NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for January 14, 2016, PBS

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Liesman, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Josh Lipton, Kayla Tausche, Morgan

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ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and Sue Herera.

SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Shake it off. Stocks staged a comeback, but don`t get too comfortable. The biggest issue facing the market hasn`t gone away.

TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: The great rate debate. Why are bond yields moving lower when the Fed is pushing interest rates higher?

HERERA: Big disconnect. Auto stocks stall even as sales soar. Why? And what`s next for the car companies?

All of that and more tonight on the NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for Thursday, January 14th.

MATHISEN: Good evening and welcome. We assume you didn`t win the lottery.

A rare thing happened on Wall Street today. Stocks rallied today. That hasn`t happened much year. Oil prices stabilized. That hasn`t happened much either. JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) issued upbeat results and the optimism got investors buying.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 227 points to 16,379. It had been up more than 300 at one point. The NASDAQ gained 88, the S&P 500 reclaimed the key 1,900 level, rising 31.

Bob Pisani now with more on today`s comeback and why investors shouldn`t breathe easy just yet.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BOB PISANI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The joke on trading this all week is that Wall Street has been selling stocks to play the lottery. Now that it`s over, the markets rallied. That`s a good joke.

But, we rallied today for several good reasons. First, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) had a strong earnings report for the open. Futures did rise after that report came out. Second, oil staged a sharp rally right after stocks opened. And finally and perhaps most importantly, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said this morning the continuing drop in oil had caused a worrisome drop in inflation that may make further rate hikes hard to justify.

Hey, that is a very big statement, because Bullard is a centrist and voter on the FOMC this year. So, is this the bottom? I don`t think so.

First, we`re still dealing with the biggest issue of all -- just how much is the global economy decelerating. Second, oil has not clearly bottomed. And also, it`s not clear the Fed is going to back off the aggressive rate hike policy.

Finally, remember, we haven`t dropped that much. Right now, we`re in the middle a garden-variety correction. That`s right. The S&P 500 is only off 10 percent from its historic high it hit the middle of last year.

But remember, the S&P went from 700 in 2009 to 2,100 in 2015. Now it`s only about 1,900. So, we`re going to rally for seven years and then a garden-variety 10 percent correction? It just doesn`t seem like that`s enough.

That`s why the rally seemed tentative. No one is going all in, because there`s still too much downside risk.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HERERA: As Bob just reported, the global slowdown is perhaps the biggest issue facing the market, but how does an economic project spread from one country to another, and then across the globe?

Dominic Chu breaks it down.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DOMINIC CHU, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Given all of the market turmoil, there`s a lot of conversation, there`s a lot of talk about a possible financial contagion.

So, let`s take you through exactly what a financial contagion would be. Now, it depends on who you ask, but the general concepts are there. First of all, in a financial contagion, you`re talking about the start of it being very localized -- meaning, it`s one geographic area or one particular asset class, one economy, that`s sort of thing.

From there, that ripple effect has spread. All the downsides spread to other parties, neighboring geographies, other different asset classes. That sort of thing, so you get this spread, like a disease.

Also, it leads to widespread financial distress. Now, what we mean there is possibly huge amounts of selling, perhaps forced selling at some point with people trying to raise money, trying to take their risk off the table, trying to lock in some of those cash profits that they have, or avoid losses. Those three general concepts.

Now, we have seen a couple examples in recent memory of this happening. First of all, what happened in Thailand, 1997, the Asian financial crisis. It started off as a currency issue, a devaluation in Thailand. It spread throughout Southeast Asia, hits parts of Europe, led to possibly what happened in Russia with the financial crisis there and it just spread all over and it affected our markets as well.

Also, what happened in the subprime mortgage crisis, 2007-2008, that spread as well. The big concern and why people are talking about it these days is China, will that economic slowdown lead to another possible contagion? That`s the big question.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Dominic Chu.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: Meanwhile, here at home, the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits climbed last week, but they remain at a level consistent with a healthy labor market. Initial claims did rise 7,000 to 284,000, making this the 45th consecutive week below 300,000. That`s the longest such stretch since the earlier 1970s.

HERERA: And the strengthening job market is one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, but instead of going higher, key interest rates have fallen, and that`s creating a disconnect between the Fed and the market.

Steve Liesman takes a look at which side may blink first.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STEVE LIESMAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Markets have been telling the Fed they were wrong about inflation, the economy and hiking rates. And with 1,000-point drop in the Dow, they were practically screaming it. The Fed may finally be hearing it.

