In an effort to jump-start the Doha global trade negotiations, President George W. Bush is expected to discuss agriculture and textile issues with European leaders at the European Union - United States summit in Vienna. However, according to Professor of International Business at the University of Maryland, Dr. Peter Morici, little progress will be made in addressing problems that are fundamental to America's large and growing trade deficit.
Multiple studies have recently offered similar conclusions relating to the Doha trade talks. According to a recent study conducted by the World Bank, even a successful round would only increase real income in the U.S. in 2015 by an anemic 0.1%, and could actually have a cumulative negative economic impact on American farmers.
Additionally, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace recently released its report which examined nine different scenarios for outcomes of the Doha Round. Even under the best possible circumstances, the U.S. would only see a minimal decrease in its trade deficit.
Morici examined the Doha Round negotiations in the context of the U.S. trade deficit, which reached a record level of $724 billion in 2005. The report warns that the trade deficit imposes a tremendous drag on the U.S. economy, and that this current round of negotiations does little to address this important problem.
A "successful" Doha Round would actually hurt farmers growing some of America's most important export crops. The report shows that if the current Doha proposals had been in effect in 2005, exports of soybean and soybean meal, the U.S.'s largest agricultural export, would have cost our nation's soybean farmers $207 million. Cotton exports would also have suffered, driving down export revenues and costing the American cotton industry $127 million. The report also finds that exports of U.S. manufactured products would see only marginal benefits from tariff reductions by developing countries.
