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MAPI Forecast: Deceleration On The Horizon

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 2:17pm

Manufacturing Production Expected to Increase 4.5 Percent in 2012 and 2.3 Percent in 2013; Projections for 2.0 Percent GDP Growth in 2012 and 1.7 Percent Growth in 2013

Wednesday, September 5, 2012; Arlington, VA. Deceleration in the U.S. manufacturing recovery in the second quarter of 2012 is a harbinger that slow economic growth looms, according to a new report.

The Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) Quarterly Economic Forecast predicts that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 2.0 percent in 2012 and by 1.7 percent in 2013, down from the 2.2 percent anticipated for each year in MAPI’s May report.

“The annual growth rate will decelerate as the pace of business equipment spending slows,” noted Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., MAPI Chief Economist. “While there is pent-up demand for replacing worn equipment, productivity-improving investment, and capacity expansion, it is the uncertainty about the ‘fiscal cliff,’ declining business activity in Europe, and worries about a hard landing in China that are holding back longer-term commitments.”

Manufacturing production is expected to show growth of 4.5 percent in 2012 and 2.3 percent in 2013. The 2012 figure is down from 5.2 percent and the 2013 estimate is down from 3.3 percent from the May forecast. Manufacturing is expected to see a net increase in hiring, with the sector forecast to add 208,000 jobs in 2012 and 231,000 jobs in 2013. These figures are well below the May forecast of 312,000 jobs in 2012 and 361,000 jobs in 2013.

Manufacturing exceeded GDP growth in the first quarter of 2012, increasing at a healthy 10.0 percent annual rate compared to 1.0 percent for GDP, with the unseasonably mild winter and inventory rebuilding explaining some of the surge, according to Meckstroth. In the second quarter, manufacturing production grew at only a 1.0 percent rate compared to 1.7 percent for GDP.

“We forecast that the pace of manufacturing growth will simply match the slow growth rate in the overall economy during the next three quarters,” Meckstroth said. “However, a faster growth rate in business equipment spending starting in the spring of 2013 should eventually propel manufacturing growth above the rate of expansion in the general economy.”

Production in non-high-tech industries is expected to increase by 4.7 percent in 2012 and by 2.4 percent in 2013. High-tech manufacturing production, which accounts for approximately 10 percent of all manufacturing, is anticipated to grow at a 4.9 percent rate in 2012 and 5.8 percent in 2013.

The forecast for inflation-adjusted investment in equipment and software is for growth of 8.0 percent in 2012 and 7.1 percent in 2013. Capital equipment spending in high-tech sectors will also rise. Inflation-adjusted expenditures for information processing equipment are anticipated to increase by 5.6 percent in 2012 and by 8.5 percent in 2013.

MAPI expects industrial equipment expenditures to advance by 8.9 percent in 2012 and by 10.1 percent in 2013. The outlook for spending on transportation equipment is for growth of 18.3 percent in 2012 and 6.6 percent in 2013. Spending on nonresidential structures will improve by 9.8 percent in 2012 before decelerating to 3.6 percent in 2013.

Inflation-adjusted exports are anticipated to improve by 3.8 percent in 2012 and by 3.7 percent in 2013. Imports are expected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2012 and by 4.1 percent in 2013. MAPI forecasts overall unemployment to average 8.2 percent in 2012 and 8.1 percent in 2013.

The price per barrel of imported crude oil is expected to average $99.60 per barrel in 2012 and $92.50 in 2013.

MAPI Economic Forecast

GDP Expenditure Categories

Inflation-Adjusted Percent Change

2012(F)

2013(F)

2014(F)

Gross Domestic Product

2.0

1.7

2.7

Total Consumption

1.8

2.1

2.5

  Durables

6.0

4.6

4.7

  Nondurables

1.2

1.7

1.9

  Services

1.4

1.8

2.4

Nonresidential Fixed Investment

8.5

6.1

7.8

  Equipment & Software

8.0

7.1

7.6

    Information Processing Equipment

5.6

8.5

9.3

    Industrial Equipment

8.9

10.1

6.1

    Transportation Equipment

18.3

6.6

3.3

  Structures

9.8

3.6

8.1

Residential Fixed Investment

11.5

10.9

19.2

Exports

3.8

3.7

5.3

Imports

3.7

4.1

5.2

Federal Government

-2.8

-3.1

-3.0

State & Local Government

-1.7

-0.9

0.0

F=Forecast

Source(s): MAPI, August 2012

 

MAPI Economic Forecast

Economic Indicators

Percent Change or Level as Specified

 

2012(F)

2013(F)

2014(F)

 

Prices (% change)

 

 

 

Consumer Prices

2.0

1.6

1.9

  Excl. Food & Energy

2.2

1.9

2.0

Producer Prices, Finished Goods

1.6

1.4

0.9

Energy ($)

 

 

 

Imported Crude Oil ($ per barrel)

$99.6

$92.5

$93.5

Natural Gas Wellhead Price ($mmbtu)

$2.5

$3.6

$4.3

Other Key Measures

 

 

 

Nonfarm Inventory Change (Billion 2005$)

$59

$51

$48

Light Vehicle Sales (Million units)

14.1

14.8

15.5

Housing Starts (Million units)

0.759

0.928

1.227

Federal Surplus (NIPA, Billion $)

-$1,054

-$801

-$758

Current Account Balance (Billion $)

-$514

-$460

-$532

Labor

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate (%)

8.2

8.1

7.8

Payroll Employment (% change)

1.4

1.3

1.6

Production (% change)

 

 

 

Manufacturing (SIC Basis)

4.5

2.3

3.3

   Computers & Electronic Products

4.9

5.8

10.1

   Non-High-Tech Manufacturing

4.7

2.4

3.5

     

F=Forecast

Source(s): MAPI, August 2012


The Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI), founded in 1933, contributes to the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing by providing economic research, professional development, and an independent, expert source of manufacturing information. www.mapi.net

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