Survey: Job Losses To Bottom Out

NEW YORK (AP) -- Economists expect the joblessness that has weighed down the nation's economic recovery will start to slowly abate in 2010, but they predict consumers will continue to keep a tight rein on spending, according to a new survey.

While signs have pointed to the end of the recession, joblessness remains rampant. The national unemployment rate jumped to 10.2 percent in October, the highest in 26 years. About 9 million people currently receive unemployment benefits.

The November outlook by the National Association for Business Economics, which is set to be released Monday, shows economists expect net employment losses to bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Employers are seen starting to add to their payrolls after that.

"While the recovery has been jobless so far, that should soon change," said Lynn Reaser, NABE's president and chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. "Within the next few months, companies should be adding instead of cutting jobs."

But even if companies do start restaffing next spring, they aren't expected to ramp up hiring very quickly. Some 7.3 million jobs have been lost since December 2007, according to NABE. Of the 48 panelists surveyed, 61 percent do not expect a complete recovery of those lost jobs until 2012. And they expect the unemployment rate will remain "stubbornly high," averaging 9.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Panelists ranked high unemployment as their second biggest concern over the next five years, expressing "extreme concern" first and foremost about the federal deficit. Those surveyed expect inflation will remain low and the dollar to remain weak, though they see it strengthening against the euro and continuing to be a major reserve currency.

The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the Commerce Department announced last month, a strong signal that the economy is entering a recovery phase from the worst recession since the Great Depression. But the pace of the recovery is expected to be slow because of high unemployment and tight credit.

The latest survey by NABE notes that sluggish consumer spending will continue to weigh on the economy. But it predicts rebounds in housing, growth from business spending as more companies restock lean inventories, and a rise in stock prices.

Economists polled in the survey predict 3 percent real GDP growth in the 2009 fourth quarter, and 3.2 percent growth for all of 2010. For the two years combined, the projected growth is half a percentage point higher than the forecast NABE gave in October.

"Real GDP growth should also be enough to recover losses from the recession and return output to an all-time high by the end of 2010," NABE forecasters predict.

Those surveyed say the housing recovery will gather momentum, helped by low interest rates, with housing starts expected to jump 36 percent and residential investment climbing 9 percent next year. Such results would make 2010 the first year since 2005 that the housing sector contributes to overall growth. Economists expect home prices to gain 2 percent next year, after bottoming out in 2009.

Consumer spending gains are expected to be "lackluster," as workers continue to worry about jobs and investments. Panelists also expect to see a "persistently elevated sense of thrift" as consumers save more. They expect the personal savings rate to average 4 percent in 2010, the highest level since 1998.

Businesses, though, will increase their spending. The survey said the inventory liquidation of the past year will bottom out and companies will restock in 2010, while also spending more on equipment and software because of higher profits.

Corporate profits are expected to gain 12.4 percent in 2010, which the survey said was average for the first year of an economic recovery. All survey respondents expect the stock market to grow in 2010, with the S&P 500 Index seen rising 9.5 percent next year.

The NABE survey of 48 professional forecasters was taken Oct. 24-Nov. 5.

