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Conference Board: Job Growth To Remain Flat

Based on The Conference Board Employment Trends Index that has remained flat for the past three months, economists do not expect ‘significant’ job growth over the next year.

NEW YORK -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) remained at the same level in July as the revised figures for May and June. The index stands at 88.3 and is down 20.1 percent from a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index has been flat in the last three months,” said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “This suggests that we are getting closer to the point when employers are no longer cutting their workforce. However, since we are expecting a weak economic recovery, and given the record number of involuntary part-time workers -- many of whom are likely to move to full-time positions before new employees are hired -- we do not expect significant job growth over the next year.”

This month, the components of the Employment Trends Index showed a mixed picture. The improving indicators were Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Industrial Production, Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

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