GENEVA (AP) — New compromise drafts for a global commerce pact will underscore the bitter divide between rich and poor nations at the World Trade Organization rather than provide a breakthrough for talks deadlocked after seven years, officials said Wednesday.
Senior trade officials said they expect the drafts to steer clear of new proposals for sensitive cuts in European taxes on farm imports, U.S. trade-distorting handouts to American farmers or manufacturing tariffs in major developing nations such as China, India and Brazil.
Those issues have been at the heart of a stalemate in the WTO's long-struggling Doha round of trade talks, which was launched in 2001 with the goal of adding billions of dollars to the global economy and lifting millions of people worldwide out of poverty.
For consumers around the world, a successful trade agreement could mean cheaper prices for groceries and manufactured goods. For the global business community, a deal could provide a safeguard for continued trade expansion amid signs of a global economic slowdown.
The trade body's chief agricultural and industrial mediators are planning to release their new proposals later this week. They issued first drafts in July, after a series of high-level efforts led by the United States, the 27-nation EU, Brazil and India failed.
Since then, officials have repeatedly ducked the question of whether they were making progress by saying this week's proposals would finally ''narrow the numbers'' separating the WTO's 151 members from a grand compromise.
WTO officials from Western, Latin American and Asian countries said there would likely be no changes to a proposed limit on U.S. farm subsidies of US$13 billion to US$16.4 billion (euro8.8 billion to euro11.2 billion), which the Bush administration accepted last year. Poorer nations say the U.S. subsidies are a roadblock to their own economic development.
The proposed limit would have been exceeded in many recent years. U.S. trade-distorting payments to crop growers amounted to only US$11.6 billion last year, but the U.S. administration insists on flexibility in case record-high commodity prices fall and greater assistance to American farmers becomes necessary.
Washington, meanwhile, is pressing Brussels to allow more American beef, dairy and poultry to enter the EU. In exchange for the farm concessions they are being urged to make, the U.S. and the 27-nation EU are demanding greater access to industrial markets in the world's emerging economies.
Trade officials expect no changes in proposed tariff cuts of 66 percent to 73 percent for the EU's most protected farm products, or a maximum manufacturing tariff of 19 percent to 23 percent for advanced developing countries. While Europe was largely pleased with the compromise, many developing countries have steadfastly refused to accept the ranges.
''I don't think anybody knows for sure what the papers will contain, but we're still in a deadlock,'' said Ambassador Oscar Carvallo of Venezuela. ''If there are no changes, then we are in deep trouble. Then we'd basically be in the same situation as July, when the majority of members found these numbers unacceptable.''
Part of the reason the Doha round has sparked such fierce and prolonged debates is that the final treaty must be agreed on by consensus and will be legally binding on all countries. Those failing to live up to their commitments could be hauled before the WTO's dispute body, where billions of dollars in sanctions can be awarded.
Countless ''last chances'' already have been missed, and the Brazilian and EU trade chiefs recently indicated that a ''decent burial'' might be appropriate if nations fail to complete at least the basis of a deal in the coming months.
