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Analysts Predict June Auto Sales Crash
By Tom Krisher And Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Auto Writers
Manufacturing.Net - July 01, 2008

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DETROIT (AP) -- With General Motors shares trading near their lowest levels in more than half a century and gasoline prices rising to record levels, the auto industry braced to deliver another bleak monthly report on auto sales.

Industry analysts said June sales could drop to their lowest monthly rate in 16 years, with several predicting another double-digit dip.

Toyota Motor Corp. could even grab the U.S. sales lead from General Motors Corp. for the first time.

Ahead of the sales announcements, GM shares fell 43 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $11.07 in morning trading Tuesday. They had briefly fallen as low as $10.57 during Monday's session, the lowest level since Sept. 22, 1954, before recovering, according to the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago.

Ford Motor Co. shares also fell, dropping 18 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $4.63 in morning trading Tuesday after sinking to a new 52-week low of $4.46 a day earlier before recovering.

Auto sales had seen seven straight declining months as of May, the longest period of consecutive monthly drops in eight years, according to Edmunds.com.

"We're going to report much lower sales versus last year," Chrysler LLC co-Vice Chairman Jim Press told reporters Monday as he and fellow Vice Chairman Tom LaSorda announced that the company would close a St. Louis-area minivan plant and cut a shift at a pickup truck factory due to sagging demand.

Press said the mix of vehicles that U.S. consumers typically have bought -- more trucks and sport utility vehicles than cars -- continued to change in June, with more fuel-efficient models making gains. Chrysler showrooms were quieter during the month, he said.

When customers do buy, they're picking smaller cars, crossovers and hybrids. The demand for more fuel-efficient vehicles has been a boon to Japanese automakers such as Toyota and Honda, which rely less heavily on trucks and sport utility vehicles than the Detroit Three, while Ford and GM are having a hard time keeping up with consumer interest in hybrids.

In May, Toyota sold just 9,340 fewer vehicles than GM and grabbed 18.4 percent of the U.S. market compared with GM's 19.1 percent. As recently as 2005, GM controlled 26 percent of the U.S. market to Toyota's 13 percent.

Still, Toyota, which saw sales drop 4 percent in May, is having its share of problems. The automaker has been unable to ramp up production of its Prius and Camry hybrids to meet demand.

Toyota spokesman John Hanson said the company set its production schedule well before the current run-up in gas prices and can't increase production because it doesn't have enough plant capacity or batteries and other specialized components.

Toyota makes 250,000 Prius hybrids per year, of which 60 percent to 70 percent are allocated to the United States. Hanson said Toyota has considered building a new U.S. plant to make the Prius and other hybrids but has made no decision on that. The Camry hybrid is produced at Toyota's plant in Georgetown, Ky., but many of its parts are shipped from Japan.


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Wake up   7/1/2008 1:06:00 PM
I hope this crash in auto sales and share prices will wake up the three big to improve their industry toward supper effecient cars
Selectivity  7/1/2008 2:53:00 PM
Notice please how the authors here continue to talk up Toyota at the expense of "The Detroit Three". For instance, they mention the percentage drop in Toyota sales volume, but don't do the same for the American manufacturers, instead only stating their drop in share price, thereby inferring the American manufacturers' sales volume dropped further than the offshore brands. How about giving fair comparison information in your articles, authors and editors!!! Especially, when your article infers how terribly the US manufacturers are doing. How about doing an actual side by side comparison on how many 30+ MPG cars each manufacturer is marketing, instead of continually restating how detroit has sold more of the larger vehicles in the PAST.
Show the whole picture  7/3/2008 1:07:00 PM
The article may be selective, but the whole picture is even worse for the Big Three. The 2 top selling cars in June I believe were the Civic and Corolla. I think the Cobalt may fall in the top 10 somewhere, but the powertrains are pretty far behind those of Toyota and Honda. The dark horse continues to by Hyundai, which is not mentioned but has an excellent portfolio of small cars and crossovers without any exposure to trucks & SUV's. Good small cars start with a good powertrain. GM and Ford still have their work cut out to get to the same level of refinement. And Chrysler? ...well they've resorted to working with Nissan to make small cars worth buying. The Caliber get mediocre mile, lacks refinement and overall have gotten poor reviews. It was a bad replacement for the Neon. This might be the best strategy for all 3. Maybe GM can revive a deal with Toyota to make a new Prism. Ford can bring over some more Mazda designs (The Focus should have gotten the new Mazda 3 chassis) and Chrysler can make some more deals with Nissan to make small cars. Meanwhile, revive the truck market, people still need them, but downsize the chassis and powertrain. Make some long stroke 4.6 - 5.0L V8's with cylinder deactivation.
Fair? Depends  7/8/2008 12:51:00 PM
It really is hard to feel sorry for the big three when they produce low quality products. American built BMW's, Mercedes, (good quality vehicles) tells me that American processes have room for improvement...remember these are the same giants that laughed at Dr. Deming and did not think it necessary to have his wisdom and insight......my take, it's that proud haughty attitude; now Japan quality over takes the US hmmmm imagine that.....competition is the best thing for any free market...maybe the big three should take a look inside their own back yard and produce what others have/are successfully producing......


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