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U.S. Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected
By Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
Manufacturing.Net - November 12, 2009

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WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fewer people are claiming unemployment benefits -- but still too many to signal that the economy is close to gaining jobs.

First-time claims for jobless benefits dropped last week to a seasonally adjusted 502,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the fewest claims since the week ending Jan. 3, and below economists' estimates.

Claims would have to fall to the high 400s to indicate the economy could soon produce even a slight gain in jobs, estimates Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. That level of claims could be reached by January, he said, and the economy should start gaining jobs sometime in the first quarter of 2010.

Still, Reinhart doesn't expect the gains to be strong enough to push down the unemployment rate -- now at a 26-year high of 10.2 percent -- until the second quarter.

Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities, said he thinks jobless claims would need to drop to about 425,000 before jobs would be added. Pandl expects the economy to produce a net gain in jobs by January.

President Barack Obama said Thursday he'll host a White House summit next month on combating the joblessness that continues to drag on a struggling economy.

Many private economists and Federal Reserve officials worry the nation could be in for a "jobless recovery" as the unemployment rate rises despite some overall economic growth. Companies would start hiring -- but not enough to absorb new people seeking jobs.

For now, Pandl said the weekly jobless claims figures are "showing steady progress."

"Firing activity is starting to taper off," he said.

The four-week average of unemployment claims, which smooths fluctuations, dropped to 519,750, also the lowest in almost a year. It has fallen by more than 20 percent since its peak in the spring.

Economists closely watch initial claims as a gauge of the pace of layoffs. But claims also can provide a signal about the willingness of companies to hire, because laid-off workers able to find jobs are less likely to request benefits.

The last time the economy saw job gains was in December 2007, when employers added 120,000 jobs. Claims that month averaged about 340,000, though Reinhart said claims don't have to fall that far at the end of the recession to signal gains.

Many analysts estimate that job gains need to top 125,000 to account for population growth and lower the unemployment rate.

"We are open to any demonstrably good idea to supplement the steps we've already taken to put America back to work," Obama said before taking off for a trip to Asia. With millions of unemployed Americans, Obama said the government has "an obligation to consider every additional responsible step we can" to get people back to work.

The December jobs "forum" will bring in public and private sector experts to talk about how to get the job-creation engine running again, Obama said.

The stock market dipped in afternoon trading. The Dow Jones industrial average fell about 65 points, while broader indexes also edged down.

Employers cut a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, the government said last month, bringing total losses in the recession to 7.3 million.

Several regional Fed bank presidents warned in speeches Tuesday that the unemployment rate is likely to remain high for several years.

The economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter after a record four straight quarterly drops. The disparity between the unemployment rate and economic growth figure has raised fears among many economists that the nation's economy could be in for a "jobless recovery."

The government also said Thursday that the number of people continuing to claim benefits dropped by 139,000 to 5.6 million, below analysts' estimates. The figures on continuing claims lag initial claims by a week.

But millions of unemployed Americans have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government. Congress added 14 to 20 weeks to the extended program last week, the fourth extension since the recession began and the longest total extension on record.

About 4.1 million people were receiving extended jobless benefits in the week ended Oct. 24, little changed from the previous week.