St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard became the third Fed official in two days to hint maybe the Fed may be less aggressive in raising interest rates this year. Quote, "I`m starting to wonder if my story is the right one," Bullard said about his forecast that the oil would stop dropping and inflation would pick up this year. Bullard now says the oil decline is substantial and could mean a slower rebound in inflation than forecasted. That could mean fewer rate hikes.

Other Fed officials in recent days have said risks to the U.S. are rising due to weakness in key economies like China. It`s making the market believe that the forecast for rate hikes is looking at best like a long shot.

RUSS KOESTERICH, BLACKROCK GLOBAL CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST: The Fed is reacting to a couple of things: one, the drop in oil, the drop in import prices, putting downward pressure on realized inflation, the drop in inflation expectations that are now back down to the lows we saw in September, and finally, they`re reacting to the volatility we`re seeing overseas, the uncertainty about China -- all of that adds up to my mind of a lower chants of a march hike, and a fewer number of rate rises that they were suggesting at the end of 2015.

LIESMAN: Since the rate hike, markets and the Fed have been out of sync. For example, the ten-year note, a key interest rate for the economy on which mortgages are based, has fallen enough to remove a big part of the Fed`s quarter-point hike. Of course, the reversal in oil prices and stabilizing world economies could put rate hikes back on the table, but for now, in the debate between markets and the Fed, score one for the markets, even though you it would have to scream to make its point.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Steve Liesman.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATTHEWS: Scott Minerd joins us now to talk more about what lies ahead for the U.S. stock market and other markets. He`s chief investment officer with Guggenheim Partners.

Scott, always good to see you. Let`s take today`s little rally off the table for a moment.

So far in 2016, stocks have been sliding, but there has not been a washout. Does the fact that there hasn`t been that level of panic or washout concern you and suggest that we may have farther to fall before a bottom is put in?

SCOTT MINERD, GUGGENHEIM PARTNERS CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER: Tyler, you`re hitting the nail on the head in my mind. You know, we have not seen a spike in volatility, in the volatility index of the S&P. Volatility typically, that index gets into the 30s before we see a bottom. We haven`t cracked 30 at all in this process.

The other thing, too, Tyler, is that bottoms are marked by huge increases in volume. And this has been a light-volume move in terms of just relative to average volume days, most days are just average. So, until I see some level of fear and panic in the market, I just can`t believe that we`re anywhere near a bottom for the time being.

HERERA: Longer term, I know you`re optimistic. But if we`re near a bottom right now, by your measurements and your analysis, how much further do you think this market has to go?

MINERD: Well, Sue, you know, obviously 1,850 around the S&P, which we`re very near to is a key level to hold, if we`re not going to go down. But if that level breaks, then I expect we probably have another at least another 10 to 15 percentage points down before we find some stability in U.S. stocks.

MATHISEN: Would that mean the end of the bull market, or just a correction in it?

MINERD: Well, technically, Tyler, from where we sit today or where we were at the peak, another 10 percent to 15s percent will officially be a bear market.

MATHISEN: Right.

MINERD: But I like to remind people, we had periods like this in the past -- 1987, 1994, 1997, which, you know, was the Asian crisis, and all of those markets were -- the selloffs were completely disconnected from the economy. The economy remains strong throughout, and ultimately people who bought stocks in those selloffs did very, very well. And I think this is a time where contagion and events in China are spilling over into the financial markets, but they`re not affecting the real economy. At the end of the day, the real economy will wind.

HERERA: How much is dependent in a stabilization and a move perhaps higher in the oil markets, Scott?

MINERD: Well, Sue, I think the energy story is getting pretty much played out at this point. I think we still have some downside room. I wouldn`t be surprised to see $25 oil, but the bottom line is that markets are largely pricing for this now.

I think that the real story is China, what`s happening with the RNB, you know the for the last two nights in Hong Kong. Overnight rates have had to increase to levels of 30 to 50 percent to stabilize the currency. Obviously, markets win in the end, and the government`s attempt to maintain the exchange value will have to give way, and I think the turbulence that comes out of that once we get a crack in those markets will give us a sign that maybe that`s the bottom and time to get in.

MATHISEN: We have to leave it there, Scott, but these are lessons that Beijing is learning the hard way.

MINERD: You are, and the markets always win, Tyler.

MATHISEN: Right. Scott Minerd with Guggenheim Partners, thanks again.