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maybe I was wrong? 11/23/2009 11:10:00 AM It would appear that both economists and meterologists can be wrong and still keep their jobs.
Joblessness 11/23/2009 11:28:00 AM So joblessness is suppose to slowly abate in 2010. People will still continue to be laid off. And this hiring that companies are supposed to do, the pay is certainly going to be much less than previouly paid. And they expect consummers to start buying more? With what?
RE: maybe I was wrong... 11/23/2009 11:43:00 AM Nope. You weren't wrong. It's the same as "I can get elected by being a liar and not have anyone question that ALL those promises I made during the election have been broken. Truly a "lemming" voter pool. That is read 8% unemployment "Cap & Trade", if we spend $700BB for stimulus. WOW....was that wrong, TOO!
I am a whole lot more likely 11/23/2009 11:47:00 AM to believe the meteorologist. Advances in technology have turned weather prediction into more of a science than an art. Economists still like to look back on what has happened and offer (various) explanations. As far a job losses "bottoming out", I might tend to agree. At the rate jobs are being shipped out of the USA, there will soon be few jobs left here to lose. More or less a statement of the obvious.
Economists expect 11/23/2009 11:50:00 AM Come back when you have some real numbers. I don't have much faith in these "Economists expect" pieces. Economists don't run businesses or control budgets, they just "explain" why consumption and production does what it does. I will believe the numbers that show what the economy DID.
What effect will new Health Care Reform bill have. 11/23/2009 12:00:00 PM The journalist should have asked the various economists what effect all the effect of the new taxes contained in the the Health Care Reform bill? Perhaps he was too scared?
The patient has bled out 11/23/2009 12:00:00 PM Perssistant unemployment even at 9.5 % is still too high. The herd is ready to bolt at a moments notice. It will definitely affect the elections next year coupled with the expansive deficit that is occuring. The Federal government needs to invest in infrastructure. Dams for electric power, Nuclear power, soil conservation and roads. They need to give employers a reason to hire. not raise taxes on unemployment insurance and keep more people out of work.
Positive Spins 11/23/2009 12:11:00 PM Now that the health bill is under official debate, the spin is that the economy will rebound quicker than previously thought. That way, the new health bill will only send the economy back to a recession condition, rather than an all-out depression. And, once the one MILLION jobs are created from the TAX,Cap & Trade bill, everyhting will be rosy again!! The Democrats to the rescue!!! Don't buy into this rhetoric, unless disappointment is very enjoyable for you.
Actually, unemployment is going higher... 11/23/2009 12:20:00 PM The Obama administration, full of crooks, cronies and tax cheats, have merely ordered their economist pundits to release this absurd prognosis. We the People need to get to work on Regime Change 2010 and Regime Change 2012. Let's send a message this week by adhering to a national boycott of Black Friday.
AP Writers soon to be out of work... 11/23/2009 12:25:00 PM News survey: AP Writers who report news drivel from the WH will be part of the unemployed soon. This story is just more of that "Hope and Change," crap. Hope for the best, while they rob pilage and steal from the working middle class.
Had Dismal Fundamentals for a decade 11/23/2009 12:27:00 PM Because U.S. manufacturing is not competitive, increased consumption resulted in greater foreign debt. Since prosperity is closely related to consumption, when the dust settled, past "prosperity" was actually funded by foreign debt, and now we have to pay the piper. We must improve our manufacturing or else there is no future. Infrastructure work can provide some of the jobs. Green energy is a gamble, but it provides the much needed jobs. And if we do not do Green energy, in a few years all the other more advanced countries in the world will be more energy efficient than we are, and the third world countries will have cheap labor, and we will lose out to all of them. So if we do not do the Green Energy gamble, we will be dead in the water for sure.
Obama the hero 11/23/2009 12:45:00 PM I'm confused, didn't the majority of Americans vote for this socialist dictator?! I hope no one here has flip flopped on their vote!
Green energy is okay - but we have domestic fossil... 11/23/2009 1:03:00 PM It will be too long before green energy sources can supplant fossil fuel. We need to develop our own resources and become energy independance NOW. That alone will balance the trade deficit. The Enviro-Statists like Obama won't allow this approach because they WANT to collapse the economy - their implementation of the Cloward and Piven (Columbia University) strategy to bring about the fall of capitalism - the prime goal of the hard left (Obama, Soros, Moore, el al).