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What ... Economists and Analysts?   11/12/2009 12:47:00 PM
WTF are these so called Economists and Analysts and why are they always wrong about what happens?
Jobless claims and Economists  11/12/2009 1:45:00 PM
I'm getting tired of these reports. The economists change their story every week and the White House spits out propaganda at every turn. There is no "Evidence the job market is slowly healing as the economy recovers." There are 2-4 million homes heading into foreclosure. Retailers may be hiring temporarily for seasonal reasons however the season will most likely be uneventful or terrible. Commercial real estate has $1.4 Trillion in loans that come due in 2012. Can you say default? Business owners who've been supporting the average Joe through the economy are everyday taking a hit on their bank accounts while their employees have no clue as to the severity of the under current. Evidence is the jump to traditional mortgage loan failure up to 28% from the teens just a year ago. Let's not even discuss the Cash for Clunkers fiasco, the Stimulous's lack of job creation or the $8000 real estate credit. (save or create makes my blood boil) None of which are creating $100,000+ year jobs. Jobs that are being accepted are at 40% less annual pay than what was being paid in the past. One day you're making $80K now you're making $36K. Maybe we should change how we calculate employment. There's more carnage on the way if you connect the dots. Add card check and Obamination Healthcare and the Asian Tsuami of 2004 will look like a walk in the park. Recommendations: Before Healthcare, try allowing insurance companies to sell cross state lines. Instead of a stimulus plan drop taxes and let individuals keep more of their own money. (It's costing us hundreds of thousands of dollars to create one job.) Put in place incentives for job creation and investment in R&D. Let businesses fail that need to fail. Let unions fight their own battles. (I'm a member of the UAW...a waste of my money.) I can't wait until 2010 elections!
Fundamentals of economy are poor  11/12/2009 2:55:00 PM
Since the 1980's when the top U.S. research center Bell Lab disintegrated, Japan captured the transistor market, and Junk Bonds swamped the markets, America has been at a steady decline. Manufacturing not competitive led to trade deficits, and no amount of featherbedding in Wall Street changes that. It only disguised it. Now the Wall Street Fluff turned to Puff, as it must sooner or later, America no longer has the technological engine to create jobs against overseas competition. Even if we start right now to re-invest in our technology, it will be years before we can pull out ahead again. We need a full court press to improve our technology.
The ecomony isn't gaining jobs...  11/12/2009 3:04:00 PM
And it isn't too close to call - it isn't a question - it is a fact - the economy IS NOT gaining jobs - period.
What these numbers are telling us is?  11/12/2009 3:24:00 PM
Only that we are running out of jobs to cut.
What are you smoking?  11/12/2009 3:34:00 PM
Japan and Junk bonds are not the problem. And neither were ever more than a transient problem. We continue to be the technical force in the world - that's the way Americans are wired. But start-ups need monitary incentive - not high taxes and stifling government regulation, et cetera. The housing bubble that made our economy fall on its knees is a outcome of the Urban Reinvestment Act passed by Democrats and signed by Carter. In the Clinton Administration, the Democrats (Barney Frank and Dodd) weakened controls on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae so that more people could buy houses that they couldn't affort. To prolong the inevitable, the same suspects allowed Wall Street and the mortgage brokers to profit - so as to keep the money pumping into their pet socialist housing program. If we don't get rid of these corrupt Democrat in the 2010 elections, this country will be irreparably damaged. The biggest damage to our economy over the last 100 years has been the repeated passage of unaffordable and unconstitutional social program by Democrats (Social Security, Medicade, Medicare, nationalizing of the railroads, nationalizing the banks, nationalizing education, et cetera, et cetera).
Smoking is right  11/12/2009 6:07:00 PM
Urban reinvestment Act has been around a long time and was never a problem. It gives first time low income home buyers loans, and they are less than 10% of the subprimes. The Bush's lack of supervision of the mortgage market encouraged very profitable and high commission sales of overvalued homes to underfunded buyers. That created the meltdown as we all know it. So you are against social security, medicare, medicaid. You like to see old and sick people suffer and die in destitute. NEED I SAY MORE?
Re: What are you smoking?  11/12/2009 10:20:00 PM
And add to that the government deregulation of various regulated monopolies, most visibly the Bell System, where we went from excellent land line phone service at an affordable price, and phones we didn't own, or have to pay for repairs, plus the world's greatest "invention factory" Bell Labs to the less than satisfactory...and costly mess we have now. Good old Western Electric phones and other products made for the Bell phone systems, that seemed to last forever, which are now cheezy products built in China that have inferior engineering and construction! Breaking up the Bell System/AT&T "for our own good" was probably the most harmful "favor" the Government ever forced upon us! Yes, we need ro recapture our former technology superiority and quit punishing success!


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