HERERA: The global slowdown and the collapse in commodity prices is triggering bankruptcy concerns, not just in the oil industry but across the commodity sector. Most recently, Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI), the second largest coal producer filed for Chapter 11 reorganization.

So, if you`re a shareholder, what are the warning signs that a company might so go into bankruptcy?

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera takes a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHELLE CARUSO-CABRERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The history of Wall Street is littered with the charts of commodity companies like this one that have tremendous rallies, when commodities are smoking hot, and then plummet along with the underlying commodity when things go bad. ArchCoal went from $744 just a few years ago to being virtually worthless.

If you were to do an autopsy, financial autopsy, say, of ArchCoal`s bankruptcy, you would find that there were clues for stock investors that maybe they should have gotten out. The key thing with any commodity company right know is, you want to look not how the stock is trading, but how is there debt trading?

If you look at ArchCoal, they had a note that was due in 2021. It was a ten-year note, a billion dollars worth of the debt at the time they issued and the yield was 7.25 percent, already high, already suggesting risk. But it traded at par for a couple of eight years, then in January of 2014, the price falls to 78 cents on the dollar, yield rising to 11.77 percent. Nine months later, the price of the debt falls to 53 cents on the dollar. Twenty percent yield. Now in bankruptcy, it is worth virtually nothing.

If you talk to bankruptcy attorneys, they say, listen, there`s a big warning sign for commodity companies. If the vast majority is trading somewhere between 50 and 70 cents on the dollar, that is a problem. And here`s why. That suggests the company is distressed. If it goes into bankruptcy, gets restructured, the debt holders get satisfied before the stockholders.

What often which happens is there`s nothing left. What they say to the debt holders is, they say, listen, we can`t pay, so what we`re going to do is we`re going to make a new company, we`re going to give you equity in the new company and guys with the equity in the old company, they`re going to get zero. Debt becomes equity and the equity, the current equity often becomes zero.

If you`re invested in smaller exploration production companies or other kinds of commodity companies, you want to take a look at how the debt is trading.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: And still ahead, driving in reverse. Auto sales are soaring to record levels. So, why are auto stocks going in the opposite direction?

(MUSIC)

HERERA: Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) reporting better than expected earnings after the closing bell, but investors focused on declines in gross margins. The Dow component earned 74 cents per share, beating Wall Street`s 63 cent estimate. Revenue was slightly better and up marginally from a year ago, but gross margins decline, pressuring shares initially in after-hours trading.

In the regular session, shares rose, but its PC business is also a big concern, and as Josh Lipton reports, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has a strategy to overcome it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOSH LIPTON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Research firm IDC reports that pc shipments fell 11 percent in the fourth quarter, the largest year-over-year drop in the industry`s history. The market is under pressure from the popularity of mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets. And that is bad news for Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

DOUGLAS FREEDMAN, STERNE AGEE CRT: They derive two third of their revenue from the PC market, which contributes about half of the company`s profit. Management is tasked with growing bock-line profits, which is a challenge when your PC market is not in growth mode, which it hasn`t been for several years.

LIPTON: But Intel`s CEO Brian Krzanich is well aware of this trend, which is why he`s looking to diversify Intel`s business. In addition to PCs, he`s focused on selling chips for data centers, which handle the workloads of mobile apps. For example, when users open a Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) app on their smartphones, it`s probably Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) providing the processing power that displace all those videos.

Financial analysts like Freedman are betting on continued growth in the datacenter business.

FREEDMAN: We expect that next, it actually could contribute more than half of the company`s profits, as data centers growing, at least double digits, and we`re calling for a 15 to 16 percent growth year

LIPTON: But there are risks for this business, namely whether cloud giants like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) could use their leverage to demand cheaper prices for Intel`s datacenter chips, but Krzanich dismisses that concern.

BRIAN KRZANICH, INTEL CEO: Always take care of the customers and please them as much as you need to, to keep them coming back. Secondly, keep driving technology such that people have to go -- they want to go buy your parts. There`s a need for the performance that you`re going to provide.

LIPTON: And Krzanich is putting his money where his mouth is. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) recently completed a $17 billion acquisition of Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR). That could provide the company can more specialized chips for the data centers of the future and help to offset some of the pressure in the PC market.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Josh Lipton in San Francisco.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: Fellow Dow component JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) topped earnings and revenue expectations, the biggest U.S. bank was held by cost cuts, and lower legal expenses and that help send shares higher today.