How About This? 11/23/2009 1:34:00 PM What if the world just drew the last barrel of oil from the ground yesterday? The urgency to develop energy saving technology would be a lot greater. As fuel becomes scarce, people will have to adjust their lives, as scary as that sounds. Yes, we would each have to change our lifestyle. We would not have a choice. The truth is that oil rationing would begin driving the costs up long before the last drop of oil was drawn. There used to be a saying that “Necessity is the mother of Invention”. Good, innovative companies will begin to invest in other forms of energy when the costs come into play. However, currently government intervention is attempting to become the motivator. Cap & Trade is the biggest Ponzi scheme of all.
To get jobs, think like a job creator... 11/23/2009 2:10:00 PM WE NEED JOBS. Raising taxes kills jobs. Kill taxes to get jobs. For well over two years now, Obama has caused America to lose jobs every time he promised to punish job creators during the campaign and currently. Obama continues to massively destroy jobs as he promises to punish job creators and pile up debt on the taxpayers. How high does Congress have to raise taxes on job creators to get them to create more jobs? Every time congress promised to raise taxes on job creators, jobs were lost in America. Every time congress promises to raise taxes on job creators, jobs are still being lost in America. How does punishing job creators create more jobs? It doesn't create jobs, it drives jobs away! How does raising taxes on doctors lower health care costs? Taxing stuff raises the cost of stuff. If congress wants to lower health care costs, wht don't they quit taxing it? Knowing that every penny of corporate tax gets passed on to the consumer, how does raising taxes on corporations help the consumers? How does congress plan to pay off the massive debt of the Obama anti-stimulus plan? Bad managers spend more than they take in and higher taxes are NOT the solution for bad management.
Think it is bad NOW? 11/23/2009 2:47:00 PM Wait for the FABULOUS new HealthCare System to get rammed down our throats. Employers will be NUTS to keep footing the bill for employee health care insurance, when they can drop all their coverage, save that money (goes directly to the bottom line) and all their employees get to join the Government HealthCare line. OH, and since it is manditory, EVEN if you are out of work and receiving benefits, you WILL spend some of those dollars on the Gov healthcare system. OR even if you have NO income, you better have insurance. We will be an "Insurance Poor" citizenry. Believe it or NOT!
RE: Think it is bad NOW... 11/23/2009 3:34:00 PM The ONLY way out (for now) is for We the People to actively get to work on Regime Change 2010 and Regime Change 2012. One big step is to send a message by joining in the national Boycott Black Friday movement this week - don't buy ANYTHING this Friday - period. It will make a BIG difference.
RE: To get jobs, think like a job creator... 11/23/2009 3:41:00 PM Your agruement makes plenty of sense - but, Obama, Giethner, Soros, Pelosi, Reed, Moore, Soros, et al have NO INTEREST WHATSOEVER in fixing the economy. A failed economy serves their agenda - that's what this is all about. These people aren't idiots - they are sinister. Google Cloward and Piven Strategy (Columbia University).
Unemployment and Truth 11/23/2009 3:59:00 PM There is one thing certain and that is the lies continue, the definition of a depression is values drop, housing prices dropped along with everything else except fuel, when the economist start telling the truth that what we are going through is another Depression then maybe we can start to pull out. And that will only happen when something postive is done to create jobs and the health care bill which will not kick in for another 4 years is not going to help anything. America may learn a lesson though and that is BS will not feed you or clothe you, the big speaker will not keep you warm or fed, experience and truth, not hidden agendas are the only real answer.
Re: "job creator" conmment makes no sense 11/23/2009 4:27:00 PM You say "think like a job creator", but you don't. People have no money, there is no demand. Will you, a businessman, open a new store when all the competitors have little business? Will you open a factory when lots of them of are sitting idle. How would you create a job with no demand? Your statement of punishing Job Creators makes no sense because no job creator is punished. Now you start an infrastructure job, pay people to fix a highway. The workers use the money to buy food and clothes and pay rent, and that stimulated the economy, and transportation cost will be less after the highway is fixed, helping the economy further. That is why Japan, Germany, Britain, China, France and the USA are all doing stimulus, and successfully. Instead of burying your head in some "conservative" sand, look around the world and learn.
