz, and he's turning his attention to Hillary Clinton.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Lyin' Ted Cruz -- no, good (ph). Doesn't work!
(BOOS)
TRUMP: First of all, she would beat him so badly, he'd lose so many states, he has no chance. Look at what happened to him just this week. He got -- he lost to Kasich! Cruz came in third! I will win New York against Hillary Clinton. I think I'm going to win New York.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
TRUMP: And I'll win Michigan and I'll win Pennsylvania!
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
TRUMP: And of course, we're going to win Delaware, but we know that, right?
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
TRUMP: And I'll win Florida!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: Meantime, Delaware is one of the five key states that will be holding their primary next Tuesday.
Well, joining me now, Townhall.com political editor and FOX News contributor Guy Benson, and staff writer for The Washington Free Beacon Elizabeth Harrington.
And let's take a look -- let's start with these FOX News polls that are out. I mean, you're looking at out in California -- for heaven's sakes! Guy, let's start with you. That is -- and I'm an old Californian. I find that to be pretty amazing. What do you think?
GUY BENSON, FOX CONTRIBUTOR: Well, these are really good poll numbers for Donald Trump coming out tonight from FOX News, both in California, a 27- point lead for Donald Trump, lapping the field, and also crucially in Indiana, where there has been a dearth of public polling. He's up 8 on Ted Cruz in that state.
And the reason why I think the Indiana poll is particularly important tonight is that we saw this week a big win in New York, as expected, for Donald Trump. We're expecting Donald Trump to again sweep and do very well next Tuesday in these Northeastern blue states.
Ted Cruz really needs to stop the bleeding and win Indiana. It's a state where he is -- should be on some level on paper well situated. If he's down 8 points to Donald Trump in Indiana, there is real trouble in the Cruz campaign.
SULLIVAN: Yes. And Elizabeth, I thought that the way it was -- and to Guy's point about the fact there has been a dearth of some polling in Indiana, but it was kind of widely talked about, the fact that that was kind of one that Ted Cruz was expecting to win.
ELIZABETH HARRINGTON, WASHINGTON FREE BEACON: Sure. I think lots of people assumed Indiana -- the demographics are similar to other states that Cruz has won. And lots of people were hoping in the so-called "Never Trump" camp that Cruz would have a victory there and that would prove -- be able to prevent Trump from getting that magic 1,237 number.
But what these polls are showing is that doesn't look to be the case right now. I mean, Trump has a pretty comfortable 8-point lead there. And let's face it, I mean, if he wins Indiana, this race is pretty much over. He may not necessarily get all the way to 1,237, but he'll be close enough, and all those unbound delegates that will be left for the picking for Trump to try to sell on a deal -- he's likely to get some of those and push him over the top.
SULLIVAN: Yes. Guy, do you feel good about this -- the accuracy because of the fact that if you're talking about the next five states on Tuesday, then you throw in Indiana, then you throw California -- we're only about six weeks away from the end of this primary process.
BENSON: Right.
SULLIVAN: I mean, momentum may be something that would be very hard for Ted Cruz to overcome.
BENSON: Yes, and there's been this argument that this is not really a momentum race because Ted Cruz won that crushing victory in Wisconsin, then went on and racked up delegates in a number of states like Colorado and North Dakota and elsewhere earlier this month, and then Donald Trump waltzed into New York and just cleaned up.
I think that if you start to see the cascade of week after week after week, Tuesday,after Tuesday after Tuesday, wins for Trump, especially if he sort of breaks Cruz's back in Indiana, that could be all she wrote, particularly if those numbers out of California are accurate or close to accurate...
SULLIVAN: Yes.
BENSON: ... because we've heard a lot about Cruz's ground game being much stronger than Trump's in California. I'm confident that's true. But ground game can only compensate so much. If you're down 25 points, you're not going to win the lion's share or even any substantial number of delegates there. And Trump could, at these numbers, get to 1,237 before Cleveland.
SULLIVAN: Elizabeth, very quickly, is this the time when -- we're starting to hear buzz about the candidates, both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump starting to talk about their vice presidential running mates, members of their cabinet. Is that a technique that will maybe help them in their campaigns?