Kayla Tausche now with more on what went right for JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM).

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KAYLA TAUSCHE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Expectations for bank earnings may not have been high, but JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) still blew them out of the water. The bank posted record full-year profits and beat fourth quarter estimates handily. The bank, the largest in the U.S. by assets, saw mixed performance across the four business units. Loan growth in consumer and commercial banking did help, lower growth in investment banks and outflows in asset management.

MIKE MAYO, CLSA: The offense wasn`t great, but we`ll take flat revenues in environments like this. But JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) beat expectations on defense, lower expenses, lower assets.

TAUSCHE: It did spend more than $1 billion to cover loans that could go bad. That was a lower amount than analysts expected, but only about a tenth of that total went to cover companies in the oil, gas, metals and mining sector as the price of oil and other commodities keep sinks, it makes the company in that sector less profitable, makes their debts harder to tame.

Analysts asked the bank CEO Jamie Dimon whether a year from now he`d look back and realized they had underestimated that problem.

JAMIE DIMON, JPMORGAN CHASE CEO: We try to be very conservative always, so we`re not trying to put up as little as possible. You know me, I would put up more if I could, but accounting rules dictate what you can do. And these are best -- the real risk is in producing wells, cash flows are down, surprisingly the cost to get the oil out of the ground has also dropped dramatically.

TAUSCHE: That optimism aside, investors have been selling financial shares.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) stocks down 11 percent this year despite rising 2 percent after earnings. But RBC`s Gerard Cassidy said there`s still growth around the corner, especially if the Fed raises rates again. The banks could earn higher yields on their loans while keeping payouts on deposits low. That`s bad news for consumers who want to earn more on the savings, but music to the ears of shareholders.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Kayla Tausche in New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HERERA: Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) lowers its sales outlook, and that is where we begin tonight`s "Market Focus".

The nation`s largest consumer electronics chain says it expects sales to fall about 1.5 percent in the current quarter. This follows weak demand for mobile phones during the holiday season. It sent shares 9 percent lower to $26.43. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reportedly plans to cut up to 10 percent of the sales and fixed income trading jobs. Every year, the firm sheds about 5 percent of the total workforce in March to make room for new hires. Separately, the bank reached a $5 billion settlement with regulators over the sale of mortgage-backed. Shares of Goldman rose 1.5 percent to $161.39.

MATHISEN: Rio Tinto is freezing the salaries of all of its employees, including the CEO as a prolonged slump in commodity prices takes its toll on the company. The world`s second largest miner also warned it sees no end in sight for the rout in commodity prices. Nevertheless, shares of Rio Tinto rallied nearly 6 percent today to $25.20.

Shares of Fiat Chrysler under pressure after two dealerships accused the automaker of inflating sales numbers. The dealers, which are part of the same auto group, filed a civil lawsuits saying that Fiat Chrysler paid dealers to falsify sales figures to, quote, "create the appearance that Fiat Chrysler`s performance is better than in really it actually is," end quote.

For its part, Fiat Chrysler says the allegations are baseless and strongly rejects the accusations. Shares of the company, though, off today 4 percent to $7.53.

HERERA: Auto sales set a record last year with $17.5 million sold. But those strong numbers have not help the carmakers` sagging prices. Over the last month, the last 12 months, shares of GM are down 12 percent, Ford off 19 percent, and Chrysler down 37 percent.

Colin Langan joins us to discuss the disconnect between auto sales and auto stocks. He`s an auto analyst at UBS.

Colin, welcome. Nice to have you here.

COLIN LANGAN, UBS AUTO ANALYST: Thanks for having me on.

HERERA: Why is there that disconnect?

LANGAN: I mean, I think what you`re looking at that people as sales have increased, people are starting to worry about peak U.S. are, and that`s concern for the cycle.

I think my opinion, I think we still have room to grow. I think valuations here are very compelling for both GM and Ford.

MATHISEN: But GM stock has been pretty much stuck in neutral since it came back on to the market four, five years ago, right, ? I take your point that people are maybe concerned that sales in the U.S. are peaking, but the stock really didn`t run up at all even as stocks were rising.

LANGAN: Yes.

MATHISEN: Sales are rising.

LANGAN: Well, I think you have to realize these are global companies, so coming out of IPO, things looked pretty good, but you have Europe collapse, you have South America collapse, you had Asia, China collapse, and so they really had a lot of hurdles because it`s a ver high fixed-cost business.