Doing The Math 11/23/2009 4:28:00 PM About 9 million people currently receive unemployment benefits. Some 7.3 million jobs have been lost since December 2007, according to NABE. How can you have more people on unemployment than jobs being lost? If this is how the National Association for Business Economics does the math, that explains why the economy is in the current state of affairs. They need to go back to grade school.
ATTRACT job creators, don't repel them. 11/23/2009 4:45:00 PM China HAS money to spend anyway they want. Congress has NO money. Congress has spent ALL the money in the bank for the next 19 years and is now borrowing money for 30 years at 4% for every trillion it gives away, it costs Americans over a $Trillion in interest! Congress punishes job creators with higher taxes, driving jobs away from America instead of attracting job creators. We don't need repulsive policies. Congress should make AMERICA THE place to go to create jobs by ATTRACTING job creators with lower taxes.How mant times do we have to pay for the SAME roads and bridges?
I just came back from... 11/23/2009 6:55:00 PM Toys R Us. They now are selling a cash register with microphone just like the ones in McDonalds drive through. At least they are trying to train the newest generation for Jobs of the Future in America. I'm Sorry but I'm not kidding!
RE:"job creator" conmment makes no sense 11/23/2009 7:21:00 PM You people who think that government spending can revive the economy are fundamentally wrong! Stop comparing government spending like priming the pump. It is more analogous to a cigarette smoker sucking the oxygen out of the air and blowing smoke to create an unhealthy atmosphere for everyone else. But I guess nicotine is a lot like government money – it very addicting. The biggest job killing measures in Congress right now is Health Care and Cap & Trade. Anyone that has a new innovative idea and is trying to analyze the rate of return on their investment is wondering how this will affect their business. They have to sit on the sidelines to see what this new “shake down” will cost. Investors like predictability, not uncertainty. More taxes bring more complexity to businesses. The government should put a stop to rewarding incompetent companies that create expensive products that nobody wants.
Understand Fiscal policy priming the pump 11/24/2009 9:21:00 AM Geovernment spending is part of fiscal policy. When the economy is in boom, there is no need to add government spending (But Bush did). Just like when the pump is flowing. It is only when the pump has stopped then it is necessary to prime the pump. Government and consumers had spent themselves broke during the Bush years. Now the economy is broke because everybody is in debt. People have no money to spend and demand for goods spiral down, and jobs disappear when there is little demand for goods. Stimulus creates jobs and puts money in people's pockets. That increases demand for goods and that in turn creates jobs. That is undisputed basic fiscal economics straight from the text books and that is why the whole world follows this stimulus recipe.
Spending under Bush VERY small compared to Obama 11/24/2009 10:56:00 AM Obama has already spent and has committed to spend an amount that exceeds the SUM of all spending signed into law by all past Presidents - and that's in his first 11 months. Priming the pump - as seen in the Reagan years is done by cutting taxes. Deficit spending only has the effect of devaluing the dollar - which we can clearly see from Obama's actions today (price of gold).
Stimulus is investment, not spending 11/24/2009 11:49:00 AM When a businessman borrows money to build a factory, he is investing, not spending. The bipartisan Congressional Budget Office had determined each stimulus dollar will generate $2 to $2.50 in economic activities, so it is an investment, not spending. Now when you buy a plasma TV, you are spending, not investing. Reaganomics was a disaster. The pump was "primed" to flow money to the already rich. David Stockman openly confessed that he fudged the computer program to show that "Voodoo economics" would work. After 2 years of Voodoo, the unemployment topped 10.8%, still unmatched since the Great Depression.
Stimulus is spending, not investment 11/24/2009 12:35:00 PM Investing is defined as using or venturing money that you HAVE to capitalize a business or buy a comodity. The government DOES NOT HAVE ANY MONEY - period!!! When the government spends money, they are spending the CITIZEN'S MONEY!!! That's money that citizens would have spent, saved or invested - which would have primed the proverbial pump. Left-wing loons that call the Reagan tax cuts Voodoo economics are morons - pure and simple. The unemployment rate in 1982 (as you cite) was under 10% (not 10.8% as you cite). During the next 6 years of the Reagan administration (once the tax cuts had time to work), the unemployment rate dropped to just over 5% - all of this data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics - not some left-wing loon pundit. Those that don't learn history are doomed to repeat it - we are repeating the Great Depression because Obama and his gang of crooks, cronies, liars and tax cheats don't know history.
