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Consumer Confidence Declined In June
Tue, 06/26/2012 - 10:08am
Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Retail Writer

Updated: Tuesday, June 26, 2012 at 9:50am CST

NEW YORK (AP) — Americans can't seem to shake their uneasy feeling about the economy.

Consumer confidence fell in June for the fourth straight month in the row as lingering worries about the economy outweighed relief at the gas pump.

The Conference Board says Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index is now at 62, down from 64.4 in May and the 63.2 analysts were expecting. The index remains well below the 90 reading that indicates a healthy economy — a level it hasn't been near since the recession began in December 2007. But it's far from the all-time low of 25.3 reached in February 2009.

The indicator is widely watched because consumer spending, including major items like health care, accounts for 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. Americans are still worried about slow hiring, their home values, the stock market and a worsening European economy that some fear will hurt the U.S.

"Consumers were somewhat more positive about current conditions, but slightly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook," said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board in a statement. "If this trend continues, spending may be restrained in the short-term."

Worries about job and income growth was a big concern in the survey, which is based on a poll conducted from June 1 through June 14 with about 500 randomly selected people nationwide.

Those stating jobs are "hard to get" increased to 41.5 percent from 40.9 percent. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined to 14.1 percent from 15.4 percent. Meanwhile, the proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 14.8 percent from 15.7 percent.

Consumers' dwindling confidence in job growth reflect that after solid gains during the first three months of the year, there's been a sharp slowdown in hiring in April and May. Meanwhile, a measure of the number of people applying for unemployment benefits over the past month has reached a six month high, the government said last week. That increase suggests that layoffs are rising and June could be another lackluster month for hiring. The government is slated to release June data next week.

Still, Americans have some reasons to be optimistic. A widely watched home price index, released Tuesday, offered some hope for the housing market. Home prices rose in nearly all major U.S. cities in April, according to The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index. That's the second straight month that prices have risen in a majority of U.S. cities.

Shoppers are also getting some relief at the gas pump. Gas prices have falling from their peak in early April. Gasoline prices fell 4 cents over the weekend to a national average of $3.41 per gallon, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and the Oil Price Information Service. And experts say gas could fall another 11 cents by July 4, next week

Despite the positive signs, Americans appear to be hoarding cash, economists say. Several companies, from restaurants to home goods sellers, have said customers are pulling back unless they are lured in by big discounts.

Bed Bath and Beyond last week forecast lower second-quarter earnings than analysts expected and said it needed to use more coupons to get people to spend. At furniture chain Ethan Allen Inc., executives said customer traffic is slowing and shoppers are taking more time to make purchasing decisions. And Darden Restaurants Inc., which operates Olive Garden and Red Lobster restaurants, expects earnings short of Wall Street expectations, and it said customers were turned off by the $1 increase for Red Lobster's dish "Festival of Shrimp."


NEW YORK (AP) — Economists are forecasting that a key measure of consumer confidence fell in June for the fourth straight month as escalating job worries overshadowed a drop in gasoline prices.

They expect the private research group The Conference Board to report that its monthly consumer confidence index fell to 63.2 in June from 64.9 in May, according to FactSet.

The indicator is widely watched because consumer spending, including major items like health care, accounts for 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

The Conference Board is to release its report at 10 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday.

"Job market concerns will always trump swings in energy prices," said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wells Fargo Economics.

Despite several brief spikes, the index remains well below the 90 reading that indicates a healthy economy — a level it hasn't touched since the recession began in December 2007. But it's far from the level of 40 reached last October and the all-time low of 25.3 reached in February 2009.

Since the beginning of the year, confidence has zigzagged. It fell in January, rose in February, showed tiny declines in March and April but fell sharply again in May. Earlier this year, shoppers shrugged off rising gas prices because the job market was looking better. But a sharp slowdown in hiring in April and May — after solid gains the first three months of the year — raised concerns about the strength of the job recovery.

The Conference Board's report is based on a survey conducted June 1 to June 14 with about 500 randomly selected people nationwide.

Gasoline prices fell 4 cents over the weekend to a national average of $3.41 per gallon, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and the Oil Price Information Service. That's 52 cents cheaper than the first week of April, when the national average hit $3.94. Experts say gas could fall another 11 cents by July 4, next week.

Shoppers so far appear to be saving the extra cash, instead of spending it on other items, economists say. And several companies, from restaurants to home goods sellers, have said customers are pulling back or need more promotions to spend.

Bed Bath and Beyond last week forecast lower second-quarter earnings than analysts expected and said it needed to use more coupons to get people to spend. At furniture chain Ethan Allen Inc., executives said customer traffic is slowing and shoppers are taking more time to make purchasing decisions. Darden Restaurants Inc., which operates Olive Garden and Red Lobster restaurants, also expects earnings short of Wall Street expectations, and it said customers were turned off by the $1 increase for Red Lobster's dish "Festival of Shrimp."

Brian Sozzi, chief equities analyst at NBG Productions, an independent research firm, says he's concerned about the recent comments from executives about slower spending and increased promotional activity.

"All the headlines are starting to weigh on the consumer," he said. "Everything seems to be building."

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