HARRINGTON: I mean, I think it will be a little absurd if Cruz or Kasich announce their running mate before the convention, when both of them have mathematically been eliminated to get it on the first ballot. I mean, it could be a tactic to try to shore up delegates for the second ballot, if it comes to a contested convention. But I mean, it would really just be to take attention away from Trump at that point.
SULLIVAN: So too soon. All right. Thank you, Guy Benson, Elizabeth Harrington. Good to see you. Thank you for coming in.
BENSON: Thank you.
SULLIVAN: You bet.
HARRINGTON: You, too.
SULLIVAN: Meantime, breaking news. The tech expert who set up Hillary Clinton's personal e-mail server is still refusing to talk to Congress. Brian Pagliano's attorney told the chairmen of two Senate committees that Pagliano, quote, "respectfully declines" their invitation to testify about his work. Pagliano was recently granted immunity by the FBI in exchange for his cooperation in the Clinton server investigation.
Well, be sure to vote in tonight's poll. Should Cruz and Kasich drop out with no mathematical path to the 1,237 delegates? Cast your vote on Twitter @Loudobbs. And follow Lou on Twitter @Loudobbsnews, like Lou on Facebook, and follow Lou on Instagram at Loudobbstonight, links to everything about our good buddy, Lou, is right at Loudobbs.com.
Well, even if you don't have a fear of heights, this stunt is sure to make your heart stop, make it a little queasy. Without ropes or harnesses or (ph) any kind (ph), this daredevil tumbled, back-flipped, hung on the edge of an incredibly tall skyscraper in Dubai. Let's hope he doesn't spend all of his afternoons like this. That is amazing.
Up next -- Donald Trump's convention manager says that his candidate is evolving for the better.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
PAUL MANAFORT, TRUMP CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST: You'll start to see more depth to the person, the real person. You'll see him in a different way. That's how we deal with negatives that relate to, you know -- you know, the personality.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: And the Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes will weigh in coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SULLIVAN: Well, Donald Trump is not running against the Republican National Committee, according to his campaign chief, Paul Manafort. In an interview here on "Lou Dobbs Tonight" last night, Manafort outlined the road ahead to the convention.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PAUL MANAFORT, TRUMP CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST: We think it's critical for the Republican Party to come together before July. If we are fighting in July, if the convention is fractured in July, then our chances of winning in November will be dramatically impacted.
From our standpoint, we're the only one who can be nominated on the first ballot, and we think that the voters in the Republican Party are indicating where they want to be. You've got 66 percent of Republicans saying that the leader in total votes and delegates should be the nominee. That's already finished. We know who's going to finish first in both of those categories.
And so now is the time to start the healing process with the leadership of the party. Now is the time for the Trump organization, and Mr. Trump has told us this, to begin to reach out to Republican groups, to begin to bring together all of the elements of the campaign structures so that we can merge the presidential campaign with the committee campaigns.
LOU DOBBS, HOST: And those efforts are going to intensify in the days ahead?
MANAFORT: Absolutely.
DOBBS: All right.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: Well, joining me now, executive editor for The Weekly Standard and FOX News contributor Fred Barnes. And Fred, nice to see you.
What do you think of Paul Manafort's comments that this is all going to be put to bed, and if they're arguing in July, it's bad news for November?
FRED BARNES, FOX CONTRIBUTOR: Well, the last part, he's right. If they're arguing in July -- and they'll be arguing to some extent in July anyway, but if it's toned down, that'll be fine.
My question about Paul Manafort -- and he's a very experienced political professional -- is how much influence he has with Donald Trump. This is not like Karl Rove advising President George W. Bush. They'd been together for years and years, and Bush trusts Karl Rove. But I think Trump just gotten to know Paul Manafort. So it's -- there's a real question about how much influence Manafort's going to have and whether he's really going to be able to create, as he says, Trump as a different guy.
SULLIVAN: Yes, well, and that's the other question. Can a zebra change its stripes? That's going to be one to watch.
BARNES: It's going to be -- it's going to be one to watch, and -- but there are a number of ways we can tell whether he's changing or not. One is if he's stopped insulting people. I mean, it does him no good now. He's thrashing Ted Cruz. He doesn't need to go after Cruz or Kasich. And if he stopped pounding the Republican National Committee -- I guess he has -- and says they're running a corrupt primary system with these conventions -- and then there's the best test of all, and that is his unfavorable number. The problem with Trump is, you know, by about 2 to 1, voters look at him unfavorably.
SULLIVAN: Yes, but...
BARNES: That unfavorable number has to start coming down.
SULLIVAN: But will that -- will the Republicans come together? Will there be a kumbaya, regardless of how this turns out?
BARNES: Not really. You know, there are -- there are so many people I know well who claim they're going to never vote for Trump. But Trump may win some of those people back, but he's going to have to do it. You can't wait around for those people to come to him. He's got to go get them.
And most of them are conservatives. He's going to have to appeal to conservatives, and maybe it'll start with this national security speech this coming week.
SULLIVAN: We'll see how good of a salesman he is. But let's go to the Democrat side because...
BARNES: Yes.
SULLIVAN: ... the question there is for Bernie Sanders, is in trouble, and Bernie Sanders seems like he's more than a candidate. He's almost like he's got this group of people that are passionate about this movement.
Where will they go? What will they do if he's not the nominee? Will they go for another outsider, like a Donald Trump?
BARNES: I don't really think so. You know, I think the Democratic Party is going to be unified. They'll fall in behind Hillary, and I think the Hillary people would fall in behind Bernie Sanders, as well.
When you see -- when you see the debates between Sanders and Clinton, they're not that far apart. And so it's a lot easier for the Democrats to unite than it's going to be for the Republicans.
SULLIVAN: All right. I look at those Sanders folks. It's almost like it's a religion. But I'll take your comments (INAUDIBLE) Let's look at California and Indiana. Those polls are just out in the last hour. And in California, Donald Trump is ahead by miles! Are you surprised? Look at that, 49 to 22.
BARNES: Yes, I am a little surprised. I knew Trump would be ahead, but you know, there were earlier polls that showed much closer than that in California. So I mean, California, it's the last day for primaries - when you're ahead by nearly 30 points, that's a gap that will be very difficult for Cruz to overcome.
SULLIVAN: You know, Fred, for a long time, most of my adult life, I lived in California. Their vote has never counted. So they've got to be - there's got to be a lot of excitement .
BARNES: Yes.
SULLIVAN: And stir up the Republicans in California because they haven't had a chance to make a difference in a long time.
BARNES: You know, the last time I remember, it was in 1984, on the Democratic side, that's a long time ago. You know, if Trump wins in California, I think he'll be able to put together enough of the unplugged delegates that he can gather up after that and win on the first ballot.
SULLIVAN: Well, it's going to be, like, a month before the convention, so California's going to be an important one. Fred Barnes, always good to see you. Thank you for coming on tonight.
BARNES: Thanks, Tom.
SULLIVAN: You're welcome. We're coming right back with much more. Stay with us.
President Obama traveling abroad trying to build support to step up the fight against the Islamic State.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: This has always been hard. And it's going to keep being hard.
SULLIVAN: We know it's hard work, Mr. President, but what are you doing about it, or do we have to wait for the next commander in chief? We'll take it up with FOX News National Security Analyst, K.T. McFarland, here next.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: And this whale-watching cruise is about to find itself in the center of a frantic stampede. We'll show you the amazing video when LOU DOBBS TONIGHT continues. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SULLIVAN: That's all part of the new and improved Donald Trump, the GOP frontrunner will make a major foreign policy speech next Wednesday in Washington. It's being hosted by the Center for the National Interest, formerly known as the Nixon Center. The speech, we're told, will cover trade, economic and national security, and here's Trump, hitting those issues in Indiana where he has an eight-point lead over Ted Cruz in that new FOX News poll.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, BUSINESSMAN: You look at what Putin is doing in Russia with nukes. You look at what Putin's doing in Russia with his military. It's modernized. They're building all over, wherever they feel they need, they put. We don't do that, we're getting smaller, smaller, weaker, weaker. We have to build up our military. We have to make it strong.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SULLIVAN: Well, joining me now, former Pentagon official and FOX News National Security Analyst, K.T. McFarland. K.T. is Donald Trump right? Are the Russians investing and we are shrinking?
K.T. MCFARLAND, FORMER PENTAGON OFFICIAL, FOX NEWS NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Absolutely. Not only are they investing in their military, but they're pushing us around, all over the world. They're pushing around in the Middle East; they're pushing us around in eastern Europe. They're doing very provocative military engagements right, you know, within a football field, not even a whole football field, like a first down. Thirty feet from an American destroyer.