RE: Stimulus is Investment... 11/24/2009 1:42:00 PM Maybe so, but you won't have to wait much longer for that 70 year old record to fall. 11% here we come.
Straight from the text books 11/24/2009 2:51:00 PM If the text books are right, we wouldn't be in this mess. For the long haul, we would be better off changing the economic text books to match the real world rather than writing text books and hoping the world will conform.
Text books are certainly right 11/24/2009 3:40:00 PM The entire world and all the major economists are following the text books, and pulling out of the recession. If we had followed "let them fail" conservatism, we would have global financial collapse and depression like in the 1930's. Investment is getting more than putting in, and narrow definition meaning venture capital is just simple ignorance. Business borrow money to start a company also, from banks etc. When business cannot get loans like in this banking crisis, the government steps in and provide stimulus money which for infra-structure etc which is venture capital and the entire business world will benefit from better roads for example, and that is the "profit". People, please broaden your understanding of economics, especially macro economics.
More on Voodoo 11/24/2009 3:53:00 PM Voodoo economics was aptly named by Pesident Bush (41). Unemployment in Dec 1982 was 10.8% and that was official. What reversed the unemployment? You guesses it - STIMULUS. Reagan started STAR WARS GOVERNMENT SPENDING which employed a lot of people and bought a lot of electronics. All the effort went to waste since no product was useful but those jobs and materials put money in people's pockets which grew the economy. But foreign debt was 5 times higher at the end of Reagan years compared to the beginning. Obama is DOING THE SAME STIMULUS thing except now the products are USEFUL, such as roads. That was what FDR did.
When the government taxes... 11/24/2009 4:08:00 PM ...then wastes all but $0.17 of each Dollar - then spends that money on jobs that don't create and NEW business (no innovation, no new product(s), no new manufacturing capability, no new manufacturing technology, no REAL value added - there is ONLY a loss for the economy - not a gain - and certainly no expansion - and certainly no value added. About the Great Depression - we are there again - and by design. Obama is ignoring history and the failures of FDR (who caused the Great Depression to go on an 10 years longer than it would have otherwise). Obama has driven us deeper into the economic abis. Then again, Obama doesn't intend to recover the economy - he is instead intending to worsen the economy - it is a left-wing loon strategy called Cloward-Pivens (a couple Columbia Professors - Obama did his undergrad "study" at Columbia). Google Cloward-Pivens - get your ducks aligned.
FDR was an abject failure... 11/24/2009 4:16:00 PM ...as is Obama, an his administration full of crooks, cronies, Chicago mobsters, union thugs, liars, tax cheats, Marxists and radical left-wing loons. The Great Depression ended because - and only because - of WWII.
Read history books from other nations 11/24/2009 4:33:00 PM Historians across the world agreed that FDR saved the USA from the great depression. And WW2 (was not a tax cut)was a huge dose of government spending (a stimulus even if no product made was useful to the consumer). Right wing nuts are now trying to rewrite history. Stimulus has to be "shovel ready" jobs to happen fast, and new technology is planned for Green energy jobs to be created, and we are already far behind the rest of the world in that catagory. Also adding manufacturing capacity in a recession is fool hardy, there are already too many factories sitting idle!
Jobs / FDR 11/25/2009 12:21:00 PM It is clear that some folks have never heard of the CCC or the WPA, these were two of the groups created during the Depression to get people back to work on public projects. The bigeest problem in America right now is that we are divided down the middle by political statements that have been made by people who lack basic leadership. You do not build a team by declaring you are going to take the wealth from the well off and give to those less fortunate, Robin Hood is a fairly tale we will stay in a quagmire until a postive mood moves this nation in the right direction. When those who have been elected start listening to the public we may half a chance.

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