I think if you look at where they are today, they have massively restructured the business, taken some pretty aggressive actions. So, one of the tailwinds going forward is actually the profits -- losses in those regions are going to turn towards profit. So, that`s actual by one of the lifts over the next few years, in addition to continued improvements in the U.S. They`ve done the math of restructuring there and we`re seeing the benefits of that today.

HERERA: You also think there`s a tailwind from the downfallen commodity prices, because they are net consumers of commodities.

LANGAN: Yes, absolutely. I think that`s one of the biggest things investors are missing about these stocks, is this is going to be a huge margin lift. We`re talking hundreds of millions of dollars. We estimate it`s almost $500 per car in the decline in raw material costs. So, this is a huge support for these things, and really should drive some upside to earnings going forward that people aren`t expecting and to get valuations back to where they should be.

MATHISEN: So, you like Ford and GM, you don`t cover Fiat Chrysler, but you really like a couple auto suppliers, Borg-Warner and Johnson?

LANGAN: Yes, we have buy ratings on both those names. I think there`s definitely good opportunities among the supply safe, particularly after the correction we have seen over the last week or so.

HERERA: All right. Colin, we`ll leave it there. Thanks for joining us. Colin Langan with UBS.

Coming up, from juice bars to spin classes, a look at the big money behind the business of getting fit.

(MUSIC)

HERERA: We are two weeks into the New Year. Have you kept your resolution? Many of us focus on health, vowing to eat right and work out. And as Morgan Brennan tells us, there`s a lot of money behind the pursuit of healthy living.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MORGAN BRENNAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Something music, mood lighting, celebrity trainers. And an average price tag of $30 per class.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Here we go.

BRENNAN: Boutique fitness, a new way to work out, cities across the U.S., business is booming. The international health and sports club association says growth in health card memberships has been outpacing growth in the U.S. population, driven largely by boutique studios. Forty-two percent of all members use these facilities in 2014, up dramatically from just 22 percent the year before.

Best known perhaps is Soul Cycle, the indoor cycling company with a cults following and plans to go public this year. But it isn`t alone. Competitor flywheel has nearly three dozen studios, where there`s choreographed spin workouts and compete on performance.

EDWARD KINNALY, FLYWHEEL SPORTS CEO: There`s a premium on great experience on a short amount of time, an immersive workout experience, with highly trained instructors and great music.

BRENNAN: Barry`s Bootcamp which combines running and circuit training claims 21 outposts. Armed with Wall Street funding, it also has aggressive expansion plans.

JOEY GONZALEZ, BARRY`S BOOTCAMP CEO: We have a pretty exciting trajectory ahead of us. I know that we want to get to at least 50 stores over the next five years.

BRENNAN: The studio model price points are 50 to 100 percent higher than the industry average. As fitness flourishes, it`s even inspired a fashion trend called ath-leisure, stretched yoga pants and $100 hoodies that can be worn to break a sweat or socialize with friends.

While 2015 was a rocky year for apparel, analysts say this segment outperformed.

MATT POWELL, MPD GROUP SPORTS INDUSTRIAL ANALYST: Active apparel business was up in the midteens and active footwear business was up in the mid single digits.

BRENNAN: Bandier touts more than 40 fitness brands and a celebrity following. Since launching in 2014, the fashion start-up has opened five brick-and-mortar locations, including this brand-new three-story Fifth Avenue flagship which even has a studio from well-known instructors will teach classes.

It`s also held fuel a culinary craze. While food sales were flat in 2014, Nielsen says foods labeled with health attributes like gluten free, organic, and GMO-free jumped 13 percent, meaning getting in shape may increasingly mean getting financial fit.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Morgan Brennan in New York City.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: And finally tonight, three winning tickets hit the $1.5 billion Powerball jackpot last night. The tickets were sold in Melbourne Beach, Florida, Mumford, Tennessee, and a 7-Eleven in Chino Hills, California, where the clerk became a celebrity, there he is, when people showed up to celebrate the lucky sales.

As for the winners, no one has come forward yet. I think the first number was 8, so that is on none of mine. So, I could throw that right away.

HERERA: I did. And then I went to bed.

MATHISEN: Yes.

HERERA: That does it for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Sue Herera. Thanks for joining us.

MATHISEN: And I`m Tyler Mathisen. Thanks from me as well. Have a great evening, everybody. And we`ll see you here tomorrow night.